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the Conclusion

Dissertational research was conducted within the limits of the market of PVC-WINDOWS (plastic windows). Plastic windows carry to so-called to "modern windows» with double-glazed windows. Use of double-glazed windows allow to improve technical (including warmly and sound-proof) window characteristics.
For example, at use of typical wooden windows from 40 % to 80 % of heat from a premise it is lost through window apertures. Use of PVC-WINDOWS allows to lower considerably teplopoteri. It is necessary to notice, that by estimations of experts in the Russian Federation more than 85 % of cost of the housing-and-municipal services represented the population and budgetary sphere, are expressly or by implication connected with financing warmly - elektro - gazo - water supply, and also operating repair of engineering networks of buildings and their constructive elements with the purposes of heat-shielding increase (repairs of roofs, interpanel seams, source doors, window designs, etc.) . In sphere of housing-and-municipal services 40-60 % of municipal budgets are spent approximately. For heating of buildings in Russia it is spent about 34 % of thermal energy made in the country whereas in the western countries this share makes 20-22 %. By estimations of experts in Russia the cost of fuel for heating 1 sq. m of a floor space in 3-4 times above, than in more developed countries. Thus, it is possible to notice, that development of the market of PVC-WINDOWS indirectly promotes the problem decision energosberezhenija.
Development of the market of PVC-WINDOWS in our country occurs very dynamically. By estimations of experts, for the past of 10 years this market in the Russian Federation has passed a way of development to such level which achievement in Europe needed 50 years. From end users it is possible to explain demand for plastic windows following reasons:
Relative cheapness (in comparison with wooden "eurowindows" or warm aluminium windows);
Durability (in comparison with usual wooden windows);
• high field performances (in comparison with usual wooden windows).
The market capacity of PVC-WINDOWS in our country, following the results of 2005, has grown approximately on 21 % in comparison with 2004. According to published researches, growth of the world market of PVC-WINDOWS for the similar period is evaluated in 7 %. In Europe development of the market of PVC of a window occurs mostly for the account of reconstruction and growth rates make about 4 %. For comparison it is possible to indicate, that average that of a gain of volumes of building in the Russian Federation makes 7 %. Thus, the market of PVC-WINDOWS in the Russian Federation is rather fast-growing. It is possible to tell, that development of the market of PVC - of windows in any region Russian Federation promotes social and economic growth of the given region.
Subject of dissertational research are methods of forecasting of marketing processes on any commercial undertaking. The forecast of sales is the likelihood, reasonable judgement about a possible break-even sales level and (or) the likelihood, reasonable judgement about alternative ways and terms of achievement of a required break-even sales level, in natural and the cost indexes, based on studying of a condition of the market and enterprise possibilities. The concept of the forecast differs from concept of the plan.
Distinctions between them are caused, first, by that forecasting has the alternative contents, in and the plan is the unequivocal decision even if it was originally developed on an alternative basis. Secondly, forecasting exists irrespective of planning though can be a planning component. There are processes which not always give in to planning, but are objects of forecasting (for example, demand of the population). Also concepts the forecast and the plan differ on the purposes. Planning is directed on acceptance and practical realisation of administrative decisions. The forecasting purpose is search and a substantiation of scientific preconditions for acceptance of plans.
As a result of the conducted analysis following conclusions concerning process of forecasting of sales at the enterprise have been drawn.
• forecasting of sales volumes is one of the major components of definition of effective development of the enterprise in the future;
About the forecast of sales influences enterprise activity, both on strategic, and at operative level;
About on the basis of the forecast of sales, including, strategy is corrected or formed, the forecast of sales affects decision-making on purchasing, industrial and marketing politicians;
Questions of forecasting of sales volumes in the economic literature are mentioned in the generalised foreshortening, in the majority of references it is noticed, that in each concrete situation those or other methods of forecasting, without the technique offer vzaimouvjazki the forecast and prognoznogo a background are used;
In the economic literature at the description of questions of forecasting, methods of expert judgements and methods on the basis of the analysis of time numbers more often are shined. Frequent use of the analysis of time numbers in values of engineering most likely is caused by that economic processes have some inertsionnostju, i.e. the tendency which has scheduled in the past, will be in most cases prolonged in the future.
There is no criterion of a choice of the most realistic alternative forecast at invariant forecasting.
Consideration of questions of forecasting of sales has been considered from items of logistics which can be defined as «. Process of planning, fulfilment of plans and the control for effective, economical, from the point of view of expenses, storage and moving of raw materials, industrial stocks, finished goods and concerning transferred the information since the moment
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Productions till the moment of consumption for the purpose of improvement of service of clientele ». This definition, is given by Advice on logistical management of the USA.
In logistics following principles which are necessary for observing for realisation of integrity of the logistical approach are allocated:
Realisation of a principle of the system approach;
The account of logistical costs throughout all logistical chain;
Humanisation of technological processes, creation of modern working conditions;
Development of services of service at modern level;
Ability of logistical systems to adaptation in the conditions of uncertainty of environment.
As logistical activity is carried out within the limits of logistical system according to property of system (property of communication) activity in system elements also should correspond to logistics principles, in that measure, on how many it is probably functional activity. In other words, since on functioning of logistical system each of its elements affects, and each of elements also can be presented as system non-observance of principles of logistics in one of elements (a subsystem of logistical system) will lead to infringement of functioning of all logistical system. Therefore it is possible to tell, that any potokovyj the process which is carried out within the limits of logistical system (in this case forecasting) should base on main principles of logistics. It is possible to notice, that the logistical principle "cost accounting" is directly combined with such principle of construction of the forecast as a "profitability" principle.
Consideration of the logistical approach to forecasting from items of the cybernetic approach at which the system is considered as
Rather isolated in the information relation and absolutely nontight in the is material-power relation, is optimum. Also at drawing up of the forecast from system items are decided a part of questions connected with absence or shortage of the information on change of indicators influencing considered logistical system.
Within the limits of logistical activity the general works unite in groups which make functional area of logistics. Allocate some functional areas of logistics: purchasing, industrial, distributive, transport and information.
Activity on forecasting of sales can be carried in sphere of information logistics. The information logistics bases on the system approach which covers all kinds of activity connected with planning and management by processes, directed on maintenance with the necessary information. It is possible to tell, that forecasting of sales is a component of an information stream.
As a logistics main purpose in aspect of information streams is management rationalisation by these streams in all logistical system with reference to forecasting sphere it will be sold by the purpose of information logistics to be reception of the most exact alternative forecast in the shortest terms.
The carried out dissertational research has allowed to carry out working out of a technique of forecasting of sales volumes by the enterprises in the conditions of the market that is the decision of the actual scientific problem having great value for increase of efficiency of activity of the enterprises.
As a result of research of theoretical approaches to forecasting approaches to forecasting are systematised, preconditions on which the offered technique of drawing up of forecasts of sales is based on the enterprise are defined.
In the dissertation the technique combination of the analysis of an environment and activity of the enterprise for forecasting is offered. The offered mechanism of regulation of forecasting can be carried to search methods of forecasting, namely to a method prognoznoj extrapolations at which the choice of approximating function of dynamics of sales volumes is carried out with allowance for conditions and restrictions of development of logistical system as object of forecasting. In this case it is offered to optimise forecasting of sales volumes of the enterprise by joint updating of variants of the forecasts received on the basis of the analysis of sales volumes of firm and with allowance for of restriction imposed tendentsiej.razvitija of a market capacity as a whole. It is offered to accent the external analysis for forecasting of sales volumes for definition of dynamics of a market capacity, then to carry out updating prognoznoj dynamics of development of the enterprise on the received size. Such approach allows to combine two vzaimokorrektirujushchih tendencies.
The substantiation of working capacity of offered model leans against character of relations between a supply and demand, that is on an axiom of an equilibration of the offer demand. This parity proves both on makro level, and on mikro level. On mikro level demand renders two variants of possible effect on an enterprise sales volume:
Serves as stimulus for the further increase in sales volumes;
Serves as restriction of the further increase in sales volumes.
In this case at forecasting of sales volumes of the enterprise the mechanism of integration of forecasts of development of the enterprise and forecasts of development of the market, for achievement of the most exact result acts.
Also in work the approach for definition of the most real alternative forecast, according to the approach of "the theory of games» is offered, reasonable and approved.
That is the parity of the combined alternative forecast of sales of PVC-WINDOWS can be described the following formula:
У=Х1 + (Х2-Х2) *С
Where, At - the most real alternative forecast (м2)
XI - a pessimistic variant (м2)
Х2 - An optimistic variant ()
With - combination factor prognoznyh variants
This parity within the limits of the theory of games will be expression of strategy of the enterprise.
Use of the given approach at a choice of the optimal variant allows obosnovanno to make a choice, leaning on given in last period.
For the decision of problems of forecasting the analysis of the market of PVC-WINDOWS across the Russian Federation and on Samara in which result dynamics of a market capacity is defined is carried out, tendencies are defined. On the market of Samara the analysis according to the concept of life cycle of the goods is carried out. Indicators of socially - economic development of the region, information published in open sources which reflect changes obshcherynochnogo demand na'rynke corporate clients of PVC-WINDOWS are defined. The received result can be used at account of the forecast of sales by the offered technique for the enterprises of the market of PVC-WINDOWS.
In work necessity is reasonable, at forecasting of sales volumes in the market of PVC-WINDOWS, separate consideration of the market of end users and corporate customers.
Research was conducted according to Open Company company «Samara Window Designs». Open Company company «Samara Window Designs» is created in July, 1999. Represents vertically integrated holding consisting of production of raw materials for manufacturing of windows from PVC, production of PVC-WINDOWS and their sales as to end users, and resellers. The company is one of
The largest in the Russian Federation on production of PVC-WINDOWS. Capacity of production makes now more than 40 tyskv.m. Window designs in a month. The basic geography of sales is privolzhsky federal district. At the enterprise 2000 persons work nearby. Research was conducted leaning on given to a marketing network on Samara. The forecast of sales for 2005 in a sales cut in the market of end users and in the market of corporate customers has been as a result made
/for account of efficiency of an offered technique of forecasting the received result was compared to the fact and with the official plan.
By results of 2005 the forecast on retail, also as well as on "korporativu" has an error approximately in-1 %. The official plan for the similar period carries an error approximately in 11 % on the market of end users and approximately in 14 % on the market of corporate consumers.
Thus, the forecast constructed on offered techniques for 2005 has appeared more precisely, than the plan for 5610790 rbl. on "retail" and for 9177277 rbl. on "korporativu".
In addition by results of the analysis external in relation to the enterprise of environment (in considered aspect - prognoznogo a background) following administrative decisions in the end of 2004 have been made:
Marketing strategy in the market of end users on Samara is corrected;
The marketing network geography on Samara is changed;
The system of motivation of employees of the enterprise of corporate clients working in the market in Samara is changed;
Number of department working on the market of corporate clients in Samara is increased;
Production range is expanded.
As the offered technique has been used for construction of the search forecast by the received variants it is possible to consider it effective.
As a result it is possible to notice, that a technique of forecasting of the sales volumes, offered in work, it urged to describe the mechanism of the system approach to forecasting of sales volumes of the enterprise that promotes increase of accuracy of the forecast and as consequence reduces risks caused by reduction of uncertainty of the future in development. Conclusions containing in work and the recommendation have been realised at at Open Company enterprise «Samara Window Designs».
The offered technique of forecasting of sales volumes can be used for any other enterprise and not only in the market of PVC - of windows, but also in other branches.
Also it is necessary otmstit availability of an offered technique: for its application it is necessary to know the tendency and level obshcherynochnogo demand (and such data are available in most cases in departments of marketing for the enterprises) and data about own sales volumes.
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A source: KARPOV IVAN ALEKSEEVICH. LOGISTICAL MAINTENANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF MARKETING PROCESSES AT THE ENTERPRISES (ON THE EXAMPLE OF MARKET OKONIZ OF POLYVINYLCHLORIDE). 2006

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