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Identification of crises in activity ofthe noncommercial organisations

In the Russian Federation formation of activity of the noncommercial organisations concerns the end of the eightieth years of the XX-th century and first of all is connected with economic and political reforms.

Now the policy spent to Russia sets as the purpose formation of a democratic society in which structure the third sector of economy which structure includes noncommercial subjects should develop. Their quantity is insignificant and constitutes no more than 15 percent from number of legal bodies, but during too time the noncommercial organisations influence on modernizatsionnye processes in Russia.

Modern lines of development of the world community, the societies directed on a humanisation, development of the human capital, improvement of quality of a life of the population, demand increase of efficiency of activity of the noncommercial organisations. For the Russian Federation these tendencies are most actual, as, despite presence rich mineralnosyrevoj ­ bases (gas, oil, minerals etc.) in our country till now very considerable share of inhabitants is in very heavy financial position.

the Noncommercial organisation is certain ­ sotsialnoekonomicheskoj system and during the certain moments of functioning faces crises which carry mikrourovnevyj the character which has received the name «enterprise crisis».

According to scientists, a category «enterprise crisis» opens various phenomena in activity of managing subjects, that is represents a set of the dynamic factors which display bears threat of existence of economic system.

Zimin N.E. notices, that «crisis is a combination of factors of the external and internal environment negatively operating on industrial-financial activity of the enterprises and leaders to reduction or the termination of its primary activity» 1 . From positions of shortage of money resources consider given the phenomena in organisations Ajvazjan Z and Kirichenko V: «enterprise crisis

- it is shortage of financial resources with a view of realisation of operational activity and maintenance with floating assets » [1] [2] [3] .

Crisis as the static phenomenon is considered in Kozenko J.A., Perekrestovoj L. V, Fedotovoj G. V's works which notice, that: «crisis

- the phenomenon of material breach of system of the developed public and industrial mutual relations, connected with loss available before resources as a result of change essential sistemoobrazujushchih factors and infringement before the stable

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characteristics »during too time, we consider, that crisis has a dynamical condition, is limited by time frameworks.

Thereupon it is expedient to use crisis definition given to Baryshnikovym K.V.: «organisation crisis - not planned and not desirable process limited on time which in a condition it is essential to prevent or even to make impossible functioning
the enterprises; inherently is a turning-point in sequence of processes of events and actions» [4] .

By consideration of the nature of crisis of the enterprise, in particular the noncommercial organisations it is necessary to give special attention to two major aspects influencing functioning of managing subjects: uncertainty of an environment both internal and external risks.

the Modern social and economic condition in which conditions the noncommercial organisations function are characterised by such phenomena as:

- absence of proportionality between external influence on the noncommercial organisation and its response to such influence, that is considerable influence of an environment is capable in a small amount to affect stability of system, and in turn small influence can provoke huge consequences for ­ sotsialnoekonomicheskogo enterprise positions;

- presence along with adverse, positive feedback which are capable to change position of the noncommercial organisation from time existing about a present situation (aperiodicheski takes place presence of the different nature of crises).

Critical condition NKO is characterised by scale of M and influence level on funktsional the organisations to.

Taking into account distinctions on the scale of crisis it is possible to define three conditions of the noncommercial organisation:

- NKO is in dokriticheskom a condition (k< kc);

- NKO is in a critical condition (k=kc);

- NKO is in a supercritical condition (k> kc);.

the Behaviour of the organisation within the limits of carried out kinds of activity will be various. If NKO is in dokriticheskom a condition bifurkatsii (a version of a critical situation) arise seldom and their sizes are insignificant. In practice by such situations it is possible to neglect. Consecutive strengthening of uncertainty and risk will increase level of crisis condition NKO. Dokritichesky level of functioning NKO will develop until there will come crisis.

In the conditions of crisis NKO the number bifurkatsy grows. If NKO will be is in a supercritical condition bifukratsii are shown more deeply in comparison with a critical condition. It reduces level of influence of uncertainty and risk. Such supercritical condition NKO will decrease until the organisation will not pass in a critical condition. Thereupon, the critical condition is asimtoticheski steady. It is important, that to a critical condition functioning NKO comes spontaneously and always irrespective of concrete influence of risk factors and uncertainty.

Stability of critical condition NKO is provided with the negative feedback forcing any bifurkatsiju during time to accept value k=k2, without dependence from entry conditions and from administrative actions on smoothing, adaptation to risk and uncertainty. As the given stability is reached at evolution NKO spontaneously, we will name its self-organised criticality.

we Consider, that in specified critical condition NKO it is characterised by following properties:

- the organisation is locally unstable (in separate spheres of the ability to live);

- the critical condition of the organisation is steady (takes place to be global stability).

Thus, internal potential NKO constantly varies because of local risks, however their influence on general provisions NKO, the reached critical condition remains invariable.

Described condition NKO is caused by slowly decreasing time and spatial correlations which mean, that the economic system with initial local properties can find out global behaviour at which NKO will behave as a unit.

it is necessary to notice, that probability of that as a result of the minimum external influence there is a symptom of crisis in the size N, has the following appearance:

P (N) ~ N - AND #963; , 0< AND #963; < 2 (1)

Characterizing the crisis phenomena in functioning NKO it is necessary to notice, that predictability of influence of risk and uncertainty is various.

the Risks caused in internal potential of the organisation (local bifurkatsii) are predicted. During too time occurrence global bifurkatsii (external influence of uncertainty and risk) is impossible.

we Consider, that the crisis condition of the noncommercial organisation is characterised by following fundamental features:

- produces sedate distributions of probabilities and

risks corresponding to it, acting thus fraktalnym object [5] ;

- it is compatible to presence of crises;

- crises can arise spontaneously.

Thus, we consider, that crisis in activity of the noncommercial organisation is a process of infringement of communications between its components which provide normal, effective functioning
the organisations, causing deterioration of conditions the functioning which are proving to be true in negative dynamics of indicators.

In our opinion, as the crisis reason act disbalansy which arise under the influence of the external and internal reasons.

Within the limits of dissertational research we will consider crisis identification as process of an establishment of conformity of actual parametres of functioning of the noncommercial organisation to crisis parametres. For crisis revealing expediently in research to use the approach of identification of danger in which all process is considered through a prism of revealing, estimations and recognitions of importance of threat for functioning NKO with its subsequent characteristic concerning display stages.

crisis Identifications in activity of the noncommercial organisations includes three stages:

- an establishment of the crisis phenomena,

- definition and monitoring of indicators of crisis,

- measurement of scales and depth of crisis and sensitivity of the noncommercial organisation to the negative phenomena for the purpose of development of decisions, on the basis of the received data.

Knowledge of process of course of crisis in the organisation, stages of its development will allow the administrative personnel to distinguish on earlier terms it and to take necessary measures both on preparation for crisis and on its overcoming.

Scientists-economists allocate different approaches to stages of crisis and their identification in the organisation. We will stop on separate of them. So Muller V. V crisis process allocates four stages, the potential of achievement of success is put in a basis of everyone. Kristek G in the approach places emphasis on potential of overcoming of crisis. Approaches of the given scientists, in our opinion are rather theoretical and cannot act as practical toolkit of identification of crisis
the managing subject. During too time it is necessary to note their advantage from attempt positions to characterise the earliest stages of crisis.

From the practical point of view methodical approaches to identification of crisis of domestic scientists are worthy. So Gradov A and Cousins B in the works place emphasis on trust of the shareholders interested in results of activity of the organisation [6] .

In positions of influence of crisis on an organisation internal efficiency identify given process Ajvazjan Z and Kirichenko V [7] [8]

Ordering of methodical approaches to process of identification of crisis in activity of managing subjects is resulted in table 1.

Table 1 - Identification of stages of development of crisis in researches

leading scientists

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the Author of the methodical approach the Sign of identification of a stage of crisis a crisis Phase the Note
Muller V Potential of achievement of success Strategic

crisis

decrease in potential of achievement of successes, absence of new change to the out-of-date products-leaders yielding high financial result
Crisis of results sales volume reduction on the basic goods-leaders, growth of expenses for warehousing,

necessity of search

additional investments

liquidity Crisis growth of credit restrictions of creditors, especially at great volume of external financing
Bankruptcy the debtor is not capable to answer in full requirements of creditors on financial

to obligations, and also cannot


table 1 Continuation

to carry out of obligations on

to repayment of the obligatory

payments.

Kristek G Potential of overcoming of crisis Potential crisis Kvazinormalnoe a condition

the organisations; the point has begun

crisis occurrence (not

real)

Latent crisis hidden, already available or with the greatest probability

shown crisis, whose

influence cannot be

it is defined by the standard

toolkit

Sharp surmountable crisis the enterprise visually sees and feels the adverse

crisis influence; the organisation has possibility to meet crisis as has for this purpose necessary potential

Sharp insuperable crisis for its overcoming it is necessary much more resources, than organisation potential
Gradov A, Cousins B Trust of shareholders Loss of shareholders profitableness decrease

(profitability) of the organisation

Loss of creditors deficiency of cash money resources, unprofitableness

operational activity

liquidity Loss personnel loss
Bankruptcy of shareholders cost of the enterprise is less than sum of obligations to creditors
Ajvazjan Z, Kirichenko V an organisation Internal efficiency profitability Crisis decrease in profitability and

profit volumes

development Crisis unprofitableness of the operational

activity

manufacture Crisis an exhaustion or absence

emergency funds

solvency Crisis ­ insolvency, threat

bankruptcies

For identification of crisis and working out of methodical approaches to management of the noncommercial organisation on principles anti-recessionary
management we will use the following classification of stages of crisis process:

1. A stage of potential crisis. At the given stage crisis in the organisation has not come yet, but system and stand-alone preconditions to its display were already generated.

2. A stage of latent crisis. At the given stage visible symptoms of crisis are not shown, but actually it has already begun and shown in qualitative changes in external and internal environments of the noncommercial organisation

3. A stage of sharp crisis. The stage is characterised by all obvious signs of the come crisis.

4. A stage of permanent crisis. The stage is characterised

end of sharp crisis and display of its result.

5. A stage of liquidation of crisis or the managing subject. The given stage is last in identification and reflects result of the done work on struggle against crisis.

For identification of crisis and development effective actions for struggle against it it is expedient to use the matrix approach which visually allows to define a stage of a crisis situation in the noncommercial organisation.

the Matrix of stages of crisis in the noncommercial organisation is resulted in drawing 1.

For identification of the specified stages of crisis and development of actions for struggle against them now it is applied two methodical approaches:

Drawing 1 - the Matrix of stages of crisis in the noncommercial organisation within the limits of their identification [9]

- the quantitative approach including an estimation of financial parametres of the managing subject. The approach the Fox, M.Fedotovoj, G.Springejta, O.Zajtsevoj, L.Dontsovoj, Tafflera, model R, RAS - koeffetsienty, model CHessera, method Argenti [10] includes rating models of the Central Bank of Russia, E.Nevolinoj, D.Djurana, G.Savitskoj, and also model of forecasting of bankruptcy of Altman, Bivera.

Use of the given approach with reference to the noncommercial organisations is debatable as their basic accent is made on application of indicators of a gain, own capital, a pure working capital, that is indicators characterising a financial condition and profitableness of business that is not a main objective of functioning of the given sector of economy.

- the qualitative approach based on the comparative analysis of the same economic situations, taking place to be in other managing subjects. The approach includes technique ARB, PARTS,

CAMPARI, CAMEL, PARSER, COPF. The given approach for use in the noncommercial organisations has advantages as is system and complex.

In modern practice is considered expedient to use one more methodical approach to crisis identification in the noncommercial organisation.

- the expert approach. Technology Rapid Foresight can be put in a basis, allowing to reach representative results in the short terms. The main condition of use of the given technique - a choice of group of the qualified experts which will analyze the indicators identifying the crisis phenomena of various depth and scale.

Identification of crises in activity of the noncommercial organisations is difficult dynamic processes which should consider features of the given sector of economy, their purposes.

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A source: Surovneva Anna Aleksandrovna. FORMATION of ANTI-RECESSIONARY STRATEGY of the NONCOMMERCIAL ORGANIZATIONS. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci. An eagle - 2018. 2018

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  2. the Analysis of a modern condition of the noncommercial organisations to Russia, a role and a place of the crisis phenomena in their activity
  3. § 2.3. The noncommercial organisations as a kind not state The organisations
  4. Paragraph 2.2 the Legal capacity of the noncommercial organisations.
  5. § 1.1 Noncommercial organisations as subjects of an inconsistency
  6. Factors of occurrence of crisis in the noncommercial organisations
  7. Definition of a problematics and tendencies of strategic development of the noncommercial organisations in the conditions of uncertainty and risk
  8. § 2.3 External management of the noncommercial organisations at bankruptcy
  9. Functions, principles and methods of strategic management of the noncommercial organisations in the conditions of crisis
  10. § 2.2 Financial improvement at an inconsistency of the noncommercial organisations
  11. § 2.1 Supervision as bankruptcy procedure At an inconsistency of the noncommercial organisations
  12. § 1.2 Concepts and signs of an inconsistency (bankruptcy) of the noncommercial organisations
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