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the Technique of an estimation of risks at integration lesohozjajstvennogo and derevoobrabatyvajushchego manufactures

In the literature devoted to the analysis of strategy of development of the enterprises it is underlined, that along with an efficiency estimation, the big attention in the course of the strategic analysis should be given an estimation of risks at decision-making on integration [28, 73].

Mosin V. F specifies that the "return" party of integration is shown that the risks of various spheres which were before integration external in relation to the industrial enterprise become internal owing to association of directions. In such conditions management of risks is in a dialectics paradigm - the integration purpose consists in dissipatsii risks and decrease in their total influence, however its realisation often causes increase in their number at the expense of redistribution of risks in relation to firm from external in internal [114].

the Researches spent to different years in the USA, show, that on the average diversifitsirovannye firms have indicators worse, than other companies. Scientists of the different countries notice, that the failure of many programs of integration is connected with a number of the complexities inherent in given programs, among which:

economic - diversifikatsija, as well as integration inevitably increases expenses, mark And. V.Shtefan, N.I.Denisova [36, 45];

administrative - complexity of operation of business in wildlife management sphere raises, is noted in Tishkovoj L.V., Gritskevich O. V's works [41, 172];

consumer - the effect diversifikatsii can be brought to nothing consumers [53];

competitive - the major requirements of strategy of a competition [168] are ignored.

Integration, on the one hand, reduces risk at the expense of elimination of dependence of the enterprise from any one goods or the market, but with another - increases it as there is a risk inherent in integration, and arising owing to certain internal and external factors.

In the literature devoted to the analysis of strategy of development of the enterprises it is underlined, that along with an estimation of efficiency of integration, the big attention in the course of strategic management should be given an estimation of risks at decision-making on interbranch association [28, 119].

Owing to that at integration the risk of accepted strategic decisions raises, objects in view partially or completely are not reached [65]. At integration of the enterprises, the main brave factors are:

Lacks of strategy of integration.

1. Incorrect estimations of a realizability in practice of strategic initiatives.

2. A lack of appropriate monitoring over process of association [169].

Integration of the organisations allows to lower risk of managing, and can be successful only in that case when it raises the competitive status of the enterprise as a whole.

At all visible advantages, integration lesohozjajstvennogo manufactures and derevoobrabatyvajushchego manufactures on the basis of creation and operation of timber industry plantations is connected with appreciable risks.

That speaks presence of the circumstances causing impossibility of reception of expected results at creation and operation of timber industry plantations by the integrated enterprises. There is a direct interrelation between degree of risk and expected profitableness on the invested industrial capital.

Thereupon it is necessary to develop a technique of an estimation of brave losses and incomes of the enterprises of a wood complex at creation and operation of timber industry plantations.

the risk Theory shows, that the susceptibility to innovations is alternative to uncertainty of the future economic processes and to the risk connected with it. Presence, risk as companion of prospective profit the professor of Chicago university Frenk Knight (1885-1962) according to which theory, the profit can be negative and positive size considered throughout four decades. Uncertainty generates discrepancy meanwhile that people expect, and that really occurs. Quantitative expression of this discrepancy is the profit or the loss.

Confirming this theory, practice shows, the enterprise sets as the purpose not achievement of the maximum profit, and reception of its steady growth. Taking into account risks it is necessary to consider profit as a random variable.

Evident representation about level of commercial risk gives a graphic representation of dependence of probability of losses from their size - a curve of risk [21].

Construction of such curve is based on a hypothesis, that the profit as a random variable is subordinated to the normal law of distribution (fig. 12) and assumes following assumptions.

Drawing 12 - the Typical curve of probabilities of reception of a certain profit level

1. Most possibly reception have arrived, equal settlement size (Pr). The probability (Vr) receptions of such profit is maximum also value P it is possible to consider as a profit population mean. The probability of reception of profit, bolshej or smaller in comparison with settlement, monotonously decreases in process of growth of deviations.

2. Losses consider profit reduction (AP) in comparison with settlement size. If the real profit is equal P, AP = Pr - the Item

the Accepted assumptions not always are fair for all kinds of risks, but as a whole truly enough reflect most the general laws of change of commercial risk and give the chance to construct a curve of distribution of probabilities of losses of profit which name a risk curve.

we Will allocate on the represented curve of distribution of probabilities of losses of profit (income) a number of characteristic points (fig. 13).

Drawing 13 - the Curve of distribution of probabilities of losses of profit

First point =0 and In = In r defines probability of zero losses of profit. According to the accepted assumptions the probability of zero losses is maximum, though, of course, there is less than unit.

Second point = and = d is characterised by the size of possible losses equal to expected profit, i.e. Full loss of profit.

Points 1 and 2 are boundary, defining position of a zone of admissible risk.

Third point = and = kr corresponds to size of the losses equal to settlement gain VR. The probability of such losses is equal In kr .

Points 2 and 3 delimit zones of critical risk.

Fourth point = and = kt is characterised by the losses equal property (IS) to a condition predpijatija which probability is equal In kt .

Between points 3 and 4 there is a zone of catastrophic risk.

the Losses exceeding actives of the enterprise, are not considered, as they cannot be collected.

the Main thing in a risk estimation - possibility of construction of a curve of risk and definition of zones and indicators of admissible, critical and catastrophic risks.

Among ways of construction of a curve of risk allocate statistical, expert, settlement-analytical. In case of research of risks of activity on creation and operation industrial lesosyrevyh plantations, unfortunately, cannot be used statistical and raschetnoanalitichesky methods owing to insufficient statistical base. There is an expert way.

the Expert way known under the name of a method of expert estimations, with reference to risk of integration of the enterprises on the basis of creation and operation of timber industry plantations can be realised by processing of opinions of skilled experts.

the Most important for consideration, in our opinion is the size of consequences from risk realisation. For an estimation of a curve of risk it is possible to be limited to reception of expert estimations of probabilities of occurrence of certain level of losses in characteristic points, i.e. it is necessary to establish in the expert image, for example, indicators of the most possible admissible and critical losses, meaning, both their levels, and probabilities.

On these characteristic points it is simple to reproduce roughly all curve of distribution of probabilities of losses.

the Method of expert estimations for an estimation of brave losses is necessary for applying separately to each of three described technologies of operation of timber industry plantations [50].

Risks at creation of timber industry plantations and their operation are difficult [64].

the Organizations face many various kinds of risks, in most general understanding grouped on the basis of their predictability, controllability and management. In most general view for the integrated activity on the basis of creation and operation of timber industry plantations four groups of risks are characteristic:

- risks of integration processes to which it is necessary to carry a wrong choice of the form of association, control loss over the integrated structure, occurrence of corporate conflicts and not achievement of strategic problems and plans.

- the prirodno-climatic and ecological risks connected with the reasons of natural character, including extreme natural situations: high gorimost woods, flash of mass reproduction of harmful organisms, damage of woods under the influence of spontaneous climatic factors, the extreme weather phenomena;

- the risks connected with socio-economic factors, including an adverse economic situation in the market of wood production, insufficiency of a manpower and qualified personnel, increase in export duties at raw wood, growth of cost of energy carriers, growth of traffic rates;

- risks of administrative character, including imperfection of regulatory legal acts in sphere of creation of timber industry plantations and their operation, insufficiency of measures of the state support industrial
activity, nizkoeffektivnyj management, absence of legal base in the Russian legislation on building and operation of wood roads.

Acceptance of the strategic decision on integration lesohozjajstvennogo manufactures and derevoobrabotki on the basis of creation and operation of timber industry plantations is connected with certain degree of risk.

the Greatest damage integrated lesohozjajstvennym and derevoobrabatyvajushchim carrying out creation of timber industry plantations and their operation is caused to the enterprises as a result of display of the specific branch risks which list is constituted by us on the basis of T.E.Katkovoj's technique [63]:

- forest fire;

- not authorised cutting down of a large forest;

- mass reproduction of insects-wreckers of wood;

- cabin of natural woods without observance of recommendations and laws;

- absence of high systems, suitable for journey to an allotment;

- mass development of illnesses of wood;

- wood damages by wild animals;

- adverse weather conditions (vetroval, a drought etc.) and other influences (pollution by industrial, chemical emissions);

the Following analytical step consists in definition of that, integration of these kinds of activity on the basis of creation and operation of timber industry plantations is how much risky.

This administrative decision should be considered from two parties:

1) whether expected level of incomes is provided at integration lesohozjajstvennogo manufactures and derevoobrabotki taking into account various technology of creation and operation of a timber industry plantation;

2) what probability of losses in case of realisation of brave events taking into account various technology of creation and operation of a timber industry plantation.

In drawings 1 4 and 1 5 algorithms of decision-making on a choice of type of timber industry plantations are presented at integration lesohozjajstvennogo manufactures and derevoobrabotki.

As to consider all kinds of risks listed above, in aggregate it is not obviously possible, for our research we will be limited to the most dangerous phenomenon, a leading heavier consequence, than the others. It is a question of forest fires.

In the Russian Federation during the fire-dangerous period of year constant monitoring and forecasting of forest fires (according to GOST R 22 (1999)) is led. However long-term forecasts in this case cannot be received.

Therefore unique possible way of reception of probability of forest fire within a year is the method of expert estimations. In our research we will consider fires of two kinds: extensive - burns out more than 50 % of the area of plantings, and local - burns out less than 50 % of the area lesoposadok. We will designate probability of an extensive fire p obsh , and probability local - p lok .

Drawing 14 Algorithm of decision-making on a choice of type of timber industry plantations taking into account a risk factor (a part 1) 6

6 Working out of the author

Drawing 15 - Algorithm of decision-making on a choice of type of timber industry plantations taking into account a risk factor (a part 2).

Decision-making on creation and operation of timber industry plantations in practice is interfaced to refusal of a traditional way of operation lesosyrevoj bases.

thus reproduction traditional lesosyrevoj for the integrated enterprise will constitute bases of an order 60 and above years.

Then, for a substantiation of advantages of integration on the basis of creation and operation of timber industry plantations from a position of minimisation of risks, we will consider a six-ten years' production cycle with reference to operation of timber industry plantations.

Considering a six-ten years' cycle, we will consider, that the probability of an extensive or local fire in any year is identical. Then the described conditions represent the scheme of independent tests Bernulli. Hence, we can find the most probable number of approach of event (an extensive or local fire) from parities:

where n = 60 - the general number of tests,

- probability of failure of consideration of an extensive fire,

- probability of failure of consideration of a local fire,

- the most probable number of extensive and local fires accordingly for a 60-year-old cycle.

the Probability of such quantity of forest fires is defined under formula Bernulli

or with use of local theorem Muavra-Laplasa:

Knowing the most probable number of forest fires during the 60-year-old period, we can define losses of the integrated structure which develop from
losses of a real gain and expenses for restoration of timber industry plantations.

Further using integrated theorem Muavra-Laplasa, we can find probabilities of that the number of fires for a 60-year-old cycle will lay in limits from k and #955; to k 2 :

until received values of probability will exceed some limiting size defining degree of limiting risk. We will receive some values of probability for which

we can define borders of losses of a gain and expenses on restoration of timber industry plantations.

Similarly we will consider other kinds of risks. For convenience we will number risks from 1 to l. for j th risk, using the technique described above, we can calculate the most probable number of approach of two events:

- extensive losses of the integrated enterprise as a result of j th risk for i- density of plantings; A ' - local losses of the integrated enterprise as a result of j th risk for i- density of creation of timber industry plantations:

Under formula Bernulli we will calculate corresponding probabilities:

For each probability we will calculate expected losses on each of three types of rotation of timber industry plantations I, II, III. We will enter designations:

Further it is necessary to estimate the general possible losses of timber industry plantations. For simplicity of research we will believe, that all kinds of risks are independent in aggregate, i.e. approach of one brave event does not involve change of probability of other brave event.

Then the general possible losses will be equal to the sum of products of losses at j- risk on corresponding probability of approach of brave event

Considering, that as a result of operation of timber industry plantations there can come one or several of l risks the most probable number of times, will find probability of that risks will not come:

Then the probability of approach of any brave event will be equal:

Thus, we have received conformity

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As risks we will consider two carrying out creation most essential to the integrated enterprise and operation of timber industry plantations - fires and reproduction of insects-wreckers. For definition of probabilities of risks we will use opinions of experts.

As experts are limited in estimations, we will reduce a risk level to two conditions: local risk (means loss less than 50 % of plantings) and extensive (loss from 50 to 100 % of plantings).

Thus, it was offered to experts to estimate probabilities of approach of two kinds of risks (a fire and reproduction of insects) in two levels - local and extensive.

In table 15 results of estimations of six experts and the received total estimations of probabilities (as a total estimation average value of estimations of experts was considered) are presented.

Table 15 - Results of interrogation of experts

FIO the expert the Post Density of planting, t.sht./hectares the Estimation of probability of approach of event
the Fire Mass reproduction of insects-wreckers
Loss less than 50 % of a plantation (local losses) Loss more than 50 % of a plantation (extensive losses) Loss less than 50 % of a plantation (local losses) Loss more than 50 % of a plantation (extensive losses)
1 3 0,21 0,03 0,08 0,01
5 0,22 0,03 0,08 0,01
8 0,23 0,04 0,09 0,02
10 0,24 0,04 0,09 0,02
2 3 0,13 0,04 0,09 0,02
5 0,14 0,05 0,09 0,02
8 0,14 0,05 0,09 0,03
10 0,15 0,06 0,1 0,03
3 3 0,04 0,008 0,1 0,04
5 0,05 0,009 0,1 0,05
8 0,06 0,009 0,2 0,05
10 0,065 0,01 0,2 0,06

4 3 0,02 0,005 0,005 0,001
5 0,03 0,003 0,005 0,001
8 0,03 0,002 0,003 0,001
10 0,035 0,001 0,003 0,001
5 3 0,1 0,004 0,006 0,004
5 0,05 0,004 0,009 0,004
8 0,05 0,002 0,009 0,005
10 0,04 0,002 0,01 0,006
6 3 0,07 0,008 0,06 0,005
5 0,2 0,02 0,07 0,004
8 0,3 0,03 0,08 0,003
10 0,4 0,04 0,07 0,001
Total values of estimations 3 0,10 0,02 0,06 0,01
5 0,12 0,02 0,06 0,01
8 0,14 0,02 0,08 0,02
10 0,16 0,03 0,08 0,02

Further for each of four variants of density of creation of timber industry plantations we will make calculations of the most probable number of approach of risk.

For example, for a case of local risk of a fire at density of planting of timber industry plantations of 3 thousand in/hectares the received probability is equal 0,095.

Then the probability not risk approaches is equal q = 1-0,095 = 0,905. Further expression np-q = 60 and # 8729; 0,095 - 0,905 = 4,795, and np+q = 60 and # 8729; 0,095 + 0,905 = 6,605. Then the most probable number of local fires during 60 years arising on timber industry plantations lays in limits from 4,795 to 6,605 and is equal 6.

Now under the formula we will calculate probability of that the given kind of risk will come exactly 6 times for 60 years:

Further we will calculate losses on restoration of timber industry plantations: we consider, that at the quantity of brave events equal 6, to us it is necessary to restore 6 times half of plantation (at a local risk level).

Expenses on restoration of timber industry plantations, by our calculations develop of expenses for soil preparation (63,4 t.r./hectares), planting of plants (12,5 t.r./hectares) and carrying out agrotechnical uhodov behind a plantation (3 t.r./hectares).

a risk Kind the Fire Mass reproduction of insects-wreckers the Fire Mass reproduction of insects-wreckers
Losses Local Extensive Local Extensive Local Extensive Local Extensive
Density of planting 3 5
Probability P 0,095 0,016 0,057 0,013 0,115 0,019 0,059 0,015
Probability of failure of consideration of risk q 0,905 0,984 0,943 0,987 0,885 0,981 0,941 0,985
np - q 4,795 -0,034 2,467 -0,187 6,015 0,179 2,599 -0,095
np+q 6,605 1,934 4,353 1,787 7,785 2,141 4,481 1,875
the Most probable number of approach of risk 6 1 4 1 7 2 4 1
Probability of approach of risk within 60 years 0,168 0,370 0,192 0,362 0,158 0,213 0,196 0,369
Expected losses on plantation restoration, t.r./hectares 281,7 93,9 187,8 93,9 375,55 214,6 214,6 107,3

a risk Kind the Fire Mass reproduction of insects-wreckers the Fire Mass reproduction of insects-wreckers
Losses Local Extensive Local Extensive Local Extensive Local Extensive
Density of planting 8 10
Probability P 0,135 0,022 0,079 0,018 0,155 0,026 0,079 0,020
Probability of failure of consideration of risk q 0,865 0,978 0,921 0,982 0,845 0,975 0,921 0,980
np - q 7,235 0,352 3,799 0,108 8,455 0,556 3,809 0,200
np+q 8,965 2,308 5,641 2,072 10,145 2,505 5,651 2,160
the Most probable number of approach of risk 8 2 5 2 10 2 5 2
Probability of approach of risk within 60 years 0,150 0,237 0,182 0,202 0,133 0,257 0,182 0,216
Expected losses on plantation restoration, t.r./hectares 483,2 241,6 302 241,6 649 259,6 324,5 259,6

Thus, expenses which the integrated enterprise in case of realisation of brave event will incur will constitute 281,7 t.r./hectares.

Similar calculations it is made for all other cases, we reduce in tables 16 and 17.

Now we can calculate probability of approach of any brave event (the formula (23) - (26)) and losses on plantation restoration (formulas (21) - (22)).

For density of planting of timber industry plantations of 3 thousand piece of/hectares at a local risk level it is received:

J ~ 1

the Probability of absence of risks is equal 1-0,328 = 0,672.

Proceeding from the spent calculations, losses concerning definition on restoration of timber industry plantations and probability of approach / not approaches of a brave situation, we will constitute the total table reflecting cumulative loss (table 18).

-loss Table 18 on restoration of a plantation and risks

Lok. Obsh. Lok. Obsh. Lok. Obsh. Lok. Obsh.
Losses on plantation restoration, t.r. 83,35 68,81 101,57 85,30 127,24 105,99 145,22 122,95
Probability of any risk 0,33 0,60 0,32 0,50 0,30 0,39 0,29 0,42
Probability of absence of risks 0,67 0,68 0,70 0,71

Further for each of 12 creations described above technologies and operation of timber industry plantations we can construct the approached function of distribution of profit (we will display only the left branch - the area of losses which is responsible for risks).

here

s = I, II, III, i = 1,2,3,4.

If the received gain is equal to expenses (=) the given point will be considered limiting at manufacture planning. We will note on an axis of abscisses value of expenses Z 1 (fig. 16).

On the given value we can find corresponding probability P s 1 (BP=3). Least of probabilities P s 1 (BP=3) defines that from 12 strategy at which the probability of critical risk will be minimum.

Drawing 16 - the Approached schedule of distribution of a gain taking into account risks

Function is kusochno-linear and is under construction on three points (" 1 to P ; R s and # 953; don ), (VR si and #954; p ; R s and # 953; kr) and (VR si ; R s and # 953; ). For construction it is necessary to calculate values of the general possible losses of the income which develop from

110


calculated before losses on restoration of timber industry plantations and actually gain loss in connection with approach of brave event.

gain Loss is considered depending on number of brave events for the considered period (60 years) taking into account a cabin turn. For example, in case of a minirotational plantation for density of planting of 3 thousand piece of/hectares the most probable number of local risks will be equal 6+4=10, and extensive - 1+1=2. Then provided that for 60 years we have 6 rotation (for 10 years everyone) local risks will mention all rotation and half of gain for each rotation will be lost, and extensive risks will mention 2 of 6 rotation, but with loss of a full gain in these two rotation.

Now for each of 12 creations described above technologies and operation of timber industry plantations we can construct the approached function of distribution of profit. Calculations by all variants of technologies of creation and operation of timber industry plantations we will tabulate.

Table 19 - Central points of schedules of profit

the Turn of cabin, years Density of planting, t.sht./hectares VRdop R DOP VRkr Rkr VR R Z Probability

R (=)

Mini - rotational, 10 years 3,0 186,65 0,328 291,19 0,599 540 0,672 248,7 0,58
5,0 222,43 0,32 238,7 0,5 648 0,676 288,9 0,52
8,0 208,76 0,3 398,01 0,39 1008 0,7 329,4 0,35
10,0 250,78 0,29 471,05 0,42 1188 0,71 356,4 0,35
Midi - rotational, 20 years 3,0 532,8 0,328 855,59 0,599 1848,8 0,672 166 0,01
5,0 -101,57 0,32 961,5 0,5 2093,6 0,676 192,8 0,37
8,0 -127,24 0,3 1083,61 0,39 2379,2 0,7 219,8 0,33
10,0 -145,22 0,29 917,45 0,42 2080,8 0,71 237,8 0,34
Maksi - rotational, 30 years 3,0 -83,5 0,328 815,69 0,569 1769 0,672 83,3 0,38
5,0 -101,57 0,32 840,7 0,5 1852 0,676 96,7 0,36
8,0 -127,24 0,3 616,01 0,39 1444 0,7 110,2 0,33
10,0 -145,22 0,29 451,05 0,42 1148 0,71 119,2 0,35

Central points of schedules of profit are calculated by us in table 20.

From the presented table we see, that for minirotational plantations of the least probable there will be a situation, that the received gain will be equal to the expenses caused by risks for density of plantings 8 and 10 thousand of piece of/hectares.

table 20 - Losses of the income and an expense for plantation restoration

the Turn rub

ki, years

G ustota plantings, t.sht./hectares the Income of the tenant taking into account rotation, t.r. Full proiz - waters - stven - nye expenses of the tenant Number of risks for the period lesopolzovanija income Losses Expenses for plantation restoration Probability

R (=)

local extensive at lo

kalnyh risks

at about

shirnyh risks

at lo

kalnyh risks

at about

shirnyh risks

Mini - rotational, 10 years 3,0 540,0 248,7 10 2 270 180 83,35 68,81 0,6
5,0 648,0 288,9 11 3 324 324 101,57 85,3 0,52
8,0 1008,0 329,4 13 4 504 672 127,24 105,99 0,35
10,0 1188,0 356,4 15 4 594 792 145,22 122,95 0,35
Midi - rotational, 20 years 3,0 1848,8 166 10 2 924,4 1232,5 83,35 68,81 0,01
5,0 2093,6 192,8 11 3 1046,8 2093,6 101,57 85,3 0,37
8,0 2379,2 219,8 13 4 1189,6 2379,2 127,24 105,99 0,33
10,0 2080,8 237,8 15 4 1040,4 2080,8 145,22 122,95 0,34
Maksi - rotational, 30 years 3,0 1769,0 83,3 10 2 884,5 1769 83,35 68,81 0,38
5,0 1852,0 96,7 11 3 926 1852 101,57 85,3 0,36
8,0 1444,0 110,2 13 4 722 1444 127,24 105,99 0,33
10,0 1148,0 119,2 15 4 574 1148 145,22 122,95 0,35

Evident representation about productivity of integration depending on technology of creation and operation of timber industry plantations taking into account possible brave losses is given by schedules have arrived (drawings 17-19).

Drawing 17 - Schedules have arrived for minirotational plantations

For a situation midirotatsionnyh plantations the least probability of that the received gain will be equal to the expenses caused by risks, is characteristic for 3 thousand piece of/hectares, the greatest probability of that the received gain will be equal to the expenses caused by risks, is characteristic for 5 thousand piece of/hectares.

Drawing 18 - Schedules have arrived for midirotatsionnyh plantations 127

For a situation maksirotatsionnyh plantations the least probability of that the received gain will be equal to the expenses caused by risks, is characteristic for 8 thousand piece of/hectares, the greatest probability of that the received gain will be equal to the expenses caused by risks, is characteristic for 3 thousand piece of/hectares.

Maksirotatsionnye plantations

Drawing 19 - Schedules have arrived for maksirotatsionnyh plantations

Thus, according to the technique of an estimation of brave losses offered above and algorithm of management, it is possible to draw a conclusion, that the least probability of that the received gain will be equal to the expenses caused by risks, is equal 0,01 (1 %), that corresponds midirotatsionnoj to a plantation with density of planting of 3 thousand piece of/hectares.

this technology it is necessary optimum minimisation to recognise brave from a position and maximisation of incomes of the integrated enterprise at creation and operation of timber industry plantations.

the Offered technique of an estimation of a risk level of realisation of activity, allows to provide preventively decrease in risks of integration lesohozjajstvennogo and derevoobrabatyvajushchego manufactures on the basis of creation and operation of timber industry raw plantations.

2.3.

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A source: TORZHOK IVAN OLEGOVICH. the MECHANISM of STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT of the ENTERPRISES of the WOOD COMPLEX. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci. Voronezh - 2018. 2018

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