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1.3 Basic tendencies on regional rynkahsotovoj communications of Russia.


The last some years the mobile communication branch showed extremely high rates of growth. The real sizes of client base have surpassed predicted indicators several times.
The market in the next has given a surprise.
Even in the Moscow licence zone where the majority of experts predicted relative saturation of the market to a close of the year, the increase monthly was still observed at-growth user's base in absolute and in comparative figures.
Frequently in regions at once some operators enter the market, supplying approximately identical cover, a powerful address advertising campaign and rather attractive tariffs. Considering that fact, that security level traditional stationary phones in regions much more low, than in Moscow and St.-Petersburg, cellular communication causes additional interest. Quite naturally, that the potential of many regional markets in these conditions has more fast, than in the metropolitan market. Predicted increase of demand for mobile communication services is caused, including growth of solvency of the population.
The highest growth rates for the last 2005 year has demonstrated Far East licence macroregion - growth of user's base here has reached 185 % (on the end of November, 2005 the volume of user's bases of operators in regions made about 7,4 million). On the second place - Urals Mountains from 155 %. In the Volga region, Siberia and in the North Caucasus the quantity of users of cellular communication has increased by 139, 132 and 123 % accordingly. Growth of user's base in the Central and Northwest macroregions has made 76 and 80 % with-otvetstveno [118].
The unconditional leader in this market «the big three» still is considered the operators of federal level having the licences in all territory all or nearly so of the Russian Federation is «Mobile Telesystems» (MTS), "Vympelcom" («BiLajn GSM»), "Megaphone". retonalnymi players companies "Uralsvyazinform", "SMART", "VolgaTelekom" are large, "Sibirtelekom", etc. Almost all operators render cellular communication services in regions through the affiliated companies. An exception — the "Uralsvyazinform" serving the large part of subscribers sa-mostojatelno.
Major factors of growth of a steel of the investment into branch which have allowed to realise a scale effect and to lower a passenger-fare level. The cumulative cover zone of operators has simultaneously considerably increased. The Russian cellular operators will continue as soon as possible development of the networks. Within 2006 "MTS", "Vympelcom" and "Megaphone" plan to enclose in development of networks not less than 4 bln. dollars Only "MTS" will enclose in development of new networks of 1,4 billion doll the USA. In 2006 the company will start to work in 5 Russian regions [117].
The potential volume of investments of "Vympelcom", by estimations of analysts, makes 1,7 bln. dollars At the same time it is known, that the company namerena actively to run in Far East region. On size the Russian cellular operator "Megaphone" will enclose the third in development of networks about 1,2 bln. dollars and also will conduct expansion to Siberia and in the Far East.
Proceeding from a parity of economically active population and quantity of users of cellular telephones, it is possible to assume, that the regional market has growth potential.
And in some cases the mobile communication began to be considered as real alternative local and vnutrizonovoj communications.
The additional factors stimulating development of the market, steel the competitiveness increase, the massed advertising campaigns, a variety of tariff plans. Last 2—3 years the tendency of sharp decrease in the passenger-fare level caused by the amplifying competitiveness is marked. Experts mark, what even when marketing shares of the several cellular companies coincided on time, each of them fixed substantial growth of number of connections. It confirms, that the market is accurately segmented between operators, therefore activity of one of them at all does not render defining influence on actions of competitors.
It is necessary to note also elasticity of the market and its potential - it well reacts to marketing shares. It is possible to carry that elasticity of demand basically is influenced by two parametres to prominent feature of a segment of a mobile communication: cost of connection and cost of minute of conversation. Now in the conditions of a rigid competitiveness the future subscriber chooses by a principle «how many it is necessary to spend means for connection to a network of the cellular operator, and in will manage how many use se». In this connection it is necessary to tell about strategy of companies "Vympelcom" and "MTS" which, "plant" rulers of tariffs, granting clients choice possibility between usual and more democratic tariffs. It is undertaken, first of all, to create a loyal client audience which in the long term can smoothly pass from low rates for the tariffs assuming more essential investments. However it is not necessary to forget thus, that quality of service of subscribers and a network cover zone also play the important role.
According to agency "Сотовик" for 2005, in an annual gain of user's bases in regional markets "Vympelcom" has got appreciable advantage before other players of "the big three»: on volume of a gain "MTS" has lagged behind "Vympelcom" on 1,9 million subscribers, "Megaphone" — on 6,2 million subscribers. Market "Vympelcom" share for a year has increased almost by 8 %, and it in conditions when the operator has rather limited presence at Far East licence region. Growth of a share of the market of the operator in the last quarter of year has made hardly less than 2 %.
"MTS" following the results of a year was lost nearby by 1 % of the regional market, in after a quarter the operator has had time to "win back" approximately 1,4 % of the market. Open Society "Megaphone" share in regions has increased for the past year almost by 1 %. For 2005 the share of the market of the operators who are not entering in «the big three», was reduced almost to 8 % (for the last quarter of year — about 1,6 %).
If to evaluate quality of work of operators at Rossvjaznadzora in 2005 there were no claims only to "Megaphone" (except for the Moscow region). "MTS", on the contrary, a smog supply a communication choice quality in Moscow, but it is far not in all regions Russian Federations. Not so stable federal communication and at «the Clod Pendant».
Cellular boom in regions in a heat — already in 65 subjects of Federation two and more operators GSM act. Remains ever less independent regional networks with quantity of subscribers over 100 thousand In 2005 as a whole consolidation of the Russian GSM-actives increase of controllability and economic efficiency of cellular business was which main purpose, including at the expense of realisation of a uniform policy in the field of purchases, marketing and advancement of services, mark was finished. So, for example, federal operators have absorbed practically all independent regional operators, except for the "daughters" entering into the inter-regional companies of holding of Open Society "Svyazinvest", and also operators of small networks with number of subscribers in some tens thousand. However and in the regional companies consolidation process goes at full speed.
For example, in Urals Mountains, in Siberia and the Volga region regional GSM - the operators supervised MRK, work successfully and, despite arrival to regions of MTS, "Pendant-clod" and "Megaphone", to give in in the market do not gather.
In the Volga region the operators which shares possess "VolgaTelekom" and «the Southern Telecommunication Company», serve today more 1млн 840 thousand subscribers and supervise about 19 % of the market. In Urals Mountains the presence share makes almost 50 %, and the quantity of served subscribers has reached 1,2 million persons. In territory of Siberian region to companies "Svyazinvest" belongs about 18 % of the market, the number of subscribers exceeds a half-million.
Development by mobile operators of the European part of Russia was almost finished. And looks of large market participants are directed now on
Urals Mountains, to Siberia and to the Far East. The last year was characterised by rigid struggle for subscribers between the operators working in these markets.
In Uralsk region of service of a mobile communication grant three federal and some local operators. Position local "Uralsvjaz-inform" in the market of mobile services, following the results of 2005, despite a rigid competitiveness, was stable. Now the company serves 50 % of the market of cellular communication. Despite this, significant aggravation of a competitiveness has occurred owing to increase in capacity of networks "MTS", "Vympelcom" and "Megaphone".
By agency AS&M estimations for 2005г., Open Society "Сибирьтелеком" is the sixth on size the operator of cellular communication in Russia and takes the third place in the Siberian federal district. 08M - "daughters" "Sibirtelekoma" ("Enisejtelekom", "Bajkalvestkom", "Sajantelekom", «STACK GSM», and also structural divisions in Khakassia and Buryatiya) could to resist really last year to leaders of the cellular market. Competitive advantages "Sibirtelekoma" is the availability at the majority of the affiliated companies, already developed network that gives to local operators odds in time, in maintenance of intranetwork roaming, possibility to carry out competent marketing to the policy and to introduce new additional services.
For expansion of networks federal operators should involve serious investments — it is necessary to obtain a licence on each region, to acquire enough considerable quantity of the equipment, to construct office etc. Advantages of federal operators are considerably bolshy volume of financial resources with which they can involve, and technical equipment.
"Expansion" by federal mobile operators zauralskih territories in 2005 has proceeded. In October same the group of companies "Vympelcom" declared that the number of subscribers «BiLajn GSM» in Urals Mountains has exceeded 1,5 million users. Commercial operation of a network in Urals Mountains has begun in December, 2003 with branch opening in Ekaterinburg. For today of service of a uniform network «BiLajn GSM» Hunts-Mansijskogo and Komi-Permjatskogo of autonomous regions are accessible to inhabitants of Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Tyumen, Kurgan, Perm, Kirov areas, the Udmurt republic. In territory of the Ural region it is established more than 300 base stations.
By the end of summer of 2005 the "Megaphone" cover zone has captured all European territory of Russia and Urals Mountains. During the same period active development of networks in Siberia and in the Far East has begun. In October, 2005 the number of subscribers of a network "Megaphone" in the Orenburg area has exceeded 200 thousand persons. The company has begun granting of services in the given territory since August, 2004 the Communication quality in the Orenburg area supply 60 base stations, from them 36 function in administrative borders of Orenburg. The user's base of a network "Megaphone" in Republic Bashkortostan by September, 2005 (in account for six months) has increased twice and has exceeded 1,2 million persons. The operator of a mobile communication has begun work in the given territory since March, 2002 To the beginning of 2005 of subscribers of "Megaphone" in Bashkiria half a year openly more than 170 agency items of connection and service of subscribers, as soon as possible their quantity uve-lichitsja to 300 was 870 thousand For the last. Today in Republic Bashkortostan it is offered to users of "Megaphone" about 150 types of service. In August start of service GPRS has taken place, and in September operation of service MMS has begun.
It is expected, that in 2006 the "Megaphone" share in the market of Far East licence region will continue to grow. Now the operator works far not in all regions attractive to it (for example while there are no cellular networks in Primorye Territory and Irkutsk area).
In company "Megaphone" plans - creation of the uniform telecommunication space coinciding with borders of the Russian Federation.
By the end of 2005 in Far East licence macroregion there was a following situation. About 70 % of subscribers have been concentrated all in three regions — Khabarovsk territory, Primorye Territory and Irkutsk area. In the local market regional operators worked some: «the New telephone company» (GSM) (user's base by the end of 2004-nearby 262 tys subscribers), AKOS (AMPS, GSM), «Sakhalin Telecom Mobajl» (AMPS, GSM) which destiny somewhat is not defined yet — they can become object of purchase, for example "Vympelcom". On a share of operators of "the big three» here it was necessary about 60 % of the market that is much less, than in other licence regions. Operators of "the big three» are at present presented far not in all regions.
In November "MTS" has sharply strengthened the presence at region at the expense of purchase of two local cellular operators. Besides, "MTS" became edinst-vennym the GSM-operator in the Chita area. Following the results of November the share "MTS" in Far East licence region has increased at once by 8 % that has even more strengthened its lead.
With an enter into a market of Far East licence region company "Vympelcom" which is presented in region on behalf of the operator «Daltelekom Interneshnl» (Khabarovsk territory, the Amur and Kamchatka areas) had the greatest problems. Exit possibilities in other regions (including on such attractive markets as Primorye Territory and Irkutsk area) at "Vympelcom" while are not present. For work in Primorski Krai the companies should be acquired NTK or AKOS, that is improbable. The "Vympelcom" exit on the market of Irkutsk area is impossible, as except "BajkalVe-stKoma" (Siberia-TV set) and "Primtelefona" (MTS) there works only Те1е2 which repeatedly declared the long-term plans.
In June, 2004 company "Vympelcom" has finished the bargain on acquisition approximately 93,5 % of shares of Open Society of company «the Distance Telecom Interneshnl» which possesses licences for granting of services of cellular communication in a number of areas of the Far East integrated region, last region where "Vympelcom" did not have a licence for rendering of services in standard GSM. «The distance a Telecom» is the operator of cellular communication with licences GSM-1800 and D-AMPS in three regions of the Far East (Khabarovsk territory, the Amur and Kamchatka areas) with the population about 2,7 million In these regions the cumulative share of the market «Telecom Distance» makes approximately 45 %. The user's base of the operator for June, 30th, 2004 totaled more than 322 thousand persons (including 268 thousand in standard GSM), that, by estimations of independent sources, makes approximately 20 % of the market of Far East region.
As a whole the regional market is not saturated yet. Process of its active development as local operators, and «the big three», and further, probably, and "four" (the new operator of a mobile communication of standard CDMA 2000 is formed - «Skye the Link»), will proceed at least the next two years.
Now networks «Skye the Link» work in the Center (Voronezh, Tver), in the Northwest (Kaliningrad, Murmansk), in the South (Krasnodar, Vladikavkaz), in the Volga region (Izhevsk, Saratov, Nizhni Novgorod), in Urals Mountains (Ekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk), in Siberia (Omsk, Novosibirsk) and in the Far East (Khabarovsk). The network «Skye the Link» CDMA-450 serves 50 thousand subscribers in St.-Petersburg and about 80 thousand — in Moscow. Total investments «Skye of the Link» into 2004 have exceeded 180 mln. dollars of the USA.
Certainly, association of the companies supplies favorable prospects for drawings and economy on scales, however except ten already received licences at holding over 40 regional companies which demand investments for transition in CDMA-450, and here business can not be limited to, of course, declared sums.
Under plans of the company, becomes «year of break» 2006, it is possible to expect occurrence of several tens new networks CDMA-450 in regions. And by 2008 «the Link» expects Skye to involve to 5 million subscribers. It is supposed, that at the expense of numerous highly technological services and bezlimitnyh tariffs the size of monthly payment (ARPU) subscribers «Skye of the Link» will be in 2,5 times above, than at mass subscribers of networks GSM [121].
Having analysed a situation in the market of cellular communication of Russia it is possible to draw following conclusions: many regional operators have advantages. They have started to work in this market long before an exit on it operators of federal scale, therefore have the developed infrastructure, a wide cover zone and a dealer network, the debugged mechanism of interaction with the state bodies, have resources of urban numbering. That operation of business is carried out in the same place where activity is conducted, allows to catch sensitively economic and marketing situations in the market and it is duly to make necessary administrative decisions, besides, gives the chance to study thoroughly the market, to make smaller segmentation and to find «the client», focusing on it tariff plans and a package of additional services.
However in long-term prospect the regional companies hardly can resist to the federal networks using a scale effect and a various sort a synergy. In intermediate term prospect there is a possibility nishevogo existence, and even a competitiveness in those regions where local and inter-regional operators had time to construct powerful enough networks. Probably, start of the uniform trade mark for the several cellular companies of communication acting on territories of one or several adjoining regions, skilful following to the politician of reduction of expenses for development and maintenance of working capacity of the network at simultaneous active expansion of territory of cover, introduction uniform roumingovogo spaces, concentration of efforts on narrow market segments etc. In certain degree will help to stabilise a situation.
The basic struggle in the cellular communication market will go between three ve-dushchimi operators. However at development of regions operators of "the big three» all the same should consider and local operators. In the near future they will compete with "regionalami" on a communication quality and sets of services, territory coverage, having thus more ample opportunities under the offer of new products and known trade marks. At a choice of the operator all these qualities are essential for the client.
There are also other factors influencing development of the market. A consumption level of telecommunication services enough closely related with the general internal demand. If intraregional economic mechanisms start to give "failures", to work not so the mobile communication will suffer one of the first. And now in some Russian regions still there are many preconditions for stagnation and change of economic indicators.
Consequence of strengthening of a competitiveness between cellular operators and growth of number of subscribers is necessity of constant expansion and modernisation of cellular networks, that, in turn, demands maintenance of a high level of investment expenses - one more potential risk factor for the companies with the limited possibilities of financial investments in main funds.
The decision of a problem of preservation of increase in incomes at the expense of expansion of client base all becomes more difficult. At the present stage developments of the market by a measure of success of mobile business are: maintenance of average returns from one subscriber (ARPU) on a high level and loyalty of subscribers already present at the company, instead of growth of sales at any cost and attraction of new clients. In this connection the urgency of revealing of new sources of the income in the mobile communication market increases.
Practically all operators have now started active introduction of not vocal services on the basis of modern technologies of data communications (GPRS, MMS, WAP, data communications in the standard of new generation EDGE), began to give bolshee attention to a communication quality and increase of throughput of a network, and also the functional contents of additional services represented by them. There is also a search of effective business models of advancement of new services that allows operators to save user's base and to supply its further increase. However thus the increase of tariffs caused by inflation and increase of investments into program and technological maintenance of under construction networks of cellular communication is not excluded.
The risks connected with a course change of currencies and interest rates under credits are essential also.
For today of the obvious leader in the Russian cellular branch is not present. Though if to speak about dynamism of development here companies «big three» save high enough rates of increase of user's bases in many regions of the country.
At the moment the companies already have approached to that line when price wars should cease. It is caused by purely economic reasons. The market is ready to grow today at a present price level. The price for minute of the vocal traffic is already enough low. Thus other economic parametres, for example, cost of base stations and other equipment, remain at former level. Regular decrease in tariffs gradually can lead to that this business can become simply unprofitable. Experience of other countries confirms it. In our opinion, today all basic players of the market understand, that such way is unpromising.
Though for today a demand of traditional vocal services high enough owing to their habitualness, however and demand for additional services continues to grow, and their set constantly extends.
For example, at the initial stage of granting of services on the basis of GPRS and WAP - technologies the majority of their users were inhabitants of Moscow and St.-Petersburg, but in due course the situation was changed, and already now almost 60 % of users of GPRS-services — regional subscribers. Thus their share in total amount of services of the cellular companies gradually uve-lichivaetsja.
Now the basic gain of subscribers goes any more in the regional centres of regions, and basically at the expense of districts, settlements of urban type and villages.
Certainly, in many respects it is caused by that in removed from the central areas of area cities level of security of the population a fixed-line telephony remains at rather low level. Work on increase of loyalty of the subscriber leaves now on qualitatively new level — preservation of user's base from redutsirovanija becomes not less important problem, than its gain which in the circumstances, probably to supply only improvement of quality of cover obsuzhivaemoj territories and increase in a set of additional services with which it is possible to take advantage by means of a cellular telephone.
Thus, today practically all companies - operators of cellular communication to some extent experience difficulties at formation of new prospects in the basic directions of the future development. Such state of affairs in the given branch in many respects is a consequence of low level of a level of scrutiny of methodical questions on working out and introduction of strategy of development of additional services of cellular communication, so promptly typing weight in total amount of the services represented by the companies of cellular communication.
This circumstance is the serious deterrent for successful functioning and development of these companies at the given stage, and also expansions of an existing set of additional services of the cellular communication represented the population of Russia.
This problem is especially actual at regional level, since. The cellular telephone for inhabitants of the remote areas, often is unique alternative possibility of access to resources of the Internet, operative transfer and reception of the necessary information and data. In turn for the companies - operators of cellular communication, the availability of a set of modern additional services the arsenal to become more and more significant argument at a choice its subscriber, and also one of the most perspective methods of increase in indicator AJARSHCHsrednego of the income of one subscriber).
T to. The tendency to its decrease practically at all operators of cellular communication of the Russian Federations acting on territories is now observed.
In the developed conditions the purpose of the present research is working out of approaches to formation and methods of introduction of a perspective technique of management of the market of services of cellular communication.
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A source: Nevenchannyj Alexander Aleksandrovich. MANAGEMENT of DEVELOPMENT of the MARKET of SERVICES of CELLULAR COMMUNICATION.. 2006

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