Empirical testing dinmicheskih consumption patterns
Transition to market economy, economic crises 1998 and 2008 were essentially reflected in economic behaviour Russian domohozjajstv, transformed traditional consumption patterns. In the report on developments of human potential in the Russian Federation 2011 it is noticed, that the lien of success of modernisation is the wide involvement of the population into processes of investment and crediting 427.
Dynamism of a modern life leads to active use as
savings, and a credit consumption pattern. It is possible to allocate the following indicators characterising model SÌÑ:
· Total amount of savings in economy and its dynamics
· Norm of personal savings to gross national product
· Average propensity to savings (APS)
· Structure of savings domohozjajstv
According to the Central bank, on the beginning of 2013 the volume of the money resources involved with banks in the form of deposits of physical persons, has increased to 14,5 trln. Rbl. In comparison with the similar period of 2012 also has grown on 40,4 % (tab. 5-6 see). For the first quarter of a current year the total volume of deposits of physical persons has made more than 16,3 bln. rub, that exceeds prognoznye incomes of the federal budget 14, 063 bln. rbl. on 2014 ãîä428. The norm of personal savings constantly increases in dynamics if in 2005 it made 7,1 % of gross national product in 2013 about 22,4 % of gross national product, on forecasts in.2014 year - 22,1 % of gross national product were lifted.
table 5-6
Volume of the contributions (deposits) of physical persons involved with the credit organisations (in million rub)
Indicators | 01.02.2007 | 01.02.2008 | 01.02.2009 | 01.02.2011 | 01.12.2012 | 01.02.2013 | 01.02.2014 |
Contributions, all | 3 930 282 | 5 224 542 | 6 217 667 | 8 719187 | 10 031 561 | 14 080 086 | 16 260 794 |
In roubles | 3 304 331 | 4 528 454 | 4 105 325 | 7 190 928 | 8 295 003 | 11 596 913 | 13 236 389 |
In currency | 625 950 | 696 088 | 2 112 341 | 1 528 259 | 1 736 558 | 2 483 173 | 3 024 405 |
the Note: It is made according to an official site of the Central Bank of Russia (on
to a condition on 01.02.14): www.cbr.ru
427 Report on development of human potential in the Russian Federation for 2011 / Under A.A.Auzana and S.N.Bobyleva's edition. - M: proon in the Russian Federation, 2011. - with. 55
428 Federal law ¹ 216-FZ from November, 28th, 2012 «About the federal budget for 2013 and for the planned period 2014 and 2015»
the Positive moment of stimulation of savings model became increase by the cover sum state under contributions to 700 thousand roubles that positive impact on economic behaviour of Russians has made. As a result after a wave of outflow of bank investments in October-November, 2008, stable growth of deposits in roubles has followed, which is caused by increase of deposit rates (above the rate of refunding of 8,25 %) and an active policy of banks concerning population savings. The absolute volume of deposit facilities has increased since 2003 in 32,5 times (fig.
5-6).
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
499 468 790 1047
3930
5225
16260
14723
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1êâ.
|
it is possible to explain Sharp growth of savings of the population following reasons: In - the first, since 2005 plastic cards as salary, in particular in budgetary sector, and social for service of grants, pensions and other allowances are actively introduced. The rest, not removed means for an abacus on such cards, it is possible to consider somewhat as savings or temporarily postponed consumer demand.
Secondly, essential increase of pension, in connection with valorizations of the pension rights in 2009-2010, also promoted a gain of savings especially in the Savings Bank where the share of investors of pensioners is traditionally high.
Thirdly, strengthening of uncertainty of prospects that leads to increase in savings on motive of precaution. Moreover pensions and other kinds of transfer deeds are the fixed incomes that subjects to their inflationary depreciation.
savings have the form intended not for current consumption, and for storage in such organised forms, as investments in business banks, investment funds and the companies, securities, instalments to pension funds and insurance policies. Such savings have a number of advantages in comparison with unorganized (untied) savings in cash roubles and currency. They expand a nalichno-monetary turn-over,
reusing in circulation involved money resources that creates preconditions for transition to more perfect forms of regulation of a money turnover.
However indicators of norm and structure of savings reflect the extremely inconsistent tendencies in savings process (tabl. 5-7). The average propensity to save extremely is not stable, fluctuations within 6 items in the course of the year, that is caused strong volatilnostju population incomes.
Table 5-7
Structure of savings of the population of the Russian Federation, from 2000-2012 (in %)
Indicators | 2000 | 2005 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
the Rate of savings, % to to the possessed income | 16 | 21 | 18 | 11 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 12,5 |
Savings of everything, in that number: | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Investments in banks and acquisition of securities | 27,6 | 29,9 | 42,3 | 0 | 43,1 | 56,9 | 47,8 | 50,6 |
Currency purchase | 50,4 | 57,6 | 33,3 | 96,3 | 57,9 | 26,3 | 37,8 | 34,8 |
Nalichno-monetary savings | 22,0 | 12,5 | 24,4 | 3,7 | 4,0 | 16,8 | 14,4 | 15,1 |
Is calculated on materials: the Social status and a standard of living of the population of Russia - M.Rosstat, 2012. - with. 82: Russia in figures, 2013. - With. 37.
the Structure of savings also has stochastic character, preferences of the population constantly vary, that amplifies uncertainty and constant change of economic conditions. According to sociological îïðîñîâ429 the most preferable form of storage of savings in the form of bank contributions - on the average 43 %. Lately enough high there is the share of the population preferring savings in the cash form, and this tendency amplifies during the postcrisis period in 2013 - 17 % of all savings. Hence, the trust of the population to a financial sector decreases. Unorganized character of savings does population means not accessible for
economy, brings to nothing investment possibilities, and is the destabilising factor.
the Analysis of results shows, that all savings are available for 41 % of the population of large and average cities, from them of 27 % postpone money resources off and on, 21 % - regularly direct a part of the received incomes on savings. In a regional cut the greatest share domohozjajstv, having accumulation is noted in Tyumen and Saratov
- about 26 % of inhabitants, the least share - in Perm and Orenburg - about 16 %. Evaluating
429 Regular interrogations of the population conduct the Center of strategic researches (Rosgostarh), the National agency of financial researches 9ÍÀÔÈ), the public opinion Fund (FOM) by request of Bank of Russia
a situation on the Russian areas, a maximum quantity, having is marked by savings in Yaroslavl-46 %, Moscow-44 %, the least share is observed in Orenburg-34 % and in Astrakhan - of 29 % íàñåëåíèÿ430.
Rice 5-7. Dynamics of structure of savings domohozjajstv, in %431
the Rating of the purposes of savings varies at transition from one profitable-property
groups in other. In the bottom group the priority is given to savings on motive of precaution, accumulation on an old age and on treatment. In the top group to the indicated purposes it is added priorities in formation of children and accumulation for the subsequent investment. Together with bond yield growth the share increases in the top property groups domohozjajstv, drawing on savings in the investment purposes: PIFS, memory insurance, the real estate, investments in own business, and also investment term, but no more increases than 5 years.
the Resulted average indexes characterise the general potential of savings of the population, but it is possible to judge their mobility only with allowance for differentiations of accumulation between separate groups domohozjajstv (tab. 5-8).
Availability of savings depending on a bond yield, In %
Table 5-8