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2. The literature review on problems of forecasting of bankruptcy.

The problem of forecasting of bankruptcy at the commercial enterprises gains the increasing value with development in Russia of market economy. Bankruptcy, as a matter of fact, is that tool with which help of force of a competition define and deduce from the market the weakest enterprises, allowing economy to develop dynamically and effectively, getting rid from the unprofitable enterprises.

Thus owners of each concrete enterprise, its partners are interested in inverse - effective and longer functioning of the enterprise. And a possibility to predict approach of crisis situations and bankruptcy allows not only to raise knowledge at a decision making, but also to promote crisis prevention. Thus, interest in tools of modelling of bankruptcy from businessmen exists constantly. It in the

Turn, occurrence of set of the models which are based on the various has called

The data advancing set of criteria. Since 60th years of the last century, foreign scientists develop tens various techniques. Carrying out of similar researches in the conditions of command-administrative economy of the USSR had no neither scientific, nor a common sense. Thus, in a passage situation to market forms of managing when need for methods of forecasting of bankruptcy it was exhibited in all sharpness, adaptation of the techniques developed by the western scientists to realities of the Russian economy was as a matter of fact one of the most true, if not the only thing by (considering lack characteristic both methodological, and statistical operating time), allowing Russian

To the enterprises to receive in the order the tool of forecasting and

• bankruptcy prevention.

f it is obvious, that existing western techniques in itself are not ideal and

Have the certain shortages concerning as restrictions, superimposed on character of the initial information, and accuracy of forecasting, their introduction in domestic conditions only adds problems. We will try to define in brief shortages of the basic existing models, to reveal the most essential obstacles in a way of their adaptation to the Russian conditions and

To define possible ways of elimination of these shortages.

j it is necessary to notice, that, despite great many presence

Various methods and the techniques, allowing to predict approach

Bankruptcy of the enterprise to some probability, in this area it is a lot of problems. We will try to designate in brief problems of forecasting of bankruptcy to Russia and shortages of the basic most widespread techniques. In the Russian Federation for the present there is no statistics of bankruptcies of the enterprises because of a youth of institute of bankruptcy in

* F to our country that hampers characteristic workings out based on realities by ours

Economy and directed on authentic forecasting of possible bankruptcy of the enterprises. There is also a problem of reliability of the information on a state of affairs at the concrete enterprises and difficulty of its deriving. The basic public radiant of the information on enterprise functioning is the accounting reporting. The majority of the enterprises makes it only on the basis of Russian β legislations in the field of book keeping. And such reporting has a number

Essential shortages which will be considered further in work. We will pass to the analysis of shortages of concrete techniques of forecasting of bankruptcy.

Wide scientific circles actively investigated a problem of forecasting of bankruptcy from the moment of occurrence of works Bivera (1966) and Altman (1968 [67,58]. Behind small eliminations all works were based on accounting indicators and used corresponding variables. Later researches accepted probability of bankruptcy for an explanatory variable, instead of for the dependent

Indicator. Data about probability of bankruptcy frequently were are taken from the previous researches, thus, besides data of the accounting reporting became the initial information for forecasting. Many researches combined separate financial indicators of activity of the enterprise with Altman's Z-account or O-account Olsona which are most popular of all models.

In the given section we will try to state an estimation of efficiency of the models based on accounting data, in bankruptcy forecasting.

There are some reasons, forcing to reflect on efficiency of techniques of forecasting of the bankruptcy, based on the accounting information. While a main objective of models of forecasting of bankruptcy is the prognosis concerning the future events, the financial reporting exists to estimate enterprise functioning in the past, and, accordingly, cannot submitive the necessary information on an enterprise condition in the future. Besides, the accounting reporting (including in our country) is formed with an assumption going-concern - the supposition, that the enterprise will not stop the activity in the near future (including as a result of bankruptcy). Such
In the image, possibilities of use of data of the accounting reporting in the exact and reliable prognosis concerning bankruptcy of the enterprise are initially limited by the purposes of use of the reporting. Besides, the conservatism principle frequently causes the underestimated estimation of assetses concerning their market

Costs, in particular it concerns the basic means and non-material assetses.

These singularities inherent in the accounting reporting, inevitably limit efficiency of any tools of the forecasting based on the accounting

Data.

One more shortage of the models based on accounting data, their inability to consider instability of the prices of assetses is. With other things being equal, the probability of bankruptcy increases with instability growth. To

To the example, two enterprises having identical indicators of a relation of assetses and

Passives, can have various degree of probability of bankruptcy depending on susceptibility of the assetses to oscillations of the prices. Thus, instability of the prices is the important indicator which is not taken into consideration by models, similar

Altman's to models and Olsona.

The securities market represents a radiant alternative and, probably, more exact data as accumulates except accounting and set of other information. In spite of the fact that potential applicability of the information of a securities market in bankruptcy forecasting have been recognised for a long time (as an example it is possible to reduce researches Bivera (1968)) [67], in practical application was the basic difficulty what image to extract the necessary information from the existing market

Indicators.

Bankruptcy prediction as the independent problem has arisen in the most developed in economic sense the capitalist countries (and first of all, in f the USA) right after the Second World War terminations. It was promoted by growth

Numbers of bankruptcies in connection with sharp reduction of military orders, non-uniformity of development of firms, prosperity of one and ruin of others. Naturally, there was a problem of a possibility of a priori definition of the conditions conducting firm to

To bankruptcy.

In the beginning this problem dared at purely qualitative, empirical level and, naturally, led to essential errors. The first serious attempts to develop an effective technique of forecasting of bankruptcy concern to 60th and are connected with development of computer technics.

Two basic approaches to a bankruptcy prediction are known. The first is based on financial data and includes operating in some factors - Z-factor gaining the increasing popularity Altman (USA), factor Tafflera (Great Britain) [74] and others, and also ability to analyze structure of balance and to do corresponding conclusions about

F a financial condition of the enterprise. The second starts with data on gone bankrupt

To the companies also compares them to corresponding data of the investigated company.

The first approach, undoubtedly effective at bankruptcy forecasting, has three essential shortages. At first, the companies experiencing difficulties, in every possible way detain the publication of the reports, and, thus, concrete data can remain years inaccessible. Secondly, even if data also are informed, they can appear transformed so that f to hide existing problems. For the companies in similar circumstances

Rushing is characteristic not to produce the exact information on the activity, frequently leading to falsification. The special ability inherent not in all contributors Is required to select arrays of the improved data and to estimate degree

Veiled ™. The third difficulty consists that some

The relations deduced according to activity of the company, can

To testify to insolvency while others - to draw the foundation for an inference about stability or even some improving. Such situations meet often enough, and in them are besides necessary both essential experience directly in the field of bankruptcy, and knowledge of branch and other singularities of the investigated enterprise.

The second approach is based on comparison of indications of already gone bankrupt companies from statistically treated arrays with those indications of the investigated company. For last 50 years the set of lists is published

The gone bankrupt companies. Some of them contain their exposition on tens indicators. Unfortunately, the majority of lists is not ordered by these data on degree of importance and in one the care of sequence is not exhibited. Besides, as it was marked above, lack of statistical bases on the enterprises - to bankrupts along with methodological nerazrabotannostju is an essential obstacle in a way of development of researches in the given area in our country. Attempt to compensate these shortages is the method of a mark estimation (A-account Argenti).

Unlike the described "quantitative" approaches to a prediction of bankruptcy as independent it is possible to select the "qualitative" approach based on study of separate performances, inherent in business,
Developing in a direction to bankruptcy. If for the investigated enterprise

Presence of such performances is characteristic, it is possible to give the expert judgement about

Development unfortunate trends.

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Before to pass directly to exposition of the techniques realising these approaches, it is necessary to understand accurately what exactly we are going to predict. Frequently it is considered, that bankruptcy and crisis at the enterprise - concepts synonymous; bankruptcy, actually, also is considered as extreme display of crisis. Has actually put is differently - the enterprise is subject to various aspects of crises (economic, financial, administrative) and bankruptcy - only one of them.

All over the world it is accepted to understand financial crisis as bankruptcy, that is inability of firm to carry out of the current obligations. Besides it, the firm can test an economic crisis (a situation when material resources of the company are used was ineffectively) and control crisis (the ineffective

Use of human resources, that often means also the low

Competence of a management and, hence, inadequacy of the administrative

Solutions to environment requirements). Accordingly, various techniques of a prediction of bankruptcy as it is accepted to name them in domestic practice, actually, predict various aspects of crises. For this reason the estimations received with their help, quite often so strongly differ. Probably, all these techniques would be more true to name crisis - prognoznymi (K-prognoznymi).

The another matter, that to any of the designated aspects of crises can lead to a blow-up, death of the enterprise. Thereupon, understanding the bankruptcy mechanism as

It is conditionally possible to name de jure recognition of such blow-up, the given techniques

Techniques of a prediction of bankruptcy. Any of them not Is represented, however, that

Can claim for use as universal because of "specialisation" on any one aspect of crisis. Expedient tracing of dynamics of a modification of resultants of indicators on several of them therefore seems. The choice of concrete techniques, obviously, should be dictated by branch singularities in which the enterprise works. Moreover, even techniques can and should be exposed to updating taking into account specificity of branches.


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A source: Chelyshev Alexander Nikolaevich. Development of instrumental methods for predicting bankruptcy of enterprises. DISSENTATION for the degree of candidate of economic sciences. Moscow - 2006. 2006

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