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the Technique of a strategic choice (decision-making) within the limits of the strategic program of branch development

Absence of interrelation between theoretical and practical asyopektami strategic management - one of the important modern problems of the Russian Federation. It is possible to carry strategic targets to theoretical aspects programyomy and the indicators characterising efficiency strategic programyomy.

Concrete actions and the plan of their realisation concern practical aspects within the limits of the strategic program. Weak study of this problem leads to increase in off-schedule expenditures on public account and sniyozheniju to efficiency of realisation of the strategic program.

As it has been mentioned earlier, in the law on strategic planning of the Russian Federation necessity of attraction of various interested parties to working out of the state documents of strategic character is underlined. The result of this sharing should be expressed to the cores just in working out and a substantiation of actions for realisation within the limits of strategic programyomy. That is, to approve projects at the formation initial stage programyomy of actions it is offered from all parties interested in development GPK MZ [248].

Taking into consideration that fact, that branch strategic proyogramma is carried out at the expense of budgetary funds, indicators NPV, IRR, PP, etc. are not the basic criteria for project acceptance/deviation. However it is necessary to notice, that for the program of branch development, neobhoyodimo mainly to select the actions having a positive cash flow. It is possible to carry such actions to exceptions, as rekultivatsija, upon, not having a positive cash flow. Though, world practice also has examples economically effective reyokultivatsii, at the expense of subsequent use of these earths [378, 349].

Differently, at the initial stage of formation of the program meroyoprijaty, all actions should be considered, as potentially vozmozhyo
nye for realisation. In a consequence it is necessary to conduct elimination, including, with allowance for cost effectiveness indicators.

As a whole it is possible to tell, that foreign practice of a design estimation goes considerably ahead of the Russian. For example, it is traced, at attempt of an estimation of long-term social and economic effect from reayolizatsii the project [166] that has special significance for state strayotegicheskih programs. In this connection backlog, earlier us had been offered system of an indicator of efficiency of the strategic program (PESP).

According to information UNIDO [412], key result after project realisation it is necessary to consider availability stable and dlitelnoyogo social and economic effect. About its availability can svidetelstvoyovat the indicator of gain VDS offered earlier. Essential is at that, that the availability of similar stable effect can be observed only if projects and actions allow to generate conditions for organizayotsii independent microeconomic entities which do not require fiyonansovoj support from the state.

Proceeding from it, it is possible to define some key principles of a choice of actions and projects for realisation within the limits of branch strateyogicheskoj programs:

1. Actions and initiatives are necessary for accepting from all zainyoteresovannyh in development GPK MZ of the parties that will give the chance to evaluate osyonovnye directions of the program from the various parties.

2. Actions can duplicate one another, only in the event that they have preventive character.

3. Despite key significance stable poslerealizatsionnoyogo social and economic effect, the preference should be given to those actions which can supply a satisfactory finance result.

4. Taking into consideration absence "casual" PESP in predloyozhennoj to system, the program of actions should positively vozdejstvoyovat on significances of all indicators of the first and second levels.

In most cases the decision of optimising problems concerning programs of actions is executed with use mnogokriterialnoj the estimations which techniques of fulfilment are extremely diverse though have one purpose - formation of the optimum plan.

Separate aspects of the theory of optimisation are disputable and neodnoyoznachnym and in many respects depend on the subject and object of an estimation. Is not available obyoshchepriznannyh approaches to allocation of criteria of an optimality mnogofakyotornyh (including social and economic) systems, in particular, if isyopolzujutsja diverse indicators which cannot be compared in an initial kind. Because of it many researchers use expert judgements, that, first, strengthens uncertainty of total accounts. In - the second, essentially complicates estimation procedure in real conditions, from - for what, today, attraction of experts in many cases is executed only on a paper [214].

For levelling of this defect, of the offered approach to vyboyoru actions for the strategic program it is offered to refuse fulfilment of expert interrogations and to recognise that indicators within the limits of separate levels are considered as the equivalent. The comparison problem raznoyorodnyh indicators is offered to be decided with method use linejnoyogo scalings, or on the basis of an index method.

As a rule, at use of a method of linear scaling, significance of a studied indicator "are imposed" on a scale from 0 to 1 proyoportsionalno to real significance (the formula 6.12). In case the purpose javyoljaetsja actual value decrease the formula 6.12 will be transformed at 6.13.

Where X - an indicator actual value, Xi - positions actual znayochenija on a scale from 0 to 1, Xmin - a minimum actual value rassmatyorivaemoj samples, Xmax - the maximum actual value rassmatriyovaemoj samples.

Let's notice, that at application of formulas 6.12 and 6.13 it is the extremely probable poyojavlenie zero significances that does realisation of the further accounts trudnorealizuemym. Proceeding from it, in the offered approach will be ispolyozovatsja an index method.

At an index method, actual/base significance of an indicator priyonimaetsja equal to unit (for example, significance of an indicator in I I flow - a shchem/base year). In case the purpose is significance increase poyokazatelja the formula 6.14, if decrease - 6.15 is used.

Where Hfakt and Ht - actual and planned significance of an indicator.

At the heart of an offered technique of a choice of actions (drawing 6.6) lays qualitative study and the analysis of actions, and also them kolichestyovo. Thus there is no difference what of interested parties offers meyoroprijatie.

At the initial stage the base of all offered meroprijayoty and an estimation of influence of each of them on significances of all indicators of the first (∏rn) and the second levels (∏mn) is formed. After that account of indicators of a cost effectiveness of each action, and also total kapiyotalnye the expenses necessary for realisation of action (Zp) is carried out.

Drawing 6.6 - the Technique of a choice of actions for realisation within the limits of the strategic program

It is developed by the author.

Earlier it has been told, that it is necessary to give preference to the actions having satisfactory significances of indicators financial effektivyonosti. As these indicators it is offered to use NPV, PPи PI. Usually satisfactory it is considered the project, with significance NPV> 0, PI> 1, and DPP, should not exceed 7-10 years. On the other hand, DPP can koleyobatsja, depending on branch in which frameworks it is realised meroprijayotie.

At the initial stage there is no necessity of change of these usloyovy. Hence, as initial significances a, bи cнами were priyonjaty 0, 1, 10, accordingly. At the same time to notice, that in regions with intenyosivnym development where are realised competitive and vysokoeffekyotivnye projects, these significances should be revised in advantage uzhestoyochenija. That is, at the first iteration starting to realisation all meroyoprijatija, satisfying to condition PI> 1 both DPP 0.

After that the estimation total sotsialnoyoekonomicheskogo effect of the program of the actions which principles can be reduced to three key positions is executed:

1. Index significance of each indicator (the formula 6.14 and 6.15) vtoyorogo level (∏mn) should be above unit.

2. Index significance of each indicator (the formula 6.14 and 6.15) peryovogo level (∏rn) should be above unit.

3. Cumulative expenses for realisation of all program of actions should be below total gain VDS for all period of realisation of the program that will testify to availability stable poslerealiyozatsionnogo effect.

In a case when at least one of these of position is not executed, the generated program should be revised. For expansion peyorechnja considered actions it is offered to lower threshold znacheyonie indicators of a cost effectiveness of actions (a, b, c) - the block * (drawing 5.2). However decrease in indicators of a cost effectiveness
It is necessary to limit for elimination of inefficient projects. Sizes amin, bmin, cma χ are with that end in view entered.

As a rule, it is not recommended to lower significance aminи bminниже 0и 1 (NPVи PI).odnako strategic actions can differ povyshenyonoj a capital intensity, and, as consequence, higher term okupaemoyosti. That is, for decrease in a threshold of selection of actions it is offered uveliyochenie the maximum discounted payback time cmax, but no more than till 15 years, because of progressing growth of factor diskontirovayonija.

At impossibility of the further fall of significances of indicators a, b and c (a=aminи b=bminи c=cmax), and result of an estimation total socially - economic benefit negative, completion sushchestyovujushchih and working out of new actions is necessary.

When requests to cumulative social and economic effect of the program its base variant (f ι), where l-количество available base variants of the program of actions is executed, formed.

Important point is possibility of repeated formation of already generated program. Proceeding from it, in algorithm predusmotyoreny checks on repetitions after formation base and secondary variyoantov programs for the purpose of minimisation of total accounts.

After that it is offered to exclude the least effective action from the base program, proceeding from its effect on significances pokazateyolej 2го level (Min (∏m)). Further the repeated estimation sotsialnoyoekonomicheskogo effect of the program is conducted. If the new variant is udovleyotvoritelnym the secondary variant of the program vlk where to - koyolichestvo available secondary variants of the program of actions is formed, poyostroennyh from the base program l.

New secondary variants of the program are formed until, the total social and economic effect satisfies presented
To requests. If these requests are not executed, the estimation of quantity of the generated secondary and base variants of the program is executed.

At availability only one base variant of the program without vtorichyonyh (l=1и k

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A source: Peshkova Galina Jurevna. STRATEGIC PLANNING of DEVELOPMENT of the MINING COMPLEX of LOCAL SIGNIFICANCE. The DISSERTATION on competition of a scientific degree of the Doctor of Economics. Kursk - 2018. 2018

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