<<
>>

generalisation and analysis Methodology administrativnodeliktologicheskih researches. Features of research of the latent form administrative deliktnosti

The is administrative-Deliktologichesky facts fixed during research, do not give the finished scientific knowledge. The fact is only external expression of the phenomenon, and consequently gathering of data on the facts - the major and necessary, but only the first stage in studying of the reasons of the phenomena.

Not less responsible stage - processing and theoretical interpretation of the collected data.

At the analysis of the received data, as well as at their gathering, it is necessary to start with true obshchemetodologicheskih preconditions. They provide correctness of the analysis. Performance of methodological requirements does not mean, of course, an immediate theoretical explanation of the phenomenon. Both the analysis, and an explanation are not reduced to simple imposing of empirically received fact on a general-theoretical template. The analysis of data to simple comparison of the dynamic numbers characterising the differing or similar phenomena, to calculation of factors of correlation and relative density indexes is not reduced. To trace communications in their substantially qualitative and quantitative form it is possible only on the basis of their theoretical judgement.

On the same basis it is possible to explain transformation individual in the general, to see behind the fact the phenomenon, and behind the phenomenon its essence, on the basis of essence knowledge again to address to phenomenon studying in its concreteness, to explain the mechanism of display of the general intrinsic laws in those or other adverbial modifiers of place and time.

Realisation of methodological installations about system character of the analysis, about necessity to see object of research as a whole and at the same time divided into separate structural elements to cover all variety of internal communications - a problem very difficult. In the decision of this problem it is impossible to do without some necessary simplifications. Simplification, or abstraction from separate components, integrity, is not less important methodological requirement. The question only in admissible limits of abstraction for what account of elements and communications abstraction is reached and how to simplify representation about the validity, not having lost thus in informative capacity of these representations. The named problem especially sharply costs at the theoretical analysis of the collected data.

To resolve this problem the main thing, depending on the purposes and research problems is possible by means of allocation of levels of the analysis depending on the possibilities caused by character of the analyzed material, methodical armament of the researcher and. Borders of levels of the analysis mobile and vzaimoperehodjashchie. It is possible to allocate them only for any moment of informative activity.

It is possible to name administrative-deliktologicheskogo three levels of the analysis of a material, called to explain the reason administrative deliktnosti:

Simple comparisons and generalisations;

Statistical and settlement-mathematical working out of materials;

Creation of conceptual models.

Other important problem is generalisation and comparison problems it is administrative-deliktologicheskoj also the social and economic information, and also a problem with revealing of latent forms administrative deliktnosti.

Analytical methods of research allow to take from the received material much more the helpful information, than at the descriptive analysis and an estimation of an actual material. The important means of the analysis of data is generalisation and comparison of the received material to already known information. Any new knowledge is born from comparison of the information characterising the various parties of the phenomenon.

It is obvious, that comparison should be spent between data, though also various, but connected with the studied phenomenon and characterising this phenomenon or from more general system of relations (for example, communication between valuable orientation of the individual or certain quantity of persons with structure of the values existing in that system of relations in which these persons are included). Besides these data can be detailing (for example, comparison of the values acquired by the individual, to means of their realisation), or comparison of the one-serial phenomena with a view of revealing of certain communications between them (for example, quantity of the offences encroaching on a public order and morals, made on certain territory for certain time).

In similar cases it is possible to reveal and formulate the general principle of reception of new knowledge. That such knowledge has been received, it is necessary: an exit in other system of relations, revealing of interactions of considered system with this other system, reception of characteristics of such interaction, an estimation of these characteristics from the point of view of research problems. The named principle of informative activity reflects one of most general laws of development of the objective world where any new quality appears as a result of interaction homogeneous or more often) diverse systems.

In administratively-deliktologicheskih researches quantitative characteristics of is social-demographic, economic, cultural and other phenomena are compared.

Comparison of such phenomena will be sotsiologicheski true when isolated facts, and the generalised phenomena will be compared not. Generalisation - the first stage of the comparative analysis. The separate example can confirm not only a rule, but also an exception of it, and it is impossible to replace with meeting of examples of scientific generalisation.

Danger here that at generalisation not only casual, but also natural while individual, it is excluded. To catch new and to reject the casual the knowledge more the general laws of development of a society helps.

Not to miss the new classification of a studied material, its typical characteristics (for example, allocation of objectively existing social groups of the population, residential areas, etc.) helps. Ignoring of typical distinctions and excessively wide interpretation of conclusions promote loss of the significant information.

The working out of a hypothesis spent at preparatory investigation phases helps not only with material gathering, but also in its analysis. The hypothesis specifies not only in what facts are necessary for collecting, but also on what way it is more logical to go at generalisation of the facts.

Despite convention of borders of typical objects, only after definition of typical characteristics it is possible to start comparison and comparison of those or other groups of indicators. The researcher should take convention of borders into consideration, but this circumstance should not be an insuperable barrier in research. The clear research problem helps to develop criterion of comparability. It specifies, that should be, and from what it is possible to distract. It is obvious, that comparison is easier for leading on steady groups of indicators, for example at comparison of level administrative deliktnosti in two areas - to compare the most widespread, or the stablest, or kinds of administrative violations varying on the adjusted law. At comparison of indicators should be solved, what of these indicators will be the cores for carried out research - demographic, economic, welfare, etc., i.e. What indicators will be accepted as so-called independent variables, and what as dependent variables. Should be solved also, on what indicators comparison, on structural parities, on indicators of dynamics or on functional indicators will be spent. Structural comparisons are most convenient because of their certain static character at present and because of bolshej ease of revealing. In features of structure find reflexion dynamic and functional processes as as a result these processes the phenomenon takes this or that form.

At the decision of a question on what social and economic indexes for comparison with to take administrative-deliktologicheskimi indicators, when it is a question of wide studying administrativnodeliktologicheskih problems on certain object (in area, a city), that recommendation which give E.V.Dodin and V.K.Shkarupa [58, с.34] is represented correct. They suggest to select those indicators which have obvious communication with administrative-deliktologicheskimi the indicators of this object characterising the negative phenomena, influencing moral formation of citizens, on formation of public consciousness. They fairly add, that among those who does not work and does not study, administrative deliktnost is considerable above. Let's add, that when the problem of "omittance" of administrative violations, low level administrative deliktnosti in any settlement is studied, can be studied and positive sotsialnoekonomicheskie indicators.

The deep scientific and public interest shown now to problems of studying and counteraction administrative deliktnosti, staticized requirement for increase of accuracy knowledge of level and dynamics administrative deliktnosti. Not belittling importance of perfection of is administrative-legal statistics, it is necessary to tell, what even at achievement of the greatest possible level of accuracy, a coordination, automation of processing and other merits of is administrative-legal statistics the data given by it, nevertheless cannot reflect full quantity of perfect administrative violations. It is connected with existence latent forms administrative deliktnosti. Not each of perfect administrative violations becomes to known tribunals. The latent form administrative deliktnosti is peculiar to all categories of administrative violations, but depending on character of administrative violations the share of the latent form administrative deliktnosti at various categories will be unequal. In the administrative violations encroaching on a public order and morals, the share of the latent form administrative deliktnosti is insignificant, and in administrative violations, in sphere of sanitary-and-epidemiologic well-being of the population, it will be appreciable. Concerning petty thefts, apparently, it is lawful to assume, that the parity between the revealed and latent forms of administrative violations here will move towards increase in a share of the latent form of administrative violations.

It is not necessary to think, that the latent form administrative deliktnosti influences only accuracy of data about total of made administrative violations. Negative consequences of this phenomenon are much wider, and they lay in sotsialnoekonomicheskoj and is social-psychological spheres of a life of a society. Therefore the general meaning of a problem of the latent form administrative deliktnosti cannot be underestimated. More considerable concerns number of its negative consequences first of all in comparison with the established administrative violations an economic damage from not revealed administrative violations.

Negative influence on citizens renders and opinion inevitably formed in similar cases that administrative violations can be made with impunity. The opinion it can arise under the influence of the most various data. Accident of such data does not stir, thanking their big impressing influence, their accumulation in consciousness and to occurrence at the individual of adverse and wrong opinion. Therefore more exact and wider informing of citizens on existence and approximate scales of the latent form administrative deliktnosti and, the main thing, that the state and a society aspire to its decrease, has important value.

Existence of the latent form administrative deliktnosti reduces and obshchepriventivnoe influence of an is administrative-legal policy, conflicts to its main principle consisting in that any of perfect administrative violations should not be not opened. Absence of scientifically proved representations about scales of the latent form administrative deliktnosti indirectly influences not only the relation of the public to a problem administrative deliktnosti as a whole, but affects the size of assignments and structure of the establishments directly combating with administrative deliktnostju.

Absence of exact data on level of the latent form administrative deliktnosti complicates work of scientists - administrativistov as conclusions of scientists will be that obosnovannee, than their interesting phenomenon is more full studied. Such aspects of studying administrative deliktnosti as administratively-deliktologichesky forecast of movement administrative deliktnosti, and also mathematical receptions and methods of processing administratively-deliktologicheskih given should be based on the analysis of the dynamic numbers characterising administrative deliktnost and adjacent with it the social phenomena, and are for this purpose necessary probably more exact data about a condition administrative deliktnosti.

Certainly, registered administrative deliktnost it is possible to consider as sample of the general number of administrative violations. But in this connection there is a question on, whether it is enough for scientific working out and reception of true conclusions of consideration of this "sample", i.e. a question about reprezentativnosti "sample". Detailed consideration of the given problem, certainly, deserves special studying, here again it is necessary to be limited only to the general basic remarks.

Definition reprezentativnosti samples in considered aspect is seriously complicated by ignorance of the general number of perfect administrative violations, but nevertheless, with some assumptions, it is possible both for administrative deliktnosti as a whole, and for separate kinds of administrative violations. However depending on a kind of administrative violations the indicator reprezentativnosti the registered share will vary. The increasing changes in an indicator reprezentativnosti will occur at more and more differentiated approach to character of administrative violations. Some categories of administrative violations so are not similar, that general, their joint studying will not be fruitful.

Reprezentativnost it can be observed and at casual character of sample if its necessary volume is provided. The share registered administrative deliktnosti in all its existing "general totality" is great enough. But, first, reprezentativnosti it is necessary to prove degree specially with reference to each category of administrative violations, and, secondly, the principle of casual sample can be not observed because of any objective causes (as occurs actually). As a result the administrative violations possessing the important characteristics, influencing their obvious or latent character, will concentrate in group registered or to remain in number not revealed and in the latter case - to drop out of scientific consideration. Already from the resulted reasons the desirability, and even necessity of scope is clear at administrative-deliktologicheskom studying of the latent form administrative deliktnosti.

At the same time it is possible to establish, that the Kazakhstan researchers administrative deliktnosti give to a problem of the latent form administrative deliktnosti insufficient attention. Methods of such revealing are the main link in the given problem. Improvement of our knowledge of the difficult and latent phenomenon is impossible without improvement of methods of their reception.

N.P.Myshljaev considers, that, considering a question on check of messages on perfect administrative violations, it is necessary to speak about the found out information on administrative violations, instead of about found out administrative deliktnosti [124, s.24-25]. It is necessary to agree With similar opinion, at the same time, it is necessary to consider, that the research objective can be and in reception of data about administrative deliktnosti. The accent on the information party of this question is justified, as helps with working out of methodical problems of the latent form administrative deliktnosti.

Difficulties of the decision of a question on level latent administrative deliktnosti are extremely great even if to try to solve it only with some degree of approach. They are connected with character of the studied phenomenon.

M.I.Nikulin, paying attention to importance and complexity of a problem latent administrative deliktnosti and defining the basic direction of its studying, specified in necessity of working out of criteria and a technique of definition latent administrative deliktnosti by an establishment of the indirect signs testifying to its presence. This thought plans the most perspective ways of the decision of a question on level latent administrative deliktnosti [125, with. 126-132].

Indirect methods of revealing such administrative deliktnosti allow to operate with data not about the process or the phenomenon, and data on their consequences. Thereby the problem of revealing of the latent form administrative deliktnosti is transformed to a problem of revealing of consequences of illegal activity, and it prompts also more concrete ways of research. Recognising that the administrative violations having the material nature, leave in an external world any material traces and, being human actions, mention relations between people, there is possible an establishment of objective consequences of wrongful acts. Hence, there is a possibility to lean at definition of quantity of observed actions on indirect objective methods. At the same time it is possible (and sometimes it is the unique way) to address to value judgment of the latent form administrative deliktnosti. But at reception of such estimations it is necessary to resort to the special techniques raising their reliability.

At use of indirect objective methods, first of all, it is necessary to solve, in what consequences of those or other actions (administrative violations) can objectively be expressed. Having answered this question, it is possible to plan ways of reception of objective data on which basis it is possible to do the proved conclusions about quantity of unknown administrative violations, about level and dynamics latent administrative deliktnosti.

Such data on consequences of administrative violations which find reflexion in any registration documents are most convenient for the analysis. At transition in such analysis to concrete object the general representation about level latent administrative deliktnosti, and business about concrete administrative violation will be result any more. Complexity and bulkiness of such analysis demands much of its technique and assumes excellent knowledge of features of the administrative legislation.

Statistical and studying of level, structure and dynamics of the latent form administrative deliktnosti and the phenomena accompanying it on the basis of indirect objective data in certain cases and limits probably is administrative-deliktologicheskoe. Researches in this direction can yield interesting results.

At the same time even at maximum use of objective indicators for revealing of level of the latent form administrative deliktnosti considerable uncertainty will remain nevertheless. For reception of data on level and tendencies of changes of the latent form administrative deliktnosti inevitably it is necessary to resort in addition to subjective opinions and the estimations given by competent persons.

Condition or tendencies of change of the social phenomenon or the process, established by simple (direct) generalisations and comparisons, do not settle all volume of the helpful information which can be taken from the available researcher administrative deliktnosti the facts and data. The is administrative-Deliktologichesky facts and data if they represent some mass sets and distributions, can be subjected more difficult kinds of the quantitative analysis, namely statistical and mathematical.

Use of statistical and mathematical methods allows to receive a number of practically important estimations and characteristics at the analysis of materials concrete is administrative-deliktologicheskih researches.

Now the question on legitimacy of use of mathematical methods in social studies, and a question on limits, forms and the bases of such use is discussed not. This question requires discussion with reference to a subject of each concrete science and in connection with continuous development and perfection of mathematical methods. In process of more and more wide use of mathematical methods for knowledge of the public phenomena it is necessary to underline crucial importance of methodology.

As all statistical methods and the majority of methods of the mathematical analysis are based on quantitative sizes and parities formalisation of sociological indicators should precede application of these methods.

Socially significant fact, object or situation becomes unit of the analysis and the account in studying of the public phenomena, as a rule. And to consider it is possible or number of displays of events or the facts, or term (time) of their display, or any sizes characterising geography of their distribution, napravlenno changes, etc.

For entering of a structural order into set of numerical data such simple ways of representation of numerical data, as tables, schedules and factors can be used with success. The named ways of streamlining of numerical sizes are not only a preparatory stage to carrying out of more difficult mathematical analysis, but also serve as rather serious analytical tool. Analytical qualities of these simple receptions are quite often underestimated, and they (especially schedules) at the analysis of materials administratively-deliktologicheskih researches should find wider application. It is represented expedient short to consider analytical possibilities and features of the named receptions.

Statistical tables represent the system of numbers located in a rectangular co-ordinate grid, consisting of columns and lines. The table is statistical when it reflects results of statistical supervision or results of generalisation of data on a number of objects, areas, etc. The numerical data presented in cages of the table, contain data on object of studying and on indicators by which the object of studying is characterised. Tables can be three kinds: simple, group, combinational. Simple tables happen perechnevymi, territorial and chronological (for the characteristic of development of process in time). In group tables the studied object is divided into groups to any sign. Drawing up of such table is preceded by grouping, typification of objects. If the grouping is spent to several signs, and each group shares on subgroups it will be the combinational table.

Discriminate tables and on a way of the characteristic of object. Here they also can be simple or difficult. Difficult have columns of everything","including". Such division does the table substantial, allows to characterise studied structure in more details.

That the constituted table was easier for studying, it should not be excessively big. For this purpose it is sometimes expedient to integrate, consolidate indicators or to build some tables. Data it is necessary to have in the table so that compared figures settled down the friend under the friend. Under the table it is possible to judge the sum of put sizes, about deviations from average sizes, about that as well as where this or that level of a sign is grouped that helps to trace laws in distribution of studied characteristics.

Schedules - one more kind of representation of analyzed sizes at which numerical values of these sizes are translated in visions. The graphic representation of sizes has considerable conveniences that allows to use widely schedules in analytical work. They give information presentation. The graphic method is least labour-consuming and at the same time diverse enough. He allows to compare indicators for any interval of time, illustrates dynamics, interrelation and dependence is indicative.

Schedules allow to compare among themselves results of the researches spent on one problem by different researchers as the schedule well illustrates parities of levels, quantities, etc., and parities are easy for comparing.

In the statistics theory it is considered possible use of graphic representations in following purposes [123, with. 124]:

1) For the characteristic of development of the phenomena in time (in dynamics);

2) for comparison of any statistics with the same name concerning different objects;

3) for finding-out of the geographical characteristic of the studied phenomenon;

4) for characteristic of structure (structure) of any phenomenon and changes which occur in their structure;

5) for studying of dependence of one phenomenon from another.

The schedule can be in the form of statistical curve (the linear schedule), the located in rectangular or polar system of co-ordinates. Such schedules are convenient for the analysis of development of the phenomenon in time. At rectangular system of co-ordinates on an axis of abscisses the time periods (their horizontal arrangement more habitually), and on an axis of ordinates - characterised indicators are postponed. At polar (radial) system of co-ordinates as an absciss the circle, and ordinate - radius or its continuation for circle limits serves. Such schedule is compact and well illustrates phenomenon development in time, especially when there is a closed time cycle (days of week, hours of days, etc.) The kind of schedules (curve steepness) depends on a parity of scales of both considered indicators and consequently that the curve was not excessively abrupt or too flat, their scale should get out carefully. The intervals of time postponed on an axis of abscisses, in all cases should be proportional to duration of the analyzed periods of time

Linear schedules are suitable not only for the analysis of development of the phenomenon in time, but also for display of an arrangement of considered signs. For this purpose on ordinate number or frequency of occurrence of a sign of the phenomenon, and on an absciss - degree or a variant of its display is postponed. Such schedules and for finding-out of dependence of one sign from another are used. Thus each of signs is postponed on one of axes.

Feature of linear schedules consists that they allow to receive representation about the phenomenon which is falling outside the limits spent supervision as suppose extrapolation and interpolation possibility. However this possibility should use with the big care.

At studying of the person of offenders of rules of administrative law the schedule consisting of one straight line on which stages of succession of events or process are marked can be used. It is convenient for mutual comparisons. If years of a life of the studied person are postponed for lines, on it badges (different for each of considered events) mark events (the beginning of labour activity, a marriage, formation reception, fulfilment of the first administrative violation etc., etc.). Such «the life line» can be compared and with a line characterising development of any process (a stage of an alcoholism, a narcotism, etc.).

Comparing, thus, separate series of supervision, it is easier to overcome difficulties of selection of control groups as display of studied property or a sign can be supervised in one and that ZHR groups. Lines as a whole or size of their separate pieces can be compared. It is easy to compare thus the same age groups of persons, to consider calendar year of approach of event and, on the contrary, knowing a calendar year to compare age, etc.

For the analysis of levels of intensity or prevalence of the phenomena use stylar (tape) diagrammes. Diagrammes in the form of the image of volumes (a cube, a sphere) are applied seldom as by engineering psychology it is proved, that they are perceived worse [123, с.126].

Stylar, and especially circular (sector), diagrammes are widely used for the characteristic of structure of the phenomenon. Simultaneously with their help can be characterised and its dynamics.

The schedule is a conditional (sign) model. But the combination of the schedule to some geometrically at similarity is possible. It is reached in cartograms - schematic maps or plans on which separately studied areas are designated variously, in dependence, on size of a represented sign inherent in given area Distinction in intensity of display of a studied sign is expressed by various density of points or shadings or various degree of intensity of colouring. In advance it is reserved, what size of an indicator corresponds to one point or certain colour tone.

On a cartogram distribution of several studied signs of the phenomenon (for example, shading - population density, and points - quantity made around administrative violations) can be represented. By colour any characteristic can be allocated still. The cartogram is convenient for the analysis of prevalence of those or others is administrative-deliktologicheskih characteristics in certain territory in comparison to other social and economic characteristics. It is possible to constitute administratively-deliktologichesky atlas for a number of areas. On a cartogram as the basic sign level administrative deliktnosti, characteristic for certain area (as a whole or by its separate kinds), and for example, such characteristics of the persons who have made administrative violations, as their birthplace, work or a residence can be displayed not.

At all importance of a graphic method of interpretation of analyzed data it is necessary to consider and essential restriction of its possibilities in adequate it is administrative-deliktologicheskih descriptions. The schedule allows to display interaction only two sizes. By schedule complication probably introduction of the third size at its construction in three-co-ordinate system. At construction of the three-co-ordinate schedule on a plane the perception of displayed sizes happens is already complicated. However construction of the three-dimensional schedule in a volume variant is possible. It will be the topographical or landscape schedule as its appearance reminds model of a lay of land. On such schedule law of change of number of recidivists depending on interaction of two any sizes (the legislation, sotsialnoekonomicheskih conditions, terms of stay in the places of confinement etc.) can be displayed, for example.

The three-dimensional schedule can not only describe the fact sheet, but also explain results of interaction of any sizes as reflects a measure of their interaction. Construction of more difficult (multidimensional) schedules and models for direct their visual perception is impossible. For the interaction analysis bolshego quantities of variables it is necessary to use the computer technics, capable to carry out operation in so-called multidimensional space.

It is necessary to mention and such graphic way of the analysis of considered indicators, as nomogramma. Nomogramma allows to find value of some size depending on two others. It usually consists of several (to 10) vertical scales, each of which is graduated in such a manner that, having found value of two indicators (on two scales) and having connected these two points, on crossing of a connecting line with other scales nomogrammy we find values of all other indicators corresponding two initial. Nomogramma it is suitable only for the quantitative description of the phenomenon in the event that its quantitative characteristics are preliminary revealed.

Interdependence of the phenomena and their signs can graphically be displayed by means of so-called counts, i.e. Schemes of communications of objects or the phenomena. The theory of counts quickly develops and application in concrete sciences, including social [126, с.32] finds.

Indexes - the important kind of generalising indicators in the statistican. As an index usually is called the numerical indicator displaying a relative parity of some properties or communications of object. That such parities have been defined, these properties and communications should be presented in the form of numerical sizes. Value of index parities that they allow to spend comparison directly incommensurable, i.e., non-uniform under the social maintenance, sizes. Thus, it is possible to receive from comparison of quantitative sizes qualitative characteristics of object or the phenomenon, representation about their changes in time and space. Quantitative expression of the parities received thus allows to spend exact measurements of levels of intensity of the phenomena or size of signs of object.

Diverse indicators are led to a commensurable kind on a basis before the established interrelation. Proceeding from it, in administrative deliktologii the index of level administrative deliktnosti should be formed of a parity between quantity of the administrative violations made in certain territory, and number of the population living in the same place.

The given index calculated on 100 thousand or other quantity of the population, is based on communication between a population and quantity of administrative violations.

The index acts, as a structural indicator, allowing, for example, to compare level administrative deliktnosti in various territories. But simultaneously he, being a structural indicator, will allow to study dynamics of the phenomenon. For this purpose some period of time is necessary for accepting for the basic period. Compared with basic the period can be called the accounting. The index will be chain if each previous year is base for comparison. The choice of the basic period at the analysis of dynamics of the phenomenon depends on the research problem. If basic number to accept for 100 the scale of changes becomes more convenient as it is possible to express it in percentage. As a basic index average can be considered for set an indicator.

The index gives the chance not only to compare structure and to analyze dynamics, but also to study a role of the factors influencing change of the phenomenon. Thus studied factor is considered in change, and the phenomenon connected with it is fixed at certain level (for example, at studying of influence of the real income per capita on administrative deliktnost.

As the index expresses the relation between the indicators characterising mass, statistical processes, it is possible to consider it «as a measure of the central tendency in dynamics of some group of objects» [122, с.656] and the convention of an index does not deprive of its this property.

The index can be used and for comparison of results of answers to questions of questionnaires.

If the parities reflected in an index, have constant character for any groups or territories such index can be used as correction factor with which help it is possible to judge the characteristic of the structure studied at its change, i.e. there is a possibility of forecasting of the phenomenon. One of such factors is, for example, the factor reflecting a stable parity between man's and female administrative deliktnostju.

The logic device of the analysis social and economic and be administrative-deliktologicheskih the facts can it is considerably strengthened at the expense of use of some methods of the mathematical analysis. These methods allow more effectively, than at use of usual statistical tables, to analyze the information received as a result of research. At once it is necessary to be reserved, that the majority of methods of the mathematical analysis is applicable only there where quantitative expressions of the investigated phenomena and processes are received, and preliminary accurate information of problems which should be solved by means of the mathematical analysis is necessary.

In the present work detailed consideration of those or other methods and receptions of the mathematical analysis is inexpedient. They so spetsializirovany also are difficult, that their use can be provided only by the persons received mathematical preparation and specialising in any concrete kind of the analysis. Besides application of such methods as the method of correlation and especially correlation plural analysis, demands so considerable volume of computing work, that its carrying out cannot be carried out without participation of collective of mathematicians and use of electronic computers. The researcher administrative deliktnosti is limited to acquaintance only with the basic features of such methods. As a rule, it is enough of it for statement before corresponding experts of a problem in application of corresponding mathematical methods.

Now in social and economic researches the method correlation or regressionnogo the analysis is most widely used. This kind of the mathematical analysis is suitable for measurement of narrowness of communication between those either other signs or factors of the studied phenomenon. It is a way of a quantitative estimation of degree of narrowness of communication and character of interaction of signs in time. The quantitative measure of communication is called as factor of correlation and serves as criterion of correctness of conclusions about influence of some factors on the studied phenomenon. The correlation analysis allows to save up as though and on this basis to allocate constant influences of one signs of a pas others, to delimit them from influence of the casual. The correlation factor can be the general, cumulative (characterising communication of some size with all others) and private. At abstraction from influence of all sizes, except one checked, the factor of narrowness of communication is called as the private.

Studying of difficult internal interrelations demands the multidimensional statistical analysis, application of the device of plural or cumulative correlation and other methods.

The majority of the authors considering problems of use of correlation methods in social studies, fairly underline their some limitation as presence of a certain parity between phenomenon two or more signs yet does not mean presence between them a relationship of cause and effect. Mathematical methods as methods especially formal are not suitable for definition of the reasons of the phenomenon, they only show external relations and the relations requiring the subsequent qualitative consideration. It is especially important when outwardly connected two phenomena have the basis general phenomenon some more. It is possible to establish, for example, rather high factor of correlation between alternation of sea inflow and quantity of the cars which are passing on streets of a seaside city at certain o'clock. But it is impossible to recognise inflow by the reason of change of transport streams. Both these phenomena have a general reason - daily rotation of the Earth [127, с.231].

Additional difficulty of use of the correlation analysis consists in studying of the social phenomena that measurement of qualitative signs always conditionally, and their so-called normal distribution is seldom achievable. Use of such signs can give a progressing error at repeated use of these sizes in calculations under difficult formulas. To reduce an error alignment of statistical numbers on a way called by a method of the least squares allows.

The analysis used for preliminary selection of the most significant (independent) factors can be an intermediate phase of the correlation analysis. Such intermediate analysis represents not that other, as research of structure of the phenomenon displayed in the special table (matrix) where factors of pair correlation of analyzed data are marked. These factors form a basis for the correlation analysis. The device of the similar analysis leans on already measured data, it is not suitable for their measurement.

For research of quantitatively not representable factors influencing the phenomenon, dispersive and latent analyses [127, с.244] are used. In particular, at processing of answers to questions of questionnaires or tests it is possible to define, how people depending on character of the answer to this or that question are meted. The word "latent" underlines difference of the information received as a result of mathematical processing of primary data, from the information received directly as a result of interrogation or supervision.

Helps an estimation of the importance of studied factors and one more formalnomatematichesky reception - the consecutive analysis.

By means of such analysis it is possible to identify as though, and then numerically to estimate the revealed and studied factors. Essential advantage of the consecutive analysis consists that it provides work with rather small number of units of studied set and depending on results allows or to be limited to this quantity, or to select them even before reception enough certain result.

Some branches of mathematical statistics can give to the researcher administrative deliktnosti interesting ideas and give a mathematical apparatus for working out and check of various concepts. It is the theory of mass service, reliability theory, the theory of games and statistical decisions.

The theory of statistical decisions considers, in particular, a problem of a choice of a line of action the person or a society when there is no information on all factors influencing occurrence of the phenomenon. This theory and the theory of games can be useful by working out of separate aspects of preventive work.

With their help it is possible to estimate, for example, the real public harm brought by administrative violation and administrative deliktnostju and to compare it to socially useful activity. Consideration of problems of administrative violation in concepts of "benefit" and the "loss", games used in the theory, helps to estimate efficiency of imposing of the official penalty and other questions of counteraction administrative deliktnosti. It allows to solve a question on what direction of counteraction administrative deliktnosti it is the most expedient under the given conditions.

At mathematics application in the decision administrativnodeliktologicheskih problems it is necessary to underline difficulties of use of mathematical methods constantly. In the general view these difficulties are connected with discrepancy between level of understanding of law of social behaviour and a level of development of modern mathematics. The nature of a social life is so difficult, that classical methods of mathematics not always correspond to those problems which are put forward by studying of the social phenomena.

Requirements of practice should lead to creation of the mathematics capable strictly and full analyze the social phenomena. Now not quantitative directions of mathematics, suitable for structural and system studying of objects quickly develop. Methods of the topological analysis, and especially modelling methods in which mathematicians have approached to studying of qualitative properties the phenomenon, already now act as the important means of studying of the social validity.

One of important problems facing administrative deliktologiej at the present stage is construction of conceptual models in administrative deliktologii and forecasting administrative deliktnosti.

The mathematical apparatus of any complexity is capable to show and show communications, but not to create the phenomenon theory. Working out of the theoretical concept explaining the reason of occurrence of the given phenomenon, is carried out by means of a hypothesis. Reception of a theoretical conclusion - the closing stage in scientific working out of a concrete question.

It is obvious, what even the research closing stage is only the moment in development of knowledge of the difficult phenomenon and consequently correct will consider construction of the theoretical concept as a method of development of knowledge. This position became especially evident after the modelling method has widely entered into a science.

The concept "modelling" has got universal character after many general principles underlying various methods of knowledge have been established, therefore various authors suggest to understand as model «financially displayed system which reproduces object of research, can be used instead of this object and is capable to give the new information on object» [128, с.16].

In the resulted definition the maintenance of concept "model", in our opinion, is a little narrowed, that is probably connected with because of desire of the author to underline an informative role of model. The model describes object within the limits of certain conceptual system, in this or that system of signs, and this description inseparably linked with development of theoretical representation about the object existing in a concrete science. Philosophers correctly notice, that «the model is an attempt of theoretical reproduction,« theoretical reconstruction »object interesting us» [129, с.19]. Such understanding of model and modelling allows to pay attention to informative value of conceptual models.

It is necessary for underlining, as in administrative deliktologii owing to specificity of object of research its realisation out of theoretical and abstract definitions and concepts is impossible. On the other hand, administrative deliktologija yet has not reached that degree of development to create the complete and extremely formalized mathematical models. The given circumstance also forces to focus attention on conceptual, theoretical models now. At the same time it is necessary to pass at once to construction of exact mathematical models as soon as the found out parities and communications will allow to make it.

If as modelling to understand the object description in this or that system of signs (semantic, graphic, symbolical, etc.) it is necessary to recognise, that any scientific definition of object already is its model.

The general for all models quality is presence of isomorphic structure of studied object. The model structure can be static or dynamic, that concerns already its internal characteristic. The model as one of knowledge means can be used for display of structure of the studied phenomenon, either its functions, or istoriko-genetic development. Organic connection of all these parties in system model will be the higher stage of modelling.

In model it is possible to use only unified categories, definitions and statements. It is not necessary to mix in one model various "languages", meaning distinction, both on abstraction level, and on a "language" accessory to this or that formalized system of concepts.

In what sense of modelling as knowledge method? Why "modelling" from the tool of an explanation and an illustration of scientific positions turns to a heuristic method? First, because any scientific definition already bears any heuristic loading, allowing them to operate in the course of knowledge for comparisons to this definition of the facts of a reality. Secondly, popularity of modelling has started to increase quickly since researchers began to address to studying of more and more difficult phenomena and processes. Here advantages of modelling as knowledge method have got crucial importance.

The modelling method allows «to simplify a picture received on the basis of old methods» [129, с.6] and at the same time to keep considerable nauchnopoznavatelnyj potential.

Modelling acts as a knowledge method on the foreground when the empirical picture of the studied phenomenon is incomplete, is not found out in details. Synthesis of our knowledge of concrete object and revealing important for research of its not studied parties - here the basic advantages of modelling as knowledge method.

The idea of multilevel construction of knowledge is to the full applicable and to construction of models. The investigated problem as a whole can be covered the interconnected complex of models, and separate sides of the problem - concrete, private models. Here, for example, as it is possible to display position that the individual in the behaviour carries out a way choice to the planned purpose and, passing through concrete vital situations, accumulates life experience selectively. It is possible to approve, that experience is a result of a choice. In turn the choice is a function of experience, valuable orientation. In both variants the account of situations in which the choice is carried out is important.

More often the model is created for the analysis of structural or other communications and the greatest attention is paid to fixation of communications. Possibility of multilevel construction of models allows to release model from excessive details and to reveal on it the most essential properties. Such position to the person is important at research of individual behaviour and distribution is administrative-deliktogennyh influences, and also at the analysis of preventive work of the state bodies. As problems and methods of the science administrative deliktologii can be displayed.

Any model can be replaced with the best in process of perfection of representations about reality to which knowledge any model approaches us.

The important quality of a method of modelling is its applicability in prognostike. The problem of forecasting of social processes in process of science development about laws and features of social development draws the increasing attention.

In a society organised on scientific bases, the management of social processes should be based on a prediction of their development. Difficulties in reception of social forecasts are exclusively great, as forecasting is carried out in difficult sphere of social processes.

At forecasting it is necessary to lean against the basic laws underlying these processes, including the laws defining a today's condition of the studied phenomenon.

The future arises from the present. Therefore a forecasting basis is the knowledge of the validity in all its aspects and the account of the laws learnt quite often on a historical material. Likelihood character of interaction of the facts forming the reason of the phenomenon, and unpredictability of this interaction in details, rigid frameworks, also does not deprive of possibility to formulate prognosticheskie conclusions. But the formulation should be likelihood.

The difficulties connected with social forecasting, completely concern and such social phenomenon, as administrative deliktnost. The problem of forecasting administrative deliktnosti consists in research of the reasons administrative deliktnosti in which result probably expressly or by implication to express the opinion on the future development of this phenomenon.

The use of a word "forecast" with reference to administrativnodeliktologicheskim to past theories is not absolutely exact. It is better to speak about guesses, a prediction etc. as now the term "forecasting" has got sense of a scientific prediction.

Scientific character of the organisation of counteraction administrative deliktnosti demands correlation of measures and means of this struggle against a prediction of movement of the most administrative deliktnosti. The problem of forecasting administrative deliktnosti ceases to be purely scientific and becomes for a society the important practical problem.

Is administrative-Deliktologichesky forecasting should lean not only against the laws inherent administrative deliktnosti, but also consider other social processes that raises validity and accuracy of administratively-deliktologicheskih forecasts and allows to plan struggle with administrative deliktnostju.

The knowledge of essence of occurrence and development administrative deliktnosti as a whole and laws of change administrative deliktnosti also is exclusively important for reliability increase administratively-deliktologicheskih forecasts, for their concrete definition.

At administrative-deliktologicheskom forecasting in difference, for example, from the economic the result of activity of a society and the state, and some "spontaneous" process which is not growing out of specially organised activity is predicted not. Only from the point of view of the offender, and that not always, the illegal encroachment carries purposeful and in advance planned character.

The question on character administrative deliktnosti and degrees of its determinancy other phenomena of a public life requires special consideration with reference to specific problems of administratively-deliktologicheskogo forecasting. The choice of information base of the forecast appreciably depends on the decision of this question.

Along with certain stability of quantity indicators administrative deliktnosti in it there are also the casual fluctuations which influence needs to be defined. For this purpose, in turn, it is necessary to define the nature of occurrence of such accidents and that, whence they "enter" into process of formation and change administrative deliktnosti.

Planning and programming of counteraction administrative deliktnosti should consider presence in this phenomenon of the laws shown in the form of accidents. Under programming rigid planning of regulating efforts of a society when it has knowledge, forces and means to solve a specific target in the set terms without dependence from alternatives and degrees of probabilities of achievement of desirable decisions here means.

The question on possibilities and limits of programming of problems of counteraction administrative deliktnosti is combined. Programming leans against the forecast, and forecasting, itself is administrative-deliktologicheskoe, being likelihood, appreciably is based on likelihood forecasts of development of social and economic processes. Thus, likelihood character administratively-deliktologicheskogo forecasting becomes even more obvious.

Is administrative-Deliktologichesky forecasting is connected with purposeful activity of a society, with planning of development of social processes. It puts forward a question that comes under administratively-deliktologicheskomu to forecasting that should be object of such forecast.

It is necessary to consider the problem and on terms administrativnodeliktologicheskogo forecasting.

Forecasting of level administrative deliktnosti the important problem facing to a modern is administrative-legal science. Is administrative-Deliktologichesky forecasting is, first of all, a prediction of level administrative deliktnosti in the given territory in the given year. The similar information is, of course, necessary. But whether enough such prediction for the organisation of successful struggle with administrative deliktnostju?

If level administrative deliktnosti in any year for the decision of scientific and practical problems of counteraction administrative deliktnosti the big additional work to "open" this indicator with reference to needs of preventive work, etc. Many of such practical problems inevitably is required is named will demand independent forecasts which can, by the way speaking, to change and the general forecast.

Therefore administratively-deliktologicheskoe forecasting cannot be limited to working out of offers on possible level administrative deliktnosti in the future.

Object be administrative-deliktologicheskogo forecasting others can also (any) significant for administrative deliktologii and the organisations of counteraction administrative deliktnosti factors, the phenomena and processes, as that:

- Quantity of those or other administrative violations;

- The size of the damage caused by administrative violations;

- Quantity of victims from administrative violations and their is social-demographic characteristics;

- Place and way of fulfilment of administrative violations etc.

At administratively-deliktologicheskom forecasting are considered

Degree of influence administrative deliktnosti on morals and economy, influence on administrative deliktnost social conditions,

Demographic situation etc.

In other words, if administrative deliktologija, being a science about administrative deliktnosti, develops system of the scientific

Representations about administrative deliktnosti any component or the element of an objective reality concerning this system, can be included in administrative-deliktologicheskoe forecasting.

Conditions (quantities, etc.) and dependences (relationships of cause and effect) can be predicted.

Criteria on which the scientific system of representations about administrative deliktnosti is created should be criteria of selection of objects of forecasting. To solve a question that connects elements of administratively-deliktologicheskih knowledge and representations, it is necessary to add the general definition of system as complex of the interconnected elements with the important sign - a final problem which is solved by system. To solve a problem, to carry out certain function or a complex of functions - property of any system though, of course, given statement first of all concerns the systems created by the person.

The theoretical knowledge, being itself as a whole the important element of practical system of measures of counteraction administrative deliktnosti, should satisfy first of all with the internal structure needs of practice, provide theoretical validity and practical approachibility of the state regulating influence on administrative deliktnost.

Revealing is administrative-deliktogennyh the reasons and conditions, and also forecasting of their influence for a condition administrative deliktnosti - the precondition of successful practical activities in preventive maintenance of these negative phenomena. An estimation of positive and negative social processes - also a forecasting problem.

Development forecasting administratively-deliktologicheskogo object can be carried out on:

To quantity indicators of its development (scales);

To changes of those or other characteristics not giving in to an exact quantitative estimation and parametres;

To system and structural characteristics (to quantity of elements and communications between them, degrees of complexity of system etc.).

The prediction of development of process in time even if it is deprived quantity indicators, can show the tendency, speed of its increase or decrease, will give quality standard of stability or inertsionnosti process, will allow to consider character of laws defining it.

Important obshchemetodologicheskim the requirement by working out of forecasts is poetapnost decisions of a problem of forecasting. Forecasting of changes administrative deliktnosti as a whole on the country, and especially in regional aspect, short-term and for long terms should be one of preconditions of successful preventive work. The knowledge and influence on the present should be led from positions of the forthcoming future.

3

<< | >>
A source: ABDRAHMANOV BAUYRZHAN ERMEKOVICH. Administrative deliktologija in Republic Kazakhstan (conceptual theoretical and methodological problems). The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of the doctor of juridical science. Republic Kazakhstan of Almaty, 2010. 2010

More on topic generalisation and analysis Methodology administrativnodeliktologicheskih researches. Features of research of the latent form administrative deliktnosti:

  1. Features of methods of individual preventive maintenance administrative deliktnosti in system of the is social-legal control
  2. Chapter 1. The tool analysis in methodology of the civil Researches
  3. Classification of measures of preventive maintenance administrative deliktnosti. Problems viktimnosti in administrative deliktologii
  4. Preventive maintenance administrative deliktnosti in system of the is social-legal control
  5. 4.1 Theoretical aspects of formation and development sotsialnopravovogo the control administrative deliktnosti
  6. THE IS SOCIAL-LEGAL CONTROL AND PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE ADMINISTRATIVE DELIKTNOSTI
  7. 1.2. Generalisation and the analysis of practice of processing molibdenovyh ores
  8. 3.4. Methodical approaches to the analysis of interrelations of indicators of stability and the latent effects with application of economic-mathematical methods
  9. 3.1 Experimental research of a method of an estimation of a condition of the latent mastitis of cows on the basis of a clustering of data from sensing transducers
  10. administrative jurisdiction Bodies as subjects of administratively-deliktologicheskih researches. Conceptual problems of an is administrative-legal policy.
  11. methodology and the theory of military-psychological researches: the essence and the maintenance
  12. 2.1. METHODOLOGY OF RESEARCHES AND CRITERIA OF CHOICE TEHNOLOGIJALTERNATIVNOJ OF POWER