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an estimation of regional efficiency of direct investments for problems of various degree of structurization

Efficiency is the basic characteristic of productivity of investments, a complex measure of the contribution of carried out investments into final public results. Measurement of regional efficiency should base on certain notions about structure and the mechanism of functioning of regional economy and economy of the Russian Federation.

In particular, we will consider the basic preconditions of such mechanism:

1. Region - the noncommercial structure, which activity is directed on satisfaction of requirements of the population which are beyond market relations and noncontrollable market.

2. A priority of public interests, in their binding to separate parts of national territory, and in particular, consideration of social, ecological, economic aspects

Region abilities to live, with a priority of social and ecological factors.

3. Availability of essential quantity of outer effects and the public goods, abilities to live of region resulting realisation which are difficult for considering in money terms.

4. It is system-konglameratnyj character of regional structures.

5. System regulation of territorial development - orientirovannost on system transformation of regional structures: aspiration to structural equation, creation of missing links, overcomings destruktivnosti separate elements, stimulation intra-and inter-regional communications of territory.

6. Region, as the element of a state system which is subject to laws and administrative effects from the state and external market effects.

7. The spatial structure of region consists of following basic parts:

■ the basic skeleton consisting of cities of various size;

■ objects of an infrastructure;

■ the factors of production non-uniformly distributed on territory of region.

8. The basic indicator of successful activity of region in sotsialnoyoekologicheskoj to sphere is positive dynamics of quality performances of a life of the population. Main conditions of reproduction of economic potential of territory are efficiency

Activity and positive dynamics of indicators of a standard of living of the population.

9. The region economy represents meaningly operated system which should function and develop according to following organic laws and the positions as a whole characterised vzaimonerazrushchajushchim by reproduction of economic, resource, social and ecological potentials of territory:

■ a social orientation;

■ an ecological orientation;

■ market laws and postulates - the law of cost, a supply and demand on various types of the markets, etc.;

■ public and a private property on tools and production assets.

10. The region economy represents the difficult multilevel complex which separate elements are connected by the branched out system horizontal and vertical ties, and own interests are internally inherent in each element and its components.

11. Availability neopredelennostej and risks, multi-variant approach of succession of events at economic activities realisation.

12. A basic principle of mutual relations in the Russian Federation and construction of intereconomic relations between various subjects of the market is sposobstvie to creation of a mode of a free competitiveness and democratic centralism.

13. It is possible to present functioning of economy of region as realisation of a complex of economic actions.

At their planning and designing it is necessary to consider results (expenses) of all kinds, both quantitatively, and it is qualitative, and and

Those and others can be expressed as in cost, and the natural form.

14. The major elements of functioning of an economic mechanism at region level are:

■ the system of provision of economic incentives focusing participants of process of investment, in a direction of increase in final public results at regional level;

■ on-line formed and obligatory for performance by all participants of economic activities in territory of region standards and specifications in various areas of ability to live, parametres of system of provision of economic incentives;

■ market relations and the property rights between various subjects of regional economy.

15. At realisation of accounts of regional efficiency it is necessary to use indicators most full reflecting public expenses and results at regional level.

Because the system of principles of an estimation of efficiency IP existing at present bases on axioms of rational economic behaviour and, basically, is directed on the account of economic consequences of realisation of investments, and for region are not less important both social and ecological consequences of investment it is represented reasonable to add existing system of principles some essential elements reflecting achievement of a reasonable balance of forces between economic efficiency and social justice. In particular, it is offered to consider following principles in addition:

1) the degree Account strukturizovannosti - as a base element of an estimation of efficiency of direct investments, on which basis

Methods of vector or scalar optimisation are applied to estimation realisation.

2) mnogokriterialnosti - availability of set frequently vzaimnoprotivorechivyh the purposes and requirements, and, as consequence, complexity of their display in the unique (scalar) indicator.

3) Vzaimonerazrushajushchego interactions - definition of reasonable balance between economic and socially-ecological lines of business.

4) Vosproizvodstvennogo the approach - results of realisation of considered actions should be sufficient for rational reproduction of used investment resources, both industrial, and non-productive.

5) Equation - realisation of investments should be directed on removal of a various sort of disproportions of regional development and have vzaimonerazrushajushchy character.

6) the Economic approach - the estimation of regional efficiency of direct investments is conducted proceeding from the region purposes, and evaluated from the point of view of all population of region, that is proceeding from the contribution of considered investments to final public results at region level.

7) the Special-purpose character of accounts - it is necessary to consider a specific goal of realisation of accounts of efficiency and to check the received results on degree of satisfaction of an ultimate goal.

8) Stability - realisation of investments makes essential impact on all parties of ability to live of region in the long-term period and should have essentially positive stable character at stable vzaimonerazrushajushchem development. The principles set forth above are one of the cores

Preconditions for the further clarification of methods of calculation and system

Indicators for an estimation of regional efficiency of direct investments. In particular, according to a principle mnogokriterialnoe ™ it is necessary to consider, at least 2 components - economic and social, and it is even better - 3, in addition to first two, also spatial aspect though, frequently, it finds display in first two elements. For adequate display of these changes clarification of methods of calculation of regional efficiency of direct investments offered on the present moment, in particular, on the basis of methods of vector optimisation is required.

As a whole, for an estimation of regional efficiency of direct investments it is possible to allocate following essential features:

1) Realization of investments makes essential impact on economic, social and ecological spheres of ability to live of region, both in industrial, and in non-productive spheres. Thus occurrence of following situations is possible:

1.1) it is possible to express all essential consequences in quantitative scales, that is the problem is well strukturizovannoj;

1.2) it is possible to express a part of consequences in quantitative scales, and it is possible to express a part only in qualitative scales, that is the problem is poorly strukturizovannoj.

2) As a whole indicators for ORERI should consider a number of aspects, in particular:

■ dynamics of processes and influence of the factor of time;

■ completely to reflect all interesting consequences of realisation of investments on considered spheres of ability to live of region;

■ to have system properties, for formation of the integrated criterion considering consequences of realisation of investments.

3) For an estimation of regional efficiency it is offered to use 2 kinds of indicators: effect indicators in the economic sphere, reflecting consequences of realisation of the project in economic sphere and indicators of potential of the region, reflecting consequences of realisation of the project in social and ecological spheres of ability to live of region and, not found reflexions in economic indicators aspects. Thus depending on a kind of measurement and degree of structurization of a problem (possibility of submission of the information in the form of quantitative or qualitative variables, possibility of reflexion of interrelation between parametres, possibilities of a choice of the best variant) can arise following situations:

3.1. For well strukturizovannyh problems it is possible to express all essential consequences of realisation of the project in money terms. For ORERI the system of indicators from [62] is applied, basic of which indicator CHDD expressed in the economic prices is.

3.2. For poorly strukturizovannyh problems it is possible to express a part of essential consequences in money terms, and a part - in quantitative. Economic benefit, is considered within the limits of industrial and non-productive sphere and presented by system of indicators from [62], basic of which the indicator commercial CHDD, disregarding social and ecological consequences, for an effect estimation in industrial sphere is, and to the account of social and ecological consequences is applied indicators of potential of region.

3.3. For nestrukturizovannyh problems the part of consequences of realisation of the project is presented in quantity indicators, and a part - in

The qualitative.

3.3.1. Economic benefit, is considered within the limits of industrial and non-productive sphere and presented by system of indicators from [62], basic of which the indicator commercial CHDD, disregarding social and ecological consequences is, and to the account of social and ecological consequences is applied indicators of potential of region. For indicators of potential of region the uniform serial scale (EPSH) criteria is under construction.

3.3.2, Consequences of realisation of the project cannot be presented in

Quantitative expression, but it is possible to express in the qualitative. For ORERI in that case it is offered to use algorithm of system INQUIRY.

The situation set forth above is displayed in the Appendix 2.1.

Having considered the basic real possible situations arising

At an estimation of regional efficiency of direct investments, concerning possibility of display of results and expenses in quantitative or quality indicators, we will pass directly to consideration ORERI for problems of various degree of structurization.

To estimation of regional efficiency of direct investments for good strukturizovannyh problems following features are characteristic:

■ Possibility of reception of a trustworthy information in quantitative, namely, in money terms about expenses and results of realisation of investments.

■ Possibility and availability of a standard technique and receptions for account of the economic prices which reflect value of considered objects from the point of view of company in the given territory.

For good strukturizovannyh problems it is represented reasonable to use algorithm of account and system of indicators from [19; 62], and only short algorithm of account here is resulted:

■ definition of the purpose of investment and its check on an admissibility;

■ formation of scenarios of actions (possible variants of actions);

■ definition of essential elements of results and expenses on investment, operational and financing activities (according to [19; 62]) within the limits of the allocated scenarios;

■ definition of the economic prices;

■ account of cash flows in the economic prices on activity kinds;

■ a cash flow forecast in the economic prices under considered scenarios;

■ definition of characteristics of inflation under scenarios and deflirovanie cash flows;

■ definition of factor of reduction;

■ account of expected economic benefit.

Thus it is necessary to take into consideration following basic characteristics of the Russian economy and the offered algorithm of account:

■ nestatsionarnost;

■ absence of exact methodology of account of the economic prices;

■ impossibility of the account of all social and economic consequences of realisation of investments.

Thus, it is obvious, that at present application of the offered methodology can conduct to discrepancies and errors at an estimation of regional efficiency of direct investments, in connection with the facts set forth above. One more unsolved problem as it has been indicated in Chapter 1 is the account of joint interaction of the law of falling of value of money in time and dynamics of inflation.

Here following basic variants of such account are possible:

1. A straight line:

1.1. Splitting of a step of a settlement period into rather smaller stages in which frameworks influence of distribution of cash flows and inflation is rather insignificant.

1.2. Within the limits of a considered step - allocation of that number of the moments of time in which there is a real change of cash flows and inflation, and then use of methods of vector optimisation for the account of non-uniformity of distribution DP and inflations.

2. Indirect:

2.1. Allocation of separate factors of distribution for DP and inflations in a settlement period step.

2.2. Allocation of the generalised factor of the distribution simultaneously considering the law of falling of value of money in time and dynamics of inflation.

Considering the above-stated, the following algorithm of the joint account of laws of falling of value of money in time and dynamics of inflation is offered:

1. We will consider m-й a step of the project time duration D „.

2. On this step are considered known (predicted) for the considered participant (or the project as a whole) distribution of a financial stream on a step. Thus there can be cost loadings concentrated - financial streams F't (possessed on time distance 4 from the step beginning, i.e. Od ^ + f

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A source: Samoshkov Artem Konstantinovich. Estimation of regional efficiency kapitaloobrazujushchih investments. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci. Dubna -. 2007

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