<<
>>

§ 3.8.2. Modelling of modern climatic conditions.

By means of the special multiwindow module (fig. 93) were

Calculations of values of each of seven listed above variables in those cells of a card of the Kislovodsk hollow in which there were 493 objects used in work are made.

The generalised statistical characteristics of features of a modern climate on groups of objects are resulted in Table 5. Here we see, that on the average for places where are found out alanskie settlements, the annual sums of daily average temperatures now are characteristic from

1156,8 to 2532,1°С (a median 2013,4°С), the annual sum of radiating balance

2 2

Has values of 1,68-2,84 gdzh/m (a median of 2,01 gdzh/m), the annual sum of deposits - from 127 to 667 mm (a median of 273 mm). For a year is available from 152 till 184 days with deposits (a median 176) and from 209 till 259 days with daily average temperature above 10°С (a median 249). The parity of deposits and the temperature, expressed in hydrothermal factor, matters from 0,3 to 1,0 mm / ° With, and

For settlements kobanskoj cultures are characteristic the similar

Climatic characteristics (Table 5). A little big the minimum of the sum of daily average temperatures (1226,3°С), smaller - a maximum of the annual sum of deposits (544 mm is represented; a median of 237 mm). Other climatic variables are very close the aforesaid. Data about a modern climate in a zone terrasnogo agriculture have close characteristics. There are some differences in the annual sums of daily average temperatures,

Radiating balance and deposits for terraces of the first type. For their zone

Distributions are characteristic a little smaller temperature (a median

2

1921,7°С) and big radiating (a median of 2,10 gdzh/m) and vlazhnostnye (a median of 306 mm) characteristics. The locations of terraces of the second type have close indicators of a climate to places of placing of settlements kobanskoj and alanskoj cultures (Table 5).

As it has been shown in the works quoted above, considered variables considerably depend on a high-rise arrangement of measured cells in which there are archaeological monuments (Afanasev, etc., 2004. With. 83-84; Afanasev, Boxes, 2007; 2008. With. 223; Boxes, 2007). It is shown visually by factors plural the correlations (Table 6) calculated for used climatic variables in a combination to height of an arrangement of a monument. From the table there is obvious a strong dependence practically all climatic testimonials from of height of an arrangement of a monument, except for an indicator of annual quantity of days with deposits. Very high factors of correlation at the annual sums of daily average temperatures above 10°С (-0,92), radiating balance and deposits (0,89 and 0,86 accordingly), and also quantities of days with daily average temperature above 10°С (-0,90). Thus, negative dependence of temperature testimonials from of altitude of an arrangement of object of research and positive - from quantity of solar radiation and deposits is established.

Smaller on the force, but nevertheless significant communications are marked for interdependence of height of an arrangement of monuments and hydrothermal factor (the factor of correlation 0,74), and also a radiating index of dryness (-0,73), that is in higher sites of a hollow is observed higher humidity and smaller dryness, that already it was marked above according to other used indicators.

There are dependences of climatic characteristics among themselves, at times rather strong. These communications show obvious features of modern climatic conditions when warmer sites of a hollow are characterised by smaller humidity, but thus receive smaller quantity of solar radiation. It is remarkable, that the indicator of number of days with deposits for a year is not connected with one of used in the analysis.

If to calculate correlation factors separately for each group of analyzed objects, are visually shown noted above

Laws. As for poselencheskih monuments kobanskoj and alanskoj cultures, and for sites terrasnogo agriculture of both types interdependence temperaturno-vlazhnostnyh testimonials from of altitude of an arrangement of a monument (factors of correlation 0,74-0,93 for alanskih and 0,80-0,94 - for kobanskih settlements, 0,78-0,87 for terraces of the first and 0,70-0,85 for terraces of the second type) comes to light. We will try to analyse these characteristics in more details.

To grouping of settlements with similar climatic features in modern conditions it was applied klasternyj the analysis. Similar work was already carried out by G.E.Afanasevym for several strengthenings of valley Alikonovki and Eshkakona, chosen as reference (Afanasev, etc., 2004. With. 81-84; Afanasev, Boxes, 2007; 2008. With. 223). The similar method has allowed me to compare also among themselves climatic parametres of different sites of a hollow, characteristic for the present and for modelled conditions of an epoch of the early

For more detailed analysis of settlements used in given work and sites terrasirovanija klasterizatsii 493 objects described to seven used signs (the annual sums of daily average temperatures above 10°С, the annual sum of radiating balance, the annual sum of deposits, number of days with deposits for a year, number of days with daily average temperature above 10°С, hydrothermal factor and a radiating index of dryness) have undergone. The method of reduced vicinities by calculation Evklidova of distance (the minimum increment of the second moment of splitting) was used, computer program DATASCOPE was applied to the analysis. As a result on distance between objects approximately in 267,96 units the hierarchical tree has been divided into three klastera (fig. 118). Data about statistical characteristics of each of them are shown in Table 7.

So, for the monuments carried to first klasteru (Table 7; 99 objects), are characteristic high values of the annual sum daily average

Temperatures above 10°С (from 2299,4 to 2532,1°С, a median 2362,6°С) and annual

2 2

The sums of radiating balance (from 1,68 to 1,84 gdzh/m, a median of 1,79 gdzh/m), the low annual sum of deposits (from 127 to 223 mm, a median of 199 mm). For klastera the big number of days in a year with daily average temperature above 10°С (256 days), rather a considerable quantity of days with deposits for a year (152184 days, a median of 178 days), low hydrothermal factor (0,3-0,4 mm / °) and a high radiating index of dryness (3,2-5,3, a median 3,6) is characteristic. The monuments united in these klaster, are basically in the bottom part of a hollow at heights from 700 to 1140 m, in the majority in the range from 700 to 1000 m; all of them are characterised by warm enough and rather damp climatic conditions. Only seven objects settled down at height from 1000 to 1140 m; it is remarkable, that five of them concerns sites terrasirovanija the first type. Among the objects which have got in given klaster, 47 settlements alanskoj and 36 settlements kobanskoj cultures, 12 sites of terraces the first and 4 sites of the second type.

Considerably the settlements which have united in second klaster (Table 7 differ from previous aside colder and damp climate; 229 monuments). For them values of the annual sum of daily average temperatures above 10°С from 1918,3 to 2239,3°С (a median 2036,9°С), and the annual sum of deposits - from 180 to 330 mm (a median of 258 mm) are characteristic. Thus the quantity of solar radiation in these places is more in comparison with the previous: value of the annual sum of radiating balance in the locations of objects of data klastera makes from 1,76 to 2,21 гДж/м2 (a median 2,01 гДж/м2). In more cool climate specifies also smaller number of warm days in a year - on the average their quantity equally 250. Number of days with deposits to adequately similar indicator at settlements of others klasterov (from 155 till 184 days, a median - 176 days). Objects of data klastera are characterised by the big hydrothermal factor (0,4-0,7) and a smaller radiating index of dryness (2,6-4,5 mm / °). Monuments of it klastera are found out at absolute heights from 730 to 1360 m, but the majority of them (193 from 229) lay above 1000 m above sea level. Among got in given klaster objects of 32 settlements kobanskoj cultures, 69 settlements of an epoch of the early Middle Ages, 57 sites terrasirovanija the first and 71 site - the second type. Interesting prevalence of the last among objects of the given class is represented - the majority of terraces of the second type gets to the second klaster under modern climatic characteristics.

Indicators of a modern climate, characteristic for settlements of the third klastera (Table 7; 165 objects), still in bolshej degrees differ aside colder and damp climate in comparison with above described. Annual

The sum of daily average temperatures above 10°С fluctuates from 1156,8 to 1875,2°С

2

(A median 1755,2 °), the annual sum of radiating balance - from 1,87 to 2,84 gdzh/m (a median 2,23 гДж/м2). The annual sum of deposits makes 270-667 mm (a median of 347 mm), and number of days with deposits for a year - 155-183 days (173 days - value of a median). To approximately adequately monuments united in first klaster,

Number of warm days in a year - them in the third klastere on the average 242. For the given objects great values of hydrothermal factor (0,5-0,9) and smaller - a radiating index of dryness (1,7-3,6 mm / °) are characteristic still. It is obvious, that the objects which have united in third klaster, are located at the maximum absolute heights from 910 to 1820 m, i.e. in the uppermost part of the Kislovodsk hollow. The majority of them (112 of 165) lays at height above 1200 m. Among objects given klastera 32 settlements kobanskoj cultures, 57 monuments alanskoj epoch, 61 site terrasirovanija the first type and 15 sites of the second type.

The received division of climatic characteristics of studied settlements and sites terrasirovanija on klastery perfectly proves to be true a method of the discriminant analysis at use mentioned above seven climatic characteristics and height of an arrangement of objects (fig. 119). The table of erroneous classification of objects visually shows validity of allocation of all of three klasterov monuments (Table 8). All objects of the first and the third klasterov are carried by the discriminant analysis to the groups, only two objects of the second klastera correspond under the characteristics with objects of the first klastera and one - with objects of the third. It is obvious, that we have the right to allocate three climatic zones in the conditions of a modern climate in which settle down the found out settlements of different epoch and sites of agriculture accompanying them (fig. 120). For the bottom high-rise zone the maximum indicators of the annual sum of daily average temperatures above 10°С and the minimum values of the annual sum of deposits and radiating balance are characteristic. The opposite picture is observed in the top high-rise zone of an arrangement of archaeological objects. Between these extreme zones there is an intermediate zone both on height, and under climatic characteristics.

Plants that has been shown in G.T.Seljaninova's works in 1930th years (Mishchenko, 2009. With. 86). It is known, that each of cultures has the specific requirements for heat, expressed in the biological sums of temperatures of air. In the given work we accept an indicator of the annual sums of daily average temperatures used by us above 10°С for the basic whereas in modern agroklimatologii indicators of the sums of day and night positive temperatures are not less important, and also estimations of conditions of frost resistance of plants and other climatic factors influencing productivity (Mishchenko, 2009. With. 122-129, 175-203). In the quoted work which is the first textbook on agroklimatologii, published in Russian, are resulted in a tabular kind of requirement of the cores

Agricultural crops in heat, expressed in the biological sums of temperatures of air at width 55 °. Using amendments resulted by the author on one degree of width (reaction to length of day) (Mishchenko, 2009. Tab. 4.4. With. 92), it is possible to calculate the sums of annual positive temperatures of air necessary for some cultures for the Kislovodsk hollow located within 43 ° of northern width. For summer soft wheat of different grades of precocity these sums of temperatures fluctuate from 1640 to 2000°С, for summer firm grades - from 1580 to 1940°С; for a winter wheat this indicator is in an interval 1660-1760°С, for barley - 1490-1630°С, for oats - 1490-1790°С. A little underestimated calculations of requirement for heat for the millet having for width of an arrangement of the Kislovodsk hollow of the sum of temperatures 1390-1695°С at the amendment in 15°С on one degree of width are represented. According to widely known research A.N. Novatsky, for high productivity of millet the annual sum of positive temperatures nearby 2300°С (Pryanishnikov, Yakushkin, 1936 is required. With. 4445). Similar supervision over absence of millet as grown up culture in connection with insufficiency of the sum of positive temperatures are resulted by authors of the collective monography about medieval moving around White lake (Makarov, etc., 2001. With. 120).

It is necessary to notice, that we took into consideration calculations of requirement for heat only those cultures which are fixed on settlements of the Kislovodsk hollow of different epoch in process karpologicheskogo the analysis spent by E.J.Lebedevoj in department of natural-science methods of Institute of archeology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (results are in processing).

If to construct cards of distribution of the annual sums of the positive temperatures calculated by means of the climatic module for a modern climate of studied region becomes obvious, that the bottom part of the Kislovodsk hollow which are at heights below 1100 m above sea level, has quite enough of heat for growth of any of listed above grain crops (fig. 121). The sums of temperatures here fluctuate from 1750 to 2500°С, that is represented quite sufficient for growth grain. All objects united in first klaster get to the given group (98 of 99), more than half of objects of the second klastera (153 of 229) and only 12 monuments from 165, got in the third klaster almost. Other half of supervision is necessary on absolute heights above 1100 m above sea level where the annual sums of positive temperatures fluctuate in limits 1150-2400°С, but in most cases (181 from 245) lay in limits 1500-2000°С. The similar sums of temperatures are represented sufficient for barley or oats ripening, but risky for spring wheat or millet cultivation. It is remarkable, that 68 settlements get to group of objects with similar temperature characteristics alanskoj cultures, 22 settlements kobanskoj, 72 sites terrasirovanija the first type and 19 sites of the second. At heights for which the sums of annual positive temperatures less 1500°С are characteristic, 30 objects, from which 13 settlements kobanskoj cultures, 9 rannesrednevekovyh settlements, 6 sites of terraces of the first and two sites of the second type lay. Thus, approximately half of the monuments considered in the analysis, does not possess now thermal conditions, sufficient for successful kultivirovanija grain crops. It is remarkable, that the sums of temperatures less 2000°С in the conditions of a modern climate are characteristic for the majority of sites terrasirovanija the first type (83 of 130) and only 34 of 90 sites terrasirovanija the second type. Hence, it is possible to draw a conclusion, that the spatial arrangement terrasnogo agriculture of the first type is not dated for a modern zone with heat enough whereas terrasnoe agriculture of the second type settles down basically in this warm zone.

Such are the analysed tendencies of modern climatic conditions of those places in which settlements and sites terrasirovanija different epoch have been found out. However we have all bases to believe, that during these epoch the climate was a little bit other (see Chapter 2). We will address to modelling of climatic conditions, characteristic for the "indignant" climate, and we will try to track their prominent features.

<< | >>
A source: Korobov Dmitry Sergeevich. SYSTEM of MOVING ALAN of the CENTRAL Ciscaucasia In I THOUSAND AD (LANDSCAPE ARCHEOLOGY of the KISLOVODSK HOLLOW). VOLUME 1. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of the doctor of historical sciences. Moscow -. 2014

More on topic § 3.8.2. Modelling of modern climatic conditions.:

  1. § 3.8.3. Modelling of the "indignant" climatic conditions.
  2. 3.1. The short characteristic of prirodno-climatic conditions and data on a modern condition and technology of horse breeding of Altai
  3. § 2.8. Methods of climatic GIS-MODELLING.
  4. Modelling of indicators of ecological and power efficiency of buildings with application of devices of passive solar heating in climatic parametres of the south of Russia
  5. value of prirodno-climatic and sanitary-and-hygienic conditions at a cholera
  6. THE DESCRIPTION OF FIZIKO-GEOGRAPHICAL AND CLIMATIC CONDITIONS IN THE KISLOVODSK HOLLOW AND HISTORY OF ITS SETTLING
  7. bargaining process modelling for the information blessing on the basis of features of a consumer choice in the conditions of electronic trade.
  8. Modern approaches «modelling and estimation methods organiyozatsionnoj cultures of the enterprise
  9. 2.1. Modern approaches and methods of modelling and an estimation of organizational culture of the enterprise
  10. § 2. Modelling UK 1962 and its role in formation of modern criminal law of states
  11. Applicability in modern conditions.
  12. § 3.8.1. Modelling of the modern and "indignant" dynamic indicators of a climate.
  13. Principles and designing receptions energoeffektivnyh zdayony in climatic parametres of the south of Russia
  14. 2.1. Objective necessity of re-structuring and reengineering of the enterprises and their organisation for modern conditions
  15. §2. The reasons and the conditions defining modern tax criminality.
  16. History of development and the modern doctrine about marriage conditions
  17. 6.1. The basic tendencies of transformation of relations of the property * at microlevel in modern conditions
  18. Innovative activity in modern conditions and a higher education role
  19. 1.1. Essence and significance of personnel selection in modern conditions