2.1. An estimation of investment risks in the industry

Definition of investment possibilities is a starting point for the activity connected with investment. In the end, it can the beginning of mobilisation of investment means. Potential investors are interested in reception of the information on arising investment possibilities.
To create such information, it is necessary to apply approaches at level of sector of economy of region or the country. For these approaches two directions of researches are characteristic.

at sector level it is necessary to analyze all investment potential of the country. At region level it is necessary to define concrete investment requests of individual projects.

the main tool used at a quantitative estimation of the information (fig. 2.1 see) which is required for development of idea of projects in specific proposals, is research of investment possibilities:

natural resources, suitable for processing;

existing structure of agriculture;

existing structure of the industry;

effect on environment;

import for definition of spheres of import of replacement;

export possibilities;

the general investment climate;

possible expansions of existing productions on the basis of integration or possibility diversifikatsii.

superficial character has Researches of investment possibilities and is based in bolshej degrees on the general estimations, than on the detailed analysis. Depending on circumstances should be carried out research or the general possibilities of region, or possibilities of the concrete project.

decision-making on investments is one of the most important business initiatives as investments connect financial resources for rather big period of time, despite possibilities of long changes. Activity of the investor occurs in the environment characterised by the raised risk level.

Risk it always the probability to lose the concrete capital, therefore is always paid by a question of decrease in risk the big attention. Questions of classification of risks became one of most often discussed in the modern Russian economic literature. The diversified variants of allocation of versions of the risks accompanying activity in the market are offered.

some authors total more than tens criteria of classification of risks, let alone quantity of allocated aspects. However the majority of such researches is unsuitable to application in practical activities in Russia.

for the purpose of management of risks in concrete conditions of the Russian investment climate, we will use kinds of concrete risks which accompany activity of investors in Russia.

these kinds of concrete risks follow from the classification scheme of risks mortgaged in GARP, uniting at the same time those risks which are classified by other ways.

a Fig. 2.1


we Will consider only that variant of classification of risks which is represented to the most adapted for practical risk management in the Russian market:

Stranovoj risk (risk of investments into the certain country, connected with changes of its political, economic and social system). The given kind of risk objectively is present, however it matters at a stage of decision-making on the investment beginning in this or that country.

It is natural, that political processes make on movement of the Russian market essential impact of a various sort. To prevent adverse effect of events of a political life on activity of the investor, it is necessary to conduct the constant tax of the political information.

an interest risk. The given kind of risk always is present at change of interest rates and can negatively influence the investor, through macroeconomic mechanisms.

branch risk. The given kind of risk is shown at concrete level of movement of the market.

a beta-risk. This risk reflects possibility of the adverse market as a whole and depends in many respects on such factors as political events, changes of a macroeconomic situation in the country, behind its limits etc. It means possibility of loss of money at work in the chosen market without dependence from concrete investment decisions.

Sobytijnyj risk:

risk of infringement of converting of currency. Means impossibility of converting of currencies as result of political events.

risk of change of the taxation;

risk of change of standard base;

risk of loss of reputation;

risk of approach of global force-majeur circumstances;

risk of loss of the rights of activity.

the Basic tools, allowing to minimise risks, are:

^analiticheskaja work.

analytical work as the element of reduction of risk allows to lower degree of uncertainty which always to some extent accompanies decision-making in the conditions of market economy. Decision-making in the presence of more complete and exact model of occurring processes will be more weighed and competent, and, hence, and less risky.

the information tax.

allows to minimise risk of infrastructural institutes. The information which is necessary for management of risks, we will divide into following groups:

the information on changes in standard base;

the information on taxation changes;

the information on the future events which can make essential impact on the investment market. For example, the political information, macroeconomic indicators of economy etc.;

the information on participants of the investment market.

the collected information should be grouped in blocks so that it could be used during analytical work.

adjustment of informal communications with infrastructural elements.

reduces infrastructural risk, and also forms a basis for polumenija information.

4. Insurance of bargains upon concrete risks.

a modern civilisation often name risk company. Further, with development of company the spectrum of risks will increase. Scientists of all world try to find methods in various branches of a science to increase reliability of forecasts, to reduce risks, or at least to make their predicted.

in this connection the active search of ways of perfection of modern methodology of the analysis and risk management of direct investments now is conducted. It will give to investors, on the one hand, the quantity of successfully realised projects will allow to increase possibilities of reception of more complete package of the information necessary for decision-making, on the other hand.

the main reason of restraint of formation bpagoprijatnogo an investment climate of subjects of the Russian Federation, still there is a limitation of financial assets, insufficiency of experience and qualified personnel in the field of an estimation of investment risks, and also backwardness of economic sphere and the legal environment in which managing subjects act. The investment climate existing today in the country does not favour to production updating, use of advanced achievements of a science and engineering in real sector of economy.

the primary goal of the Government of the Russian Federation in this sphere - survey vozglozhnosti maintenance organizational, scientific, methodical and a financial backing to these processes in country regions, including: - Formation of a reserve in the field of high technologies;

creation of the regional structures supplying institutsionalnoe association of subjects of an innovative cycle for revival of investment and innovative activity;

association of the interfaced productions;

involving of regional budgets in formation and realisation of investment projects (tax clearings, reduced rates, commodity and financial credits etc.) ;

support of small high technology business as the most dynamical and fast adapting for new conditions and its interactions with large industrial enterprises;

formation institutsionalnyh the structures supplying training of personnel.

without a strong state policy in the field of investment activity to achieve fundamental change in increase of competitiveness of domestic productions and decrease in investment risks it is impossible. And this position is fair not only for the Russian conditions. In industrially developed countries which have achieved impressing economic results, the strong state investment policy supplies an economy sustainable development.

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A source: BRYNTSEV Alexander Nikolaevich. FORMATION of the INVESTMENT CLIMATE In the INDUSTRY In the conditions of the FREE ECONOMIC zone. 2004

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