1.3. The methodical tool of the analysis of logistical maintenance of development of marketing processes at the enterprise

Within the limits of logistical maintenance of development of sales at the enterprise sales forecasting is one of key components of administrative activity. As forecasting understand process of construction of the forecast.
«The forecast is the likelihood scientifically reasonable judgement about prospects of a possible condition of this or that phenomenon in
The future and (or) about alternative ways and terms of their realisation ». The given formulation has been accepted as unified by committee of scientific and technical terminology of academy of sciences of the USSR within the limits of creation of the dictionary of terms of forecasting which formed for introduction of the standardised terms in all sources of the information on forecasting. Therefore in a significant part of the domestic literature on forecasting it is possible to meet this definition. Within the limits of an investigated problematics definition which is given in the economic dictionary will be more exact:« the sales Forecast is a forecast of an expected sales volume in natural and the cost indexes, based on studying of a condition of the market and enterprise possibilities ». At combination of the presented definitions it is received following definition of the forecast of sales:
The sales forecast is the likelihood, reasonable judgement about possible level of sales and (or) the likelihood, reasonable judgement about alternative ways and terms of achievement of required level of sales, in natural and the cost indexes, based on studying of a condition of the market and enterprise possibilities.
It is obvious, that in the given definition of the forecast of sales, as well as in forecast definition two formulations concerning search and standard kinds of the forecast are combined. The essence of the given kinds of forecasting is opened more low.
The basic part of works on technology of construction of forecasts is necessary for 60-70 years of 20th century. This period usually name «boom of forecasts». Mostly for this period existing methods of forecasting have been developed and generalised. Now on some
prognostika. Terminology. Issue 92. The collection of recommended terms (in Russian, English, German and French languages. Definition of terms in Russian). Committee of scientific and technical terminology of Academy of sciences of the USSR. M.Nauka 1978г. With 7
To data 150-200 methods of forecasting though in practice use no more than 2016 are.
It is obviously possible to the author is integrated to present existing sources on forecasting:
1. Specialising on forecasting (for example, Bestuzhev-harmony И.В.17 Motyshina M. С.18, Basovsky Л.Е.19, Mazmanova B.G. 20 Glushenko Century of Century 21)
2. Mentioning forecasting as addition to the basic exposition. Since importance of forecasting is obvious, the given category is the most numerous. Here it is possible to carry for example, Pigeons Е.П.22, SQUARE Bagiev 23, Meskon M. 24, Semenenko A.I., Sergeys of Century И.25, Gadzhinsky A.M. 26, Malkolm Мак-Дональд27 and others.
16 Motyshina M. S. Methods of social and economic forecasting: the Manual. - SPb.: Publishing house SPBUEF, 1994 with
17 Bestuzhev-harmony I.V.social forecasting. A course of lectures. - M: Pedagogical company of Russia, 2002,392 with
11 Motyshina M. S. Methods of social and economic forecasting: the Manual. - SPb.: Publishing house SPBUEF, 1994 with
19 Basovsky L.E.forecasting and planning in the conditions of the market: Ucheb.posobie, • M: INFRA TH, 2003.-260 with.
20 Mazmanova B.G.methodical questions of forecasting of sales, Marketing in Russia and zarubezhom, №1, 2000,
21 Glushchenko V.V. Prognozirovanie. - M: Vuz.kn., 2000. - 204 with
E.P.use's 22 Pigeons of a system analysis in acceptance of planned decisions. M: Economy 1982. • 160 with.
23 Bagiev GL., Tarasevich V. M, Annas X. MarketinpUchebnik for high schools. - M.:Изд-во "Economy", 1999 - 703 with.
24 Meskon Michael, Albert Michael, Hedouri Franklin Bases of management Publishing house: Business, 2005., 720 with
25 Semenenko A.I., Sergeev V. I. Logistics. Theory bases: the Textbook for high schools. SPb.: publishing house "Union", 2001.544 with.
26 Gadzhinsky A.M. Logistics: the Textbook for the maximum and average special educational zavedenij.-2 izd. — M: information-Vnedrenchesky centre "Marketing", 1999. — 228 with.
27 Malkolm the Poppy-donald. Strategicheskos marketing planning - SPb: Peter, 2000.-320s.
28 Dubrovins T.A. Statistical methods of forecasting: Studies. The allowance for high schools. - M.:ЮНИТИ-ДАНА, 2003 with.
29 Kurdyumov With, Malinitsky G, Medvedev ИЛІелинейная dynamics and forecast problems, the Journal "Bezopastnost Eurasia", №2 - 2001. С481-517
30 Blohin A.A. "Time in economy/dews. AN, Int narodohoz. Forecasting. - M: the Science, 1993 - 125 with.
31 Afanasev B.H., JUzbashev M.M.Analiz of time numbers and forecasting: (ucheb.dlja high schools on a speciality of "Statistican").-М.: the Finance and statistics. 2001 - 226 with.
3. Accented on statistical methods of forecasting (for example, Dubrovin Т.А.28, Kurdyumov With, Malinitsky G, Medvedev И.29, Blohin A. A.30, Afanasev V. N, JUzbashev M. of M. 31)
The economic publications, concerning forecasting questions it is possible to divide conditionally on considering prognoznoe development of a national economy, area, branch and considering questions of forecasting with reference to subjects of the market (any concrete enterprises). Publications concerning questions of forecasting of development of a national economy, area, branch are detailed with an exposition of used techniques. Publications concerning forecasting by subjects of the market are offered without techniques of comparison of development of branch, region and the concrete subject of the market. And when consideration concerns any concrete enterprises a mention of forecasting is used as addition to the basic exposition. Thus forecasting questions are considered as addition to the description planning business on which the exposition concentrates more often. However it is necessary to distinguish concepts the plan and the forecast. « The directive decision concerning actions for achievement possible, zhelatelnogo. - is the plan »32. That the plan realistic should precede it scientifically reasonable forecast. Therefore it is possible to notice, that forecasting questions are primary and the description of existing techniques in application in the economic environment deserve bolshego attention.
32 Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. «Social forecasting», 2001
In general distinctions between the forecast and the plan are caused, first, by that forecasting on the being has the alternative contents while the plan represents the unequivocal decision even if it is developed on an alternative basis. Secondly, forecasting exists irrespective of planning though can be a planning component. There are processes which it is perfect, or not always give in to planning, but are objects of forecasting (for example, demand of the population, etc.). Also these concepts differ on the purposes. Planning is directed on acceptance and practical realisation
Administrative decisions. The forecasting purpose - to justify scientific preconditions for their acceptance.
According to the author, the forecasting problematics consists in necessity of creation, generalisation of approaches and methods to forecasting from the point of view of lines of business of the enterprises, vzaimouvjazki approaches, techniques of consideration of the market (in this case prognoznogo a background) and used techniques of forecasting of sales volumes of the concrete subject of the market on a basis faktograficheskoj information.
The forecasting subject can be defined as the information on object of forecasting. The made definition of a subject of forecasting has been formulated proceeding from following definitions:
Object of research are fixed in experience and included in process of practical activities of the person of the party, property and the relation in the object, investigated with a definite purpose in the given conditions and circumstances,
Or the object of research is that is learnt in object of surveys.
On the basis of the analysis of references the following generalised classification of forecasts has been made: • On forecasting types:
About the Search forecast - definition of possible conditions of the phenomenon in the future. Such forecast answers a question: what most likely will occur under condition of preservation of current trends? About the standard forecast - definition of ways and the terms of achievement of possible conditions of the phenomenon accepted as the purpose. Such forecast answers a question: what ways to reach the wished?
Each type of forecasting can be divided into some subtypes: about the Target forecast. The main task is assistance of optimisation of process tselepolaganija. In this case occurs
Construction of estimated function of distribution
Preference: it is undesirable - it is less desirable - more
It is desirable - it is most desirable - optimum (at the compromise
By several criteria), about the Planned forecast. Such forecast is necessary for definition
Directions of orientation of planning, for most
Effective achievement of objects in view about the Program forecast it is necessary for definition of the possible
Ways, measures and conditions of achievement of the prospective desirable
Conditions of the predicted phenomenon, i.e. within the limits of the given forecast
Hypothetical terms and sequence of achievement are indicated
The intermediate purposes on a way to main, about the Design forecast. Promotes selection of optimum alternatives
Perspective designing on which basis should
To be developed then real, current designing, about the Organizational question of current administrative decisions,
It urged to define directions for orientation of decisions on
To achievement of the purposes. • on time coverage (to the anticipation period, a forecasting time):
About operative (flowing)
About the short-term
About intermediate term
About the long-term
About dalnesrochnye
Thus operative forecasts contain, as a rule, in details - quantitative estimations, short-term - the general quantitative, intermediate term - quantitatively-qualitative, long-term - qualitatively - quantitative and dalnesrochnye - the general quality standards. Time intervals of forecasts depend on character and the forecasting purpose.
For example, the long-term geological forecast can cover one million years. In social and economic forecasts usually the periods are divided as follows: operative - within a month, short-term - within a year, intermediate term - no more than 5 years, long-term - from 5 till 15 years, dalnesrochnye - twenty and more years.
• On degree of probability of the future events:
About alternative, assuming availability of several variants
Forecasting; about invariant, assuming one variant prognoznogo
Event developments;
• On a method of submission of results of the forecast:
About dot, assuming granting of one significance
prognoznogo the factor; about interval, assuming range granting
Significances of a predicted indicator.
• On forecasting methods
About Faktografichesky (formalized, economic - mathematical) ¦ Statistical
• prognoznaja extrapolation
Simple - based on the assumption of a constancy of the future absolute significances, the average equations, etc.
Difficult - it is based on trend revealing
• Analytical (growth curves)
¦ Adaptive - updating occurs at receipt of the new information
• Regressionnye models
• Production functions
¦ Curve development
• Logistichekie curves
• Ekonometrichesky models
«Methods of logic modelling (forecasting methods on analogies, methods of construction of the scenario, a tree of the purposes and a tree of decisions, interaction matrixes etc.)
Methods of stochastic modelling (imitating modelling and forecasting on the basis of Markovsky processes)
Methods of structural modelling (balance and optimising methods)
¦ Methods of the analysis of publications (publikatsionnye, advancing). Here carry the analysis of dynamics of publications, the analysis of dynamics of patenting, tsitatnoindeksnyj a method.
About Expert (intuitive, heuristic)
¦ Individual (an interview method, a method psiho - intelektualnoj generation of ideas, a method of an individual expert judgement etc.)
«Collective (a method of a collective expert judgement, a method of commissions of experts, a matrix method of forecasting, method Delfi, a method of collective generation of ideas, a brainstorming method etc.) By the nature of object of forecasting: about scientific and technical, about estestvovedcheskie, about social and economic, about the military-political. On scale of objects of forecasting
About Sublocal (with number of meaning variables from 1 to 3)
About Local (from 4 to 14 variables) about Global (from 16 to 100) about Superglobal (more than 100 variables) On complexity of object of forecasting
About Superdifficult - objects in which description it is necessary
To consider interrelations between all variables about Difficult - objects, for which adequate description
It is necessary to consider interrelations and joint influence
Several variables about Simple - objects in which contents to contain steam rooms
About Supersimple - objects with absence essential
Interrelations between variables On determinancy degree
About Determined - the objects, which description can be
It is presented in the determined kind with satisfactory
About Stochastic - objects in which description it is necessary to consider a casual component according to required accuracy
About Mixed - objects with characteristics as
Determined, and stochastic character On character of development in time
About Discrete - objects, a regular component which
(Trend) is changed by jumps, during the fixed moments of time about Periodic - objects, a regular component which
aperiodicheskoj, continuous function in time about Cyclic - the objects having a regular component in
Kind of periodic function of time On character of the information
About Simple (at forecast construction the homogeneous information is used)
About Complex (at forecast construction the information and expert judgements is used as faktograficheskaja) • On degree of information security
About With an all found of the quantitative information about With partial maintenance with the quantitative information about With availability the qualitative retrospective information about With complete absence of the retrospective information of the deepest keeping classification is the group of classifications by forecasting methods. The method, in a translation from Greek is a method of knowledge, research of natural phenomena and a public life. It is integrated forecasting methods it is possible to divide on expert and faktograficheskie.
Heuristic (expert) methods are based on the assumption, that the approaches used at formation of the forecast, are not stated in the obvious form and are not separable on behalf of doing the forecast.
Faktografichesky (economic-mathematical) methods are based on accurately formulated approaches and can be reproduced other persons. Faktografichesky methods are considered more reasonable.
In the economic literature methods of expert judgements and methods on the basis of the analysis of time numbers use the greatest popularity. Frequent use of the analysis of time numbers in values of engineering most likely is caused by that economic processes have some inertsionnostju. I.e. the tendency scheduled in the past in most cases will be prolonged in the future. The analysis of time numbers is enough extensive group in statistical methods. The choice of a method of the analysis depends on readiness of the expert in the field of forecasting. For example, the method of the integrated sliding average gives good prognoznye estimations, but is not applicable without the special
Skills. Possibly thereof rather simple technique widely put into practice has been produced. Its description, for example, at authors Schmidt R, Right X.33 is given with reference to Excel environment. The similar description of process of forecasting in personal computer "Statistica" is given Vukolovym Э.А.34 the Description of a similar technique most often meets on the Internet shown at the decision of practical problems (for example, Bushueva Л.И35., Koshechkin С.А.36, Bondarenko А.В37., Zemskov ST. and, ZHigiryov Н.Н.38).
The insignificant part from a theory of time series is more low resulted, references on which are available further in dissertational work.
A time number can be presented in the form of additive or multiplicate model. The additive model is described by the equation 1.
Ft=Tt+St+Et (1)
Where, F, - predicted significance at the moment of time t (sq.m.), Tt - significance of a trend at the moment of time t (sq.m.), St - a seasonal component for time moment t (sq.m.), Et - a casual component for time moment t (sq.m.).
The multiplicate model is described by the equation 2.
F=Tt*S, *E, (2)
Where, F, - predicted significance at the moment of time t (sq.m.),
Tt - significance of a trend at the moment of time t (sq.m.),
St - a seasonal component for time moment t,
33 Schmidt RA, Rajd X. Financial aspects маркетинга:Учеб.пособиедля high schools/lanes with angl, - M.: JUNITI - it is given, 2000.
34 Vukolov E.A.bas of the statistical analysis. A practical work on statistical methods and research of operations with use of packages STAT1STICA and EXCEL: Educational sobie. th.: the FORUM: INFRA TH, 2004.
35 Methods of forecasting of sales volumes hnp.7/w\vw.dis.ru/market/arhiv/2002/1/4.html
36 Algorithm of forecasting of a sales volume in MS Excel http://management.com.ua/flnance/fin059.html
Completion of algorithm of forecasting of a sales volume in MS Excel http:Mnanagcment. Mm.ua/finance/fm069.html
Algorithm of forecasting of sales volumes http://molod.mephi.ru/Data/481.htm
E, - a casual component for time moment t. Dimension of sizes is indicated within the limits of a considered problematics, in the market of PVC-WINDOWS in square metres.
Graphically for additive model the Constant-gjuzhyozhchine seasonal component, and for multiplicate - changed amplitude of seasonal fluctuations is characteristic. In this case allocate following basic components of a time number:
Trend. Shows the general type of changes in historical data. As a trend understand natural, not casual (usually monotonous), a component of a time number. Usually assume, that the trend is some function of a simple kind (linear, square-law, etc.), describing «behaviour as a whole» a number or process. If allocation of such trend simplifies research the assumption of the chosen form of a trend is considered admissible.
Seasonal component. These are fluctuations round a trend which arise on a regular basis. Usually such regular fluctuations arise during the periods till one year. Seasonal fluctuations - most a vivid example of availability of recurrence in economic dynamics. The reasons generating cycles, can be sahmymi different, but in any case they can be divided on compelling and own (by analogy to the theory of fluctuations). Compelling factors are obvious are an influence of purely seasonal phenomena on economic indicators. Own factors of occurrence of cycles are connected with internal dynamics of system and do not depend on a season obviously though their influence can coincide with the calendar periods.
Cyclic fluctuations. These fluctuations arise during the periods over one year. They often are present at financial data according to the standard business cycle consisting of sharp recession, growth, rapid growth and stagnation.
Change fluctuations. These are unpredictable change fluctuations, at real time numbers existing in the majority. The analysis of such fluctuations can be used for calculation of probable errors and an estimation of reliability of the applied model of forecasting.
All methods of forecasting using the device of mathematical statistics, require of basic data that they were comparable, representative enough for law display, are homogeneous and stable.
Comparability is reached as a result of the identical approach to supervision at different stages of formation of a time number. Levels in time numbers should be expressed in the same units of measure, have an identical step of supervision, settle up for the same interval of time, by the same technique, cover the same elements belonging to one territory, concerning invariable set. Incomparability is shown in cost indexes more often. Even when significances of these indicators are fixed in real terms, them often happens difficultly to compare. Such incomparability of time numbers cannot be eliminated purely formal methods, and it only consider at substantial interpretation of results of the statistical analysis.
Imposing appearance of data is characterised, first of all, by their completeness. The sufficient number of supervision is defined depending on the purpose of carried out research. It is considered, that if the purpose is the descriptive statistical analysis as a studied interval vrehmeni it is possible to choose any, at own discretion. If a research objective - construction of model of forecasting the number of levels of an initial time number should not less, than three times to exceed the period of drawing up of the forecast.
Uniformity, i.e. absence of atypical, abnormal supervision, and also breaks of tendencies, - the third request to an initial time number. Anomaly leads to displacement of estimations and, hence, to distortion of results of the analysis. Formally it is shown as strong jump (recession) with the subsequent approximate restoration of the previous level.
Stability - the fourth request presented to an initial time number. Property of stability of a time number reflects prevalence of law over contingency in change of levels of a number. On schedules of stable time numbers even law is visually traced, and on schedules of unstable numbers of change of consecutive levels are represented chaotic and consequently search of laws in formation of significances of levels of such numbers is deprived sense.
By forecast working out it is necessary to consider some principles. The given principles partially adapted under principles of construction of logistical system are presented more low:
The principle sistemnosti forecasting - in this case is meant necessity of coherence and sopodchinyoshjusti forecasts of object of forecasting and set external in relation to considered logistical system of the conditions essential to drawing up of the forecast;
The coordination principle - in this case is required a coordination of standard and search forecasts of various aspects;
The principle of alternativeness of forecasting - at drawing up of forecasts is required working out of variants of the further development of system, proceeding from variants of development of external influencing factors (prognosticheskogo a background);
The principle of a continuity of forecasting-According to the given principle updating of the made forecast is required in process of receipt of new data influencing development of logistical system, or receipt of the updated data used at drawing up of the forecast;
The principle verifitsirovannosti forecasting-under verification is understood a reliability and accuracy estimation or validity of the forecast;
The profitability principle is a principle requiring excess of economic benefit of forecast use over expenses for its working out.
The list of the above-stated principles the author of dissertational work is offered to expand and add an optimisation principle. In this case at forecast drawing up the optimal approach to forecasting should be generated. As it is possible to understand achievement of any extremum, i.e. the best variant as an optimality from among possible the optimality principle will mean achievement of the maximum economic benefit of use of the forecast created by means of a technique yielding most exact result, the initial information chosen in the conditions of the existing volume and within the limits of the time term which has been taken away on drawing up прогноза* the Given principle has generalising character and it should be considered from initial stages of drawing up of the forecast.
On the basis of the aforesaid in chapter 1 following conclusions have been drawn:
Logistical support of development of the enterprise finds the display in all divisions of the enterprise, through executed logistical functions;
Within the limits of coordination function of logistics forecasting of sales volumes is one of the major components of logistical support;
Questions of forecasting of sales volumes in the economic literature are mostly mentioned in the generalised foreshortening;
There is no technique of the description of interrelation of the forecast and prognoznogo a background;
• there is no criterion of a choice of the most realistic alternative forecast at alternative forecasting.
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