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Intellectual system of selection, an estimation and management proekyotami within the limits of an is innovative-technological consortium

All projects which will act in the centre kompetentsy, should pass an internal estimation and selection about their granting on poyoluchenie a financial backing. At the same time, considering, that is created innovayo
Tsionno-technological consortium, it should develop innovative technological business to some extent.

Hence, be required a control system of projects. It was above said, that economically neyotselesoobrazno to create new organizational structure, hence, such funktsional should make the centre kompetentsy NTI.

Within the limits of the indicated centre creation of an intellectual expert control system by projects (further - intellectual sisteyoma) is offered, to model of realisation of the project supplying construction and the control isyopolnenija the project. The given centres are virtual structures and do not require corresponding expenses (a premise, municipal payments, etc.). The intellectual system is offered to be applied on a basis nejronyonoj networks, computing means of expert system can form cloudy architecture.

In intellectual expert system it is possible to allocate four soyostavljajushchie, supplying management of realisation innovative proyoekta, consisting of functional operating elements (formal nejronov).

The first component is connected with selection and an estimation technical parayometrov the innovative project, it supplies model construction realiyozatsii the project, including its display financial and economic harakteyoristik.

The second component includes optimum selection of suppliers mayoterialov and accessories, and in intellectual system are considered quality of works on hand (history of the supplier) and logistics. The given element has access to external information resources, obespeyochivajushchim a choice, at least, one supplier material tsenyonostej for realisation of the project from all file available informayotsii. Selection is carried out according to the set algorithm on opreyodelennym to parametres, optimum for the given innovative project.

The third component supplies likelihood model for kontroyolja performances of the innovative project during each concrete period vremeyoni.

At last, the fourth component supplies communication with the centre moniyotoringa and managements of the project and the computer system of the customer (inyovestora) by means of which realisation of bargains is supplied, otnoyosjashchihsja to the innovative project (drawing 20).

The intellectual system producing upravlenicheskie resheyonija on the basis of interpretation of data, is connected by lines wire or besyoprovodnoj communications with the centre of monitoring and management of the project, apparatnoyoprogrammnye which means supply the direct control of realisation of the project and interaction with the investor of the project. That is, the centre of monitoring and management of the project by means of offered IntelYOlektualnoj systems, excludes direct sharing and influence of the person, konyotroliruet all processes connected with an estimation and realisation tehnologicheskoyogo of the project and expenses of resources. Key feature of the offered system as a whole is ability without sharing of the person to select at fulfilment of the project of optimum suppliers of works and services, and also konyotrolirovat a course of realisation of the project.

Intellectual control system of the innovative project reayolizovana on the basis of a neural network - a single-layered network nejronov in which each formal nejron is connected with all the others, realising the mechanism of perception of separate objects and structures.

Drawing 20 - the Intellectual control system of the innovative project in frameworks innovative

Technological consortium

In the network used in given intellectual system fragments of a neural network are allocated for maintenance of the functions necessary for praktiyocheskogo of realisation of the innovative project. Each separate group of elements of a neural network is interconnected with other elements of a neural network.

Management of the innovative project at use of the offered system based on use of intellectual system of cloudy architecture on the basis of a neural network, is carried out as follows:

1) construction of model of realisation of the project on the basis of reception tehnicheyoskih characteristics of the project, account of quantity of required materials and truyodoyomkosti works;

2) formation of offers at an optimum choice of suppliers of materials, works or services according to history of suppliers, imejuyoshchejsja in an open network the Internet, and also with allowance for logistical osobennoyostej;

3) granting of the necessary information to the investor (customer), and also the centre of monitoring and management of the project;

4) inquiry of the investor at the centre of monitoring and management of the project neobyohodimyh additional characteristics of the project, and also the information about isyopolniteljah the project with allowance for their technological level and technological podyogotovlennosti;

5) decision-making on financing of the project,

6) allocation of financial resources;

7) continuous monitoring (control) of a course of fulfilment of the project with isyopolzovaniem methods of the intellectual analysis of data;

8) completion of the project and complete set formation dokumenyotatsii, payments to suppliers of materials and executors of works (services) on reyozultatam monitoring on the basis of data of the centre of monitoring and management of the project and to results of the analysis of works of expert system.

Thus, using data of monitoring of the innovative project, processed with application of artificial intelligence techniques, probably to define an economic condition at each stage of realisation of the project and to solve the economic problems connected with development, monitoring, obespeyocheniem necessary resources of the given project without sharing of the person that allows to lower labour input of managerial processes by the project and minimiziyorovat possibility of undesirable actions at project realisation.

As an example we will consider the decision of a problem of an estimation of a realizability of projects for the investor at the limited financing on dynamic model.

The problem of an estimation of a realizability of projects at limited finansirovayonii means belongs to the class of problems of optimisation of distribution investitsiyoonnyh resources under several projects and the estimation is reduced to an estimation of each project on one or several indicators of discounting of a cash flow and a choice of that project at whom it will appear better. For example, if rassmatriyovaemye projects give in to crushing, i.e. it is possible to realise the project not tolyoko entirely, but also its any part, the decision-making scheme thus svoyoditsja to following steps:

Step 1. For each project the indicator - an index rentayobelnosti (profitableness) of the investment (profitability index, PI) settles up:

Where:

- b (t) - the future monetary inflow (incomes) to the period t;

- c (t) - the future monetary outflow (costs) during the period t;

- K0 - Investments in 0;

- And - the discounting rate;

- n - term of realisation of the project (term of a life of the project).

Step 2. Projects are ranged on decrease PI.

Step 3. The investment portfolio joins the first tproektov, koyotorye in the sum can be financed in complete volume. The next project undertakes not in full, and in that its part in which it can be financed.

However if considered projects do not give in to crushing, the combination of the projects maximising sumyomarnyj the pure resulted income (Net present value, NPV) which is reduced to a difference between discounted, as a rule, by the moment of the beginning of the project, costs of all prirostnyh significances of monetary profits of the project and diskonyotirovannymi investment costs in this case will be optimum:

Where:

- Kt - investment costs in a year t,

- b (t) - the future money income (inflow) to the period t;

- c (t) - the future monetary cost (outflow) during the period t;

- And - a call money rate on the capital (the reductions, the accepted norm dohodnoyosti);

- nK - duration of the investment period;

- n π - term of realisation of the project (term of a life of the project).

As the given problem concerns a classical problem we will decide it meyotodom dynamic programming in return time.

Let's assume, that the investor possesses money resources in razmeyore With which it can invest to (enclose) in nпроизводственных inveyostitsionnyh projects, each of which is characterised:

- In size of required investments Ck;

- Significance of pure adjusted present value NVPk.

It is necessary to choose some number of the projects having some efficiency which we will judge on the sum pure resulted stoi -

110 pave, i.e. For k th project efficiency NVPkи investment Ck is set. The total volume of investments of the selected projects should not exceed deyonezhnye means at a rate of C0 which the enterprise possesses.

Problem statement consists in the following. It is necessary to select proyoekty, supplying the maximum total efficiency at ograniyochenii on total volume of investments:

Despite simplicity of the formulation, the investment problem is NP - complete.

Using the basic idea of dynamic programming, we will reduce the decision of a problem containing nпеременных, to the decision of some more simple zayodach optimisation, for example, one-dimensional problems of optimisation. For this purpose vloyozhim an investment problem in family of problems of the same nature, as a result cheyogo we will receive operated system:

Parametres of a condition of operated system on k th step of optimisation

111

Where x0 = C0 - an initial condition (k = 0), and xn = 0 - a final condition.

The equations of conditions look like:

Set of admissible significances of a variable of a condition xk-1upravljaemoj systems for shch managements we will designate through Xk-1, being podyomnozhestvom sets of significances of parametres X = {0, 1., C0}, connected with danyonoj a problem. Here a unit of measure of set of admissible significances pereyomennoj conditions xk-1mozhet to be [rub], [thousand rbl.] etc. Besides, in zavisiyomosti from scale of investments, digitization step can be 10, 100, 1000 etc.

The initial problem evidently enters in considered semejstyovo if to put k = 1.

The management admissibility ukна k th step is defined by an inequality

For the decision of a problem with each k-м a condition of operated system svjayozhem function Bellmana from (n - k + 1) the variables, characterising summaryonuju efficiency from data of k th to last n th step:

112

Having chosen on k th step some any management ukсистема from a condition xk-1pridet in a condition

According to a principle of an optimality what ukмы would not choose, on posleyodujushchih steps management {uk+1..., un} should get out so that function Bellmanadostigala of the maximum significance.

Therefore it is necessary to choose management ukтак that it in sovokupyonosti with optimum control on the subsequent steps, since (k+1)-ro, would lead to the general maximum of function Bellmana on n - k + 1 steps, nayochinaja with k th up to the end.

This position in the analytical form can be written down in a kind rekurrentyonogo the parity which have received the name of equation Bellmana in return vreyomeni (return equation Bellmana):

Function Bellmanaudovletvorjaet to the recurrent equation

Bellmana with the entry condition:

Thus, according to a principle of an optimality account znayocheny sequences funktsijdlja k = n, n - 1., 2, 1 ours zayo

Summer residences it is conducted according to the return recurrent equations Bellma - on.

Deciding the equation for definition of a maximum of function Bellmana Bk (xk-1) for n - k + 1 steps, since n th, we define the corresponding optimum

113

Having reached to to = 1 we will define optimum significance of criterion function VV (х0), criterion function of an initial problem coinciding with significance, but we will not receive evidently sequence of optimum control from mnoyozhestva conditional optimum managements corresponding to conditions xk:

u* it is enough for decision vector reception at first from a condition

If set X0возможных of initial conditions is indicated, and also to establish optimum control on 1 step u1* (Т0), then on each step for k = 1, 2., nпоследовательно to execute:

Schematically a chain of return prorace of definition of optimum control it is possible to present in a kind

Then in the end of work of step-by-step procedure we will receive optimum upravyolenie

Let's consider a concrete example of the decision of a problem of investment, in kotoyoroj as investment unit billion rbl. is taken

Let some industrial company (investor) in the present vreyomja considers four independent technological innovative proekyota from which it should choose most for it approaching. kapiyotalovlozhenija for the current period the company can allocate 4 billion rbl. for all vozniyokaet a question: What projects in this case are expedient for choosing the companies? More low in table 10 pure adjusted present values and required obyoyom investments are shown.

Table 10 - Indicators of projects

k - Project number Ck - Required investments, (billion rbl.) NVPk - a pure adjusted present value (billion rbl.) Ranging on NVP
1 1,0 3,0 3
2 2,0 4,0 2
3 1,0 2,0 4
4 3,0 5,0 1

Source: it is made by the author

Problem statement consists in the following. It is necessary to select proyoekty, supplying the maximum total efficiency at ograniyochenii on total volume of investments:

115

Using the basic idea of dynamic programming, we will reduce the decision of a problem of containing 4 variables, to the decision of some more simple zayodach optimisation. For this purpose we will enclose an investment problem in family of problems of the same nature therefore we will receive operated system:

Parametres of a condition of operated system on k th step of optimisation: where x0 = С0 = 4 (billion rbl.) - an initial condition (k = 0), and x4 = 0 - a final condition.

The equations of conditions look like:

Account of significances of functions Bellmana is conducted on all admissible ukот the end to the beginning, k = 4, 3, 2, 1.

For k = 4 we will find significance of function Bellmana for significances of a variable of a condition x3∈X3по to the entry condition formula:

Upravlenieprinimaet significances from admissible set

Managements:

116

We have:

For k = 3 and significances of a variable of a condition x2∈X2управление u3∈U3 accepts significances from admissible set of managements:

For k = 2 and significances of a variable of a condition x1∈X1управление u2∈D2 accepts significances from admissible set of managements:

For k = 1 and significances of a variable of a condition x0 = 4 management u1∈U1 accepts significances from admissible set of managements:

Account process значенийI for k = 4, 3, 2, 1 we will issue in a kind tabyo

litsy 11.

Quantity of lines in it we will define by quantity of admissible conditions. Optimum control on a current step we will allocate with underlining. Thus, optimum significance of criterion function is equal

Table 11 - Process of account of significances

k

Xk-1

4th step (k=4) 3rd step (k=3) 2nd step (k=2) 1st step (k=1)
u4 B (hz) u3 B (x2) u2 B (х1) u1 B (x0)
0 0 0 - - - - - -
1 0 0 0 - - - -
1 2+0 = 2
2 0 0 0

1

2+0=2 - - - -
3 0 0 5 0 - -
1 5 1 1 4+2=6
4 0 0 0 7 0
1 5 1 2+5=7 1 1 3+6 = 9

For optimum control definition it is restored it «obratyonym by run» (in the table optimum control is allocated podcherkivaniyoem):

Which means, that company's resources are necessary for enclosing in 1st, 2nd and 3rd projects.

Thus, on a conditional example it is shown, how the intellectual system can realise selection of innovative technological projects for investors.

3.3

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A source: MOROZOVA MARIA ALEKSANDROVNA. FORMATION And DEVELOPMENT of the INNOVATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE of REGIONAL UNIVERSITIES. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci. Kursk - 2018. 2018

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