# 2.3 Program of statistical modelling «REGMOD»

The program «REGMOD», developed under the task and with participation of the author for a statistical analysis and modelling of properties of oil represents a mathematical apparatus intended for regressionnogo of the analysis of processes of oil refining by a method of "a black box».

In the program the algorithms of the least square method steady against errors of a rounding off and badly caused matrixes are used.

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Result of calculations by means of the program «REGMOD» are regressionnye kind models

Y=B0+Bl*X1+B2*X2+B3*X3 + +Вт *Хт, (2.94)

Where Y - dependent variable,

X], Х2, Х3... Ht - the basic explanatory variables, and also additional,

Received from the cores (degree, the relation, etc.),

In, In], В2, В3, W - the factors selected by the program,

t - quantity variable the basic and additional (from 1 to 25).

Each variable (Yи X) represents a file of values (supervision). The least quantity of supervision-5 (on smaller quantities of supervision the least square method is inapplicable) the greatest quantity of supervision-100. Target data are factors of the equation (2.94) estimations of an error of the forecast, value of factors of plural correlation and determination, a matrix of twin correlation, etc. the Program is developed on the instructions of the author by chair «Automation of technological processes» SamGTU. Participation of the author consisted in statement of a problem and program debugging on concrete data files.

2.4 Methods of research and applied criteria

As it is specified above the major research objective the choice funktsionala for an operative estimation of efficiency of technological process of rectification is. Efficiency of process of rectification at local level (at level of separate installation or a column) can be estimated from thermodynamics positions, from positions of quality of products and from positions of the general or specific expenses for process. Therefore the basic methodological question of research was revealing of communications of thermodynamic efficiency, quality of division of products and the general (or specific) power inputs on process. As criterion of thermodynamic efficiency of rectification at a modelling stage the criterion is applied May -

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kova [73-75]. As criterion of quality of division it is applied criteria of the sum of impurities in products, power inputs were estimated by means of the energy sum for-trachivaemoj on creation of steam streams in a column and energy taken away by condensers. The methodology of research of a statics of process was under construction on the basis of the principles of its modelling offered by Anisimov [57-51, 63]. Two basic methodical approaches were used:

Active experiments on the determined mathematical models of process of rectification in polytypic columns with various raw materials, by means of expressly developed program «POLIFUN».

Passive experiments during quality monitoring neftej. Statistical regressionnyj the analysis and modelling of properties of petromixes by means of expressly developed program «REGMOD», and also standard programmno-mathematical means of a statistical analysis (function Exel).

The purpose of active mathematical experiments - structural and parametrical identification of typical properties of a statics of process, that is reception of dependences of efficiency of process from its basic factors. For dimension decrease the general problem dekompozirovana on problems of essentially smaller dimension.

Accordingly all parametres broke on two groups: constructional and regime. Therefore in the analysis it is possible to evolve (table 2.4 and the schema in drawing 2.3) two sorts of experiments:

Studying of influence on efficiency of rectification of constructional parametres {).

Studying of influence on efficiency of regime operating parametres (U).

Table 2.4 - the Classification list of factors of process of rectification

The name of parametre Type of parametre of optimisation Level or a stage of research the Note 1 2 3 4 Type of a wiper And * (Constructional) Designing a food Plate ^ "(Constructional) Designing In the presence of several inputs of a food can be 58

Xdi, Xwi ~ the maintenance; th component in distillate and a bottom product accordingly;

ZFj - The maintenance of//th component in raw materials;

p - Total number of components in raw materials.

Besides, follow-up and in parallel, the criterion of the sum of impurities () in adjacent products (for example, distillate and a cube) was used simplified and more clear for experts.

b t

M^Xw^YaXdi (2.96)

/ •I ЫЫ\

Where t - total number of the components distributed between distilla

Volume and a cube (komponentny-impurity),

- Number of a key component (division border).

Structural identification by means of the offered technique of optimisation study includes consideration of dependences of the chosen criteria of Maykov (N), and criterion of the sum of impurities of M from two groups of parametres (table 2.4)): at the first stage constructional (and managing directors (U) at the second stage.

The dependences received at the second stage were used for working out and application of hardware-software complexes of operative optimisation of process in a real time mode.

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2.5 Conclusions under chapter 2

Objects for researches by means of mathematical modelling are defined and described.

With participation and under the guidance of the author the specialised programmno-mathematical apparatus is developed for the determined and statistical modelling of technological process of the program «POLIFUN» and «REGMOD». Thus as a mathematical apparatus of the program of modelling of a statics of a rectification column algorithmic schema Tile-Geddesa-Hollanda with following modifications is applied:

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Modification of algorithm for calculation of two inputs of a food.

Modification of algorithm for calculation of a difficult column with an off-stream conclusion.

Introduction of the block of the control and management of convergence with the graphic interface.

The key feature of the modified technique applied in the program, consists in possibility of carrying out of one-factor experiment that allows to supervise change of values of criterion of Maykov in details.

Methodological principles and criteria of researches of process in rectification columns of various type by means of experiments on mathematical models are chosen.

On the basis of the chosen methodological principles and criteria the technique of the analysis of process of rectification by decomposition of the general problem and decrease in its dimension is developed.

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