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Research of processes of regional innovative development

One of the important indicators characterising level innovatsiyoonnogo of development of regions, dynamics of not financial assets (tabliyotsa 1 0) is.

Table 1 0

Dynamics of not financial assets

Indicators 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Investments in nefiyonansovye assets - all 5,28 6,79 6,12 6,71 8,58 9,77 10,19 10,58 10,74 11,11
Investments in osyonovnoj the capital 5,22 6,71 6,04 6,63 8,45 9,59 10,07 10,38 10,49 10,99
Investments in obekyoty intellektualyonoj properties 0,028 0,031 0,024 0,024 0,039 0,048
Expenses for research and development 0,016 0,022 0,021 0,027 0,034 0,053
Investments in other not financial aktiyovy 0,021 0,037 0,033 0,037 0,063 0,071
Investments in neyoproizvodstvennye assets 0,13 0,15 0,25 0,17

In 2009 decrease in all kinds of not financial investments that was a consequence of financial crisis 2008-2009 During the subsequent periods is observed restoration povyshatelnoj dynamics nefinansoyovyh investments took place.

The analysis of regional dynamics of investments as basic resource inyonovatsionnogo developments has allowed to draw following conclusions (tab. 11).

Table 11 Dynamics of investments into a fixed capital, in % to previous year

Federal district 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Investments into the basic kayopital all) 124,2 106,9 86,5 106,3 110,8 106,8 100,8 98,5 91,6 99,1
The central 124,2 106,9 82,1 104,4 107,2 112,9 105,2 102,8 96,7 98,7
severoyo

The western

113,2 106,0 84,5 115,5 110,0 104,0 90,6 95,7 90,9 108,3
The southern 131,7 118,7 98,4 119,2 110,3 107,4 114,6 88,3 82,1 83,6
severoyo

The Caucasian

136,1 112,4 98,1 111,8 103,3 112,2 107,8 104,2 93,3 96,3
The Privolzhsky 126,1 107,9 83,5 108,1 110,1 109,5 106,9 100,1 92,5 92,3
The Ural 121 111,6 89,6 109,1 114,2 106,4 101,4 103,2 95,7 92,3
The Siberian 126,3 111 86,2 113,5 116,2 111,8 94,1 99,2 83,3 108,8
DalnevoYOstochnyj 118,9 111,7 107 106,1 126,5 88,1 83,2 93,4 96,6 95,8
The Crimean - - - - - - - - 91,2 97,7

Despite negative fluctuations macroeconomic konjunktuyory, positive dynamics is shown by the following federal okyoruga: Northwest (an increase of investment from 90,9 billion rbl.

in 2015 to 108,3 billion rbl. in 2016), Siberian (83,3 billion rbl. and 108,8 billion rbl. sootvetyostvenno).

Positive dynamics of investments on Crimean FO is supplied at the expense of realisation of the largest state infrastructural project - building of the Crimean bridge.

- Privolzhsky, Ural, DalnevostochYOnyj - the items could not strengthen a number of federal districts and have demonstrated ponizhatelyonuju dynamics.

Table 12

Regional structure of investments into a fixed capital, in % to a result

Federal district 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Investments into the basic kapiyotal all) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
The central 26,5 25,9 24,2 23,0 22,3 23,5 24,8 25,7 25,2
The Northwest 12,2 11,9 11,7 12,4 12,1 11,8 10,5 10,1 9,9
The southern 7,4 8,01 8,9 9,9 9,8 10,0 11,2 9,7 8,3
North Caucasian 2,9 0,3 3,3 3,4 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,6 3,5
The Privolzhsky 17,1 16,9 16,0 15,7 15,4 16,0 17,1 17,2 16,8
The Ural 16,6 16,9 16,8 16,3 16,7 16,2 16,1 17,0 17,3
The Siberian 10,6 10,8 10,5 10,7 11,0 11,6 10,7 10,7 9,5
Far East 6,5 6,7 8,6 8,6 9,6 7,7 6,3 5,8 6,1
The Crimean 0,2 0,3
Unallotted volume 3,1

The greatest recession by results of 2015 was observed in Southern fedeyoralnom district (a minus of 1,5 % to level of 2014). However, in 2016 to district udayolos slightly to make up for the missed possibilities in attraction inyovestorov.

Negative dynamics of volumes of investments into a fixed capital on okyorugu has been caused, in particular, by an investment pause in Krasnodaryosky edge (decrease in a share and volumes of investments into 2015 on 27,3 % and on 3,1 items accordingly in comparison with 2014).

Unstable growth rates of investments in Central feyoderalnom district are marked. So, by results of 2015 among outsiders on priyovlecheniju investors - the Ivanovo area (-32,2 %) and the Yaroslavl area (-29,8 %). A pool of leaders of regional development on rates of increase investiyotsy make Belgorod (a gain on 13,7 %) and Lipetsk (a gain on 0,7 %) areas, and also Moscow and the Moscow area.

Drawing 39 - Regional structure of investments into a fixed capital

For 2016, %

For today at Russia there is a sharp necessity for proactive stimulation of innovative activity.

Characterises dynamics of innovative development level innovatsiyoonnoj activity of the organisations which represents specific weight of the organisations which are carrying out technological, marketing, organizayotsionnye innovations, in the general number of the organisations, podvergshihsja statisticheyoskomu to research.

Table 13

Dynamics of innovative activity of the organisations

Federal district 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Innovative activity oryoganizatsy, across the Russian Federation, % including on federal okyorugam: 9,5 10,4 10,3 10,1 9,9 9,3
The central 8,6 10,2 10,9 10,7 10,9 10,9
The Northwest 9,4 11,2 11,0 10,7 10,3 9,3
The southern 7,5 6,5 7,4 7,2 7,7 7,8
North Caucasian 6,2 5,2 6,4 5,9 6,5 4,7
The Privolzhsky 12,3 12,7 11,9 11,7 11,4 10,6
The Ural 11,5 11,5 10,6 9,6 8,9 7,9
The Siberian 8,2 8,8 8,5 9,1 8,8 8,0
Far East 8,6 11,2 10,8 9,5 8,9 7,2
The Crimean 9,6 4,5

From table 1 3 follows, the last years innovative activity of the organisations in the Russian regions gradually decreases. On data poyokazatelju in 2015 is in the lead TSFO - 10,9 %, it follows Privolzhsky FO 10,6 %.

The least significance of an indicator of innovative activity demonstyoriruet North Caucasian FO (4,7 %) and Crimean FO (4,5 %).

As to Crimean FO in it Strategy of development of IT Branch in Crimea for 2015-2020 which main task javyoljaetsja creation in Crimea the progressive environment for realisation innovatsionyonyh projects and development of innovative economy in region is actively introduced.

Prominent aspect in research of the given question is the estimation of level of expenses for researches and workings out (fig. 40).

Drawing 40 - Internal expenses for researches and workings out on kinds of works, in billion rbl.

So, proceeding from analytical data, follows that in 2015 internal expenses on all kinds of works have made more than 795 mlrd. Roubles, thus volume of the expenses directed on realisation of applied researches preyovyshaet of an expense for basic researches.

Given dynamics can have a talk those items, that applied researches yield faster results from introduction in comparison with the fundamental. And their result is more obvious, has the practical importance, we will apply already in modern practice. Fundamental researches are more expensive, are conducted in ready more prodolzhiyotelnom a time continuum, have higher risks of that isyosledovanie will not bring notable results from it kommertsializatsii.

However, importance of investment of basic researches is impossible not dootsenivat. As shows experience of technologically advanced countries, in this question the state item in maintenance fundamenyotalnoj sciences as in respect of creation necessary for attraction potentsiyoalnyh investors of an infrastructure, and in respect of allocation of budgetary funds on financing of processes of creation and development basic tehnoyology new tehniko-technological way is important.

Level of innovative activity is characterised by a share organizayotsy, carrying out innovations, in total amount of the investigated organisations (drawing 41).

Drawing 41-innovative activity of the organisations across the Russian Federation, in %

The analysis shows, that for a twenty years' interval of time innovatsiyoonnaja activity of the organisations in Russia has grown almost in 2 times.

To the factors promoting growth of innovative activity for this period, it is necessary to carry a favorable conjuncture of world market prices on raw materials and power resources, and also realisation importozameshchajushchih actions, in particular, in the agriculture, promoting growth obyoemov domestic production productions.

As a whole dynamics of innovative activity repeats recurrence which shows gross national product and volume of investments. Two are traced tsikyola with recession in 2008-2009 and 2013-2014

So, in 2013 in the report «New economic policy. A policy of economic growth» under edition of academician Ivantera V.V. slowing down of growth rates of the basic macroeconomic indicators, okazyyovajushchih influence on economic way of Russia was marked, and fears concerning high probability of their long-term recession [XL] expressed.

In maintenance of efficient control with modern economic activities application of methods of exact and duly forecasting is required. The given problem is decided by means of modelling trenyodov. At the heart of modelling there is an assumption that the factors influencing investigated object, are invariable. Thus, the forecast noyosit inertial character.

With the purposes of reception of an objective estimation on the basis of available data about innovative activity of the organisations the short-term forecast on the basis of materials Rosstata is made.

In modelling of communications software product Microsoft Excel is used. The linear equation assumes the following air:

y = 0,155x + 7,883, (11)

Interpretation regressionnyh model factors has allowed opyoredelit the following:

1) the minimum level is equal 7,883 %,

2) x - the number defining an item (the second, the third etc.) year in peyoriode forecasting or an independent variable,

3) growth of innovative activity in Russia on the average on 0,155 % a year is predicted.

The approximation error characterises factor of determination R2 = 0,358. On the basis of what the conclusion is drawn, that the rectilinear trend describes diyonamiku innovative activity with insufficient level reprezentayotivnosti.

For more exact forecasting are considered square-law and eksponentsialnaja models.

The equation of a square-law trend looks as follows:

y =-0,031x2 + 0,721x + 6,092, (12)

Reliability of approximation is equal 0,637, that testifies about boyolee strong coincidence predicted and the fact sheet.

From the presented analysis it is possible to draw a conclusion, that most dostoyoverno developed dynamics of innovative activity describes kvadyoratichnoe the equation.

Thus, it is possible to calculate significance of an indicator of innovative activity in Russia till 2020 with use of two methods (tab. 14).

Table 1 4

prognoznye significances of innovative activity of the enterprises in the Russian Federation, %

Trend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Rectilinear trend 10,673 10,828 10,983 11,138 11,293
Square-law trend 9,026 8,6 8,112 7,562 6,95

Proceeding from the analysis of the equation of a square-law trend, by 2020 innovayotsionnaja activity of the enterprises will reach 6,95 %.

The linear equation of a trend containing a significant error apyoproksimatsii, allows to predict growth of innovative activity to 11,29 %.

The reasons of low innovative activity of the Russian enterprises are difficult and diverse, we will allocate most essential of them.

First, it is unmodern technological level proizvodstyova. Secondly, low rates of replacement of the out-of-date equipment, about what sviyodetelstvujut given tables 15.

Table 15

Factors of updating and leaving of a fixed capital in the Russian Federation

Indicator, % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Kobnovlenija 3,3 4,0 4,4 4,1 3,7 4,6 4,8 4,6
Kvybytija 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,7

Excess of factors of updating over factors vybyyotija testifies to the expanded reproduction. Significances koeffitsienyota leavings in 2015 are reduced in comparison by the previous periods that testifies to reduction of intensity of leaving become outdated oboyorudovanija.

Low level of updating of permanent assets (an order of 4 %) svideyotelstvuet about insufficiently active processes on overcoming tehnikoyotehnologicheskoj backwardness. Relationships of cause and effect can lead to a conclusion, that braking of processes of updating and replacement of a fixed capital negatively affects labour efficiency and, in the issue, leads to loss of competitive advantages in the world market.

Analysts assert, that throughout the last decades in foreign countries at the expense of high-efficiency technologies the annual
The rate of increase of production made 7-8 %. [XLI] Thus, become outdated engineering and the technologies prevailing at the industrial domestic enterprises, not only do not stimulate growth of production and intensity of work, but also brake innovative development

Along with low rates of updating of a fixed capital, the factor constraining innovative activity in regions, is low chisyolennost the staff taken by scientific researches and workings out. In drawing dynamics of number of the staff taken by scientific researches and workings out for 15 years (drawing 42) is represented.

Drawing 42 - Dynamics of number of the staff taken by scientific researches and workings out

For 15 years number of the staff taken by scientific researches and workings out, has decreased practically on 70 % (from 1061044 persons in 1995 to 737210 people in 2015).

In change of dynamics of this indicator also it is traced tsikyolichnost, caused by influence of a macroeconomic conjuncture.

The lowest rates of increase are observed in crisis for natsioyonalnoj economy years: 2008 - a minus of 4,97 %, 2013 - a minus of 3,57 %.

In postcrisis years, namely 2012 and 2015, rates of increase vyyoravnivalis, having made 2,31 % and 1,52 % accordingly.

So, number of the staff taken by scientific researches and razyorabotkami in 2015 began to increase in connection with number introduction natsioyonalnyh and regional programs and strategy of innovative development.

Not less important indicator of innovative activity - koeffitsiyoent izobretatelskoj activity - settles up as quantity of the submitted applications for a patent counting on 10 thousand people of the population (fig. 43). This koeffiyotsient on the average across Russia of dews, having made in 2015 3,47 %, that above analogichyonogo an indicator of 2005 and 2011 (2,34 % and 2,99 % accordingly).

Drawing 43 Structure and dynamics of factor izobretatelskoj aktivyonosti

It is necessary to establish that fact, that in national economy sloyozhilas a paradoxical situation when being the recognised leader in obyolasti generating of ideas, the country receives from it minimum materiyoalnuju benefit. Moreover, often pays more for acquired tehnoloyogii, than receives from realisation of own technologies.

This problem is extremely important and requires acceptance neotyolozhnyh measures on activization of processes of formation and use inyo
novatsionnogo potential as national economy as a whole, and otyodelnyh its regions.

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A source: ASTAPENKO ELENA OLEGOVNA. the ESTIMATION And DEVELOPMENT of INNOVATIVE POTENTIAL of REGION. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci. Kursk - 2018. 2018

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