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the Substantiation of account of a cash flow at an estimation of client base within the limits of MEEM


Cash flow account, genelduemogo exclusively client bloj, javljaetst netiiunoj a problem potolku as such cash flow iznachuno is unknown. Its construction begins with forecasting of the general gain and costs in which creation participates otsendaemyj NMA, and it is a gain and costs of all business more often.
Daee from streams dja all business it is necessary пeлeЛти to streams, generduemym only dadym NMA. It is carried out putm that account, katuju the share in obshchi streams is taken by other assets, for example zdand, cars, the equipment (permanent assets), trademarks, licences, patents (prchie NMA), turnaround aktdy, etc. In more details dadyj will be got poisoned by fumes account rassmoten dzhe.
Step 1 - Construction of the forecast of the general cash flow of all business
Vnachae it is necessary to stand the forecast of a gain and costs of all business during OSPI client base. The purpose of such forecast is will introduce poklatelja EBITDA dja all business which in yes the house a case and will be the general cash flow.
It is necessary to crush, that obshchi a cash flow it is necessary to cost, starting with tipinyh ozhidadj ratsionanogo ivestora. In this case uchdyvajutsja only those potokja, which each ratsionunyj ivestor ozhidu on the average from aduoginoj kompadi.
Table 10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Vyruuka 200 204 208 212 216 221 225
(*)
The cost price
-70 -71 -71 -72 -73 -74 -74

Vjaooa profit 130 133 137 140 144 147 151
Miscellaneous costs -20 -20 -20 -21 -21 -21 -21
EBITDA 110 113 116 120 123 126 130
The note: (*) - not вияoчт aмoртязтuю
Step 2 - Allocation
In the general cash flow of a share,

Generated with

Sharing of existing client base

Vtolym step it is necessary

To correct

General cash flow,
рассчитанній In a step 1, with
The account of factors existing

Clients,

Or existing client bay (see
P. 84)

The purpose such rasleta

Is postroenja

The forecast

EBITDA

Exclusively dja existing clients.
An example

Constructions pognoza
pivvdl in the table more low.

Table 11

Forecast EBITDA for existing clients
Vyruuka 2007
200
2008
204
2009
208
2010
212
2011
216
2012
221
2013
225
Сeбхтoдмoжт (*) -70 -71 -71 -72 -73 -74 -74
Valova profit 130 133 137 140 144 147 151
Miscellaneous costs -20 -20 -20 -21 -21 -21 -21
EBITDA 110 113 116 120 123 126 130
Existing идeдты 63 % 42 % 27 % 15 % 7 % 3 % 1 %
Vyruuka - sushch. tlieny 126 85 57 32 16 7 2
СeбхтOДMOЖT () - ushch. Kilts -44 -30 -19 -11 -5 -2 -1
Valova profit - sushch. идeдты 82 56 37 21 11 5 1
Miscellaneous costs - sushch. ideny -13 -8 -6 -3 -2 -1 0
EBITDA - ushch. kldeny 69 47 32 18 9 4 1

The note: (*) - not вияoчт aмoртязтuю
Updating of the general indicators is carried out by multiplication of each of such indicators to the corresponding factor sushchestvujushchi clients:
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For example, the gain in 2007, is generated including existing clients (126) rasschiyvaetsja ptem umnozhenja the general gain (200) on potseu clients, with kotolymi kompanja sohranla business contact on the end of 2007 (63 %) (200х63 % = 126).
At дoгнoзнoвaнн it is necessary to stay at level EBITDA, i.e. on doamortizatsionnom level as rassmotrenna more low the formula of account of a share of sharing of other assets will already include as return нвecтщн (return of investment), and the income on нвecтицн (return on investment). Hence, account amoltizatsii (return нвecтицн) on aktiam kompani (to permanent assets, NMA) in the table above is not necessary. Napotiv, it will arrive to double uchetr amortisation and will deform results of an estimation.
Step 3 - Subtraction from a cash flow generated including existing client базы1, shares of sharing of other assets
The third step it is necessary to deduct from EBITDA, generated existing clients, a share to sharing drugi assets. This share pedstavljaet itself gipotetieskre patezhr sobstveniku data aktiov. For comprehension of it it is necessary to present, that the company takes all zadejstvovanye it assets, except otsenvaemoj client base, in leasing ii in arend. Accordingly, the company should pay certain rent payments on these assets. These patezhi also should vychiatsja from
EBITDA. These conditional costs these should include both return ivestshchi (amortisation), and incomes sobstvedia aktdov.
However before starting to raschett shares drugi aktdov, nuzhdo opredeld which aktdy, besides evaluated client bay, participate in sozdadi the general cash flow. For this purpose we will take advantage of the scheme, prdedennoj in ggave 1 (item 50 see), and dopoldm its new dadymi.
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Drawing 16. Opuedeledde other assets participating in generating of the general cash flow
Material assets are considered in structure drugi assets completely. Them identifikatsgja usually does not cause tudn°stej as in the majority a case all such assets are considered on baanse kompani. Materianye aktdy at account of their share in the general monetary tray should be considered on a market value.
The human capital is considered as a part of other assets within the limits of account of cost of the worker siy (workforce), including zataty on employment and training sotudniov, and also aternatdnye zataty, ponesedye the companies during the period "vlivadja" new sotudniov in a working rhythm. Iskljuchielnye taanty sotudniov the company-object are not considered as a part of others aktdov, but budt are indirectly considered in cost business
leptnii. This results from the fact that, otseniva rynochnju cost ииeнтcкoй bay, денежній the stream is predicted from an item of the rational investor with typical for the market ozhidanjami in otnosheni any similar (instead of danoj concrete) the company-object. Исключительнія talents and private skills of employees are on advantage cпeцифичecими dja konretnoj the companies, therefore cost of such skills can be considered only pi account инвестиіціоной, instead of a market value. Imeno therefore it is considered as a part of business reputation, but aik not in a dale of other assets.
Адяoгичнo, as a part of the structural capital dja account of a share of other assets otsene podezhat only those komponeny which are typical on the average for any kompani danoj ottasli. To such komponenam usually carrying patents and licences. All pochie components cтyyУтУРн°г ° kapila budt indirectly учтені in cost business reptatsii, except, certainly, that part, kotora is a part of the most client bay.
From structure of the client capital it is necessary to include brands in other assets, товарніе signs, etc. Such assets as благоприятніе relations with the Government, exit possibility on are certain rynk sales, atypical for the companies of similar branch, should be indirectly considered as a part of business reputation.
The key moment in definition of structure of other assets participating, along with evaluated client baoj, in generirovani the general cash flows, is the conformity principle. It is necessary maksimjano uniformly pododit to пocтyoeнрю cash flows and to definition of the assets participating in their creation. So, if the cash flows presented in the business plan kompani-obelga, consider in themselves that fact, that in the company three work most генияьніх in the world of the engineer it is necessary or to correct these streams aside snizhenja, predicting, ratsionjanyj the investor from shednej kompani in branch (instead of from given concrete), or uchiyvat how many can receive a market value these izhenerov not posto as labour, and as most tsenogo aktia. In mnogi a case podod, osnovanyj on postroeni "spravedivogo" a cash flow (without a fate atypical dja kompanj the given branch aktovov) jaljaetsja practically more realised.
After opedeleni structure of other assets of autol sliaet necessary pistupt to opredelenju their shares in obshchi cash flows.
Important koneptsiej at account of a share of sharing drugi assets jaljaetsja gipotetocheskoe separate possession aktovami kompani [87, p. 6]. For example, permanent assets can possess Kompani And, the licence on poizvodstva - Kompani, turnaround kaptalom - kompani In, and to use these assets and proizvodi prodktsrju - Kompani d, Kompani M should deduct from the EBITDA opredelenye patezhi kompanjam And (rent patezhi), (payments rojati) and In (payments for use of circulating assets).
For opedeleni patezhej on other assets (i.e. to assets, whether except otseniaemoj ¾n skoj) it is necessary to know bases and a market value and OSPI. It is necessary because sobstvenni asset (it is admissible, the company) is intended as to reimburse enclosed by it kapil (on permanent asset acquisition), and poluchi opredelenyj the income on enclosed ivestii. And vozvuat iuestitsy, and the income on the investment depending on a project cost and from that period during which it is necessary to reimburse these ivestatsi.
Account of market costs of others algiov, participating in sozdani a company cash flow, is beyond a writing of the given dissertation. In this connection for accounts it is supposed, that market costs of all taki assets are already known.
It is received, that patezhi on other assets, ii fate shares drugi aktovov in the general cash flow, settle up as a stream of money resources which, being discounted under the yield rate on ivestshchi, will be equal to an asset market value.
Let's admit, rynochnu core cost suedstva (zdadja) 12 grandfather makes on datt estimations. A unit, OSPI zdand 7 years and sobstvendk tebuet the income on инвecтщи, equal 5 %. Account gipotetieskjah rent payments on other assets is presented more low in the formula developed by the author dissertatsi:
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Tax - the rate naoga on profit (in dadom an example it is equal 24 %).
Substituting znachend in the formula above, we receive in rezzltate 2,19 grandfather. The unit Is that cash flow, kotooyj it is necessary generdovat kompani M that, after the account naogovogo advantages and payments naoga on has arrived, completely "rasschitatst" with gioteticheskim the proprietor of a building.
For the reason that OSPI each of dtsugih algdov can not coincide with otsendaemym NMA and not to complicate accounts excessive delatsijami, tselesoobulnee all to find a share of rent payments in general poklatele kompadi, for example in a gain. Result vychisleni will be oшeДeлeдый percentage pokaatel, at umnozhedi which on a gain (or other pokaatel kompadi) will be received greatness arednyh payments to a deduction. Advantage such percentage poklatelja also that he allows to compare and compare razinye rates on rent payments on the different companies and with sredneotraslevymi idiatorami. Dadoe the circumstance helps otsenshchiu to understand, how much authentic oklalis received by it рeзультaты.
In a considered conditional example the average gain for analiziuemyj has made the period 219 den. The unit, hence, doll arennyh patezhej on a building is equaled 1 % (2,19/219=1 %). Similarly
Shares of sharing of other assets participating in creation of the general cash flow settle up. We will admit, in considered conditional pimere otsenshchiom it has been revealed only others two aktia: a building and the licence.
The account of a share of sharing of other assets
Result of the third step of accounts jaljaetsja vychianie from indicator EBITDA sushchestvujushchi clients of a share of sharing ddugih assets, as shown in the table nzhe.
Table 12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gain - sushch. Clients 126 85 57 32 16 7 2
Sebestoimost () - sushch. klreuy -44 -30 -19 -11 -5 -2 -1
Gross profit - sushch. Clients 130 133 137 140 144 147 151
Miscellaneous costs - sushch. The client -13 -8 -6 -3 -2 -1 0
EBITDA - sushch. Clients 69 47 32 18 9 4 1
Здание1 \' * ’ 1 \' \' 1 1,0 % -1,3 -0,9 -0,6 -0,3 -0,2 -0,1 0,0
(**)
Ллщyзлх 2,0 %
-2,5 -1,7 -1,1 -0,6 -0,3 -0,1 0,0
Total a share of others altiov -3,8 -2,6 -1,7 -1,0 -0,5 -0,2 -0,1
Slorrekt. ping 65 45 30 17 9 4 1

Primechatja: (*) - not including amortisation
(**) - l protsetah from v/uchsh, prshodjagshchihs/on cящecтвяюtцих clients
Step 4 - the Account of tax advantage evaluated client базы1
As at an estimation of market value NMA it is necessary uchiyvat all cash flows, generated for data assembly, to account pinmajutst not only neposuedstvenye monetary pitoki, but also economy of monetary outflows.
Klientska baa, depending on nlogovogo legislations of each concrete country, can be considered or as samostootelnyj amortiziujushchisja asset with ogranchennym OSPI, or as a part of business reptatsii the companies, or in general nikl not to be considered. In the tax legislation of some countries amortisation business reptatsii is provided. Accordingly, irrespective of, whether admits klientskja baa dja the purposes nlotovogo legislations as separate NMA or as a part of business reputation, its cost will be gradually written off ptem amortisation. And poskolk amortisation dja the purposes nlogooulozhenija is kicked as costs, pinimaemyh to a deduction at account njaoga on pibi it will reduce the sum njaoga on pibsh, upachivaemogo in the budget. Taka the economy, budchi diskonirovanoj under the rate of discounting for evaluated asset, also will make current cost total phmushchestva.
Problem place in account total peimushchestva javljaetst that circumstance, that for its account, and in particular, amortisation otchislenj, it is necessary to know cost klienskoj bases [37, c. 25]. On the other hand, cost of client base includes cost njaogovyh phmushchestv. In danom a case arises koltseva ssylk.
The author considers possible to decide a problem of the ring reference several ptjami:
Trial and error method (trial and error method);
Search method reshenja in the environment of tabular redaktola Excel families Office kompani Microsoft;
Method of creation of the deliberate cyclic reference in a trace of tabular editor Excel of family Office of company Microsoft.
The first method the longest and неудобній, as trbuet search possible varianov manually. Such method furthermore does not allow to achieve high accuracy of accounts.
Vtoloj a method more практичній and exact, rather than the first, however he demands povede nja not one, and bore kolkih iterations. So, snachjaa amortisation settles up, proceeding from certain distracted sizes і, and in the end is calculated rynochnu cost of client base. Then, step by step, cost on which basis rassldyvaetsja amortizatsd, and rynochnu cost postepedo approach putm search reshedj. The given method, as well as the first, can potebovat znachdelnogo koliestva time dja nahozhdedja final resheni and furthermore it not so flexible since each time of new search of decisions at change initial paramet°v demands an estimation.
The third method is most easily reaizuemym, convenient and flexible means rlreshenija tsilicheskoj references. In this case the tabular editor iteratsionno itself executes necessary accounts. An important point here is tehdcheskaja adjustment of the tabular processor, namely that it has been included optsd works with tsilicheskimi references.
After account of depreciation charges evaluated NMA it is necessary umnozhd them on the rate the profit tax. poluchedoe product d will make nediskontdovannoe naogovoe advantage. Its discounting is carried out together with the general cash flow generated iskljuch is efficient evaluated NMA [38, with. 67].
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Described in tetem the step has deducted stages ¾ni are presented to mastiffs oh to the table on item 100.
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A source: Aksenov Andrey Igorevich. the ESTIMATION of CLIENT BASE AT ASSOCIATION of the COMPANIES. The DISSERTATION on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci. Moscow -. 2007

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