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Classification of financial risks, revealing, diagnostics and procedures of their estimation and forecasting


It is noticed, that today on level of the organisation of managerial process by risks all companies can be divided into three groups. The first, the most numerous - the companies in which risk-management is not present in general.
There is no the structural unit which are responsible for management by risks. However the number of such companies is reduced. Those companies which, having realised necessity for risk-management, have created at itself the structure consisting from two to five workers which simultaneously combine functions of analysts concern the second group. The third group is made by the companies which have come nearer to the best western standards of management of risks. However their quantity is very limited, is basically leaders who realise necessity of increase of reliability and are capable to afford scale investments into risk - management [111].
The researchers attending to risks also notice, that certain extreme measures take place also. Many chiefs of the enterprises are keen on matrixes of risks and deep mathematical likelihood accounts, for example Value at Risk (VaR) in its different updatings. However, in practice often such risk-management does not work. This results from the fact that risk -
Management, especially on major concerns, is interdisciplinary
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Science, crossing of several fields of knowledge:, economic, legal, etc. Therefore the basic most important problem of the risk-manager the organisation of regular process and technology of management of risks, integration of risk-management into all business processes of the company at which actually each responsible of the company, from the manager of the top echelon to the engineer, should evaluate the actions from the point of view of risk and possible consequences is technical. That is at the given stage of the development risk - management is new philosophy of management which leans against conceptually complete approach to business [110].
For management of risks it is important to generate the unified qualifier of risks, with allowance for areas of risk, classes and subclasses of risk, risk groups. Thus the qualifier should allow to trace interrelation of each concrete kind of risks with other risks and to consider specificity of activity of the company.
Including the author of research specific risks have been introduced to the companies in the unified qualifier and the qualifier of risks of Open Society "ЮТК" is generated. In it all kinds of risk are grouped on areas: strategic management, an operational administration, management of the finance, extreme situations. For our research interest is represented by risks in the field of management of the finance which are divided into following classes of risks: price risks, exchange risks, interest risks, credit risks, risks in the field of management of liquidity, risks in the field of insolvency (Appendix A).
Let's consider in more details, that is included in each class of financial risks.
The class of price risks includes the groups of risks connected with threats and possibilities in the field of unexpected change of prices of goods, services, financial instruments (change of market prices for various types of service of communication; change of market prices for the basic consumed resources; a price risk
On financial investments; change of a stock value of the company on a capital market).

The class of exchange risks includes the groups of risks connected with threats and possibilities in the field of change of rates of exchange, including rates of several currencies rather one another (risk of attraction of financing in a foreign exchange, risk of application currency derivativov, risk of financial investments into the tools nominated in a foreign exchange, risk of job rating of services in the "standard units" adhered to a rate of foreign exchanges).
The class of interest risks includes the groups of risks connected with threats and possibilities in the field of change of structure and (or) a level of interest rates (risk of change of interest rates on extra means with floating interest rates, risk of change of interest rates in the market at availability in a portfolio of the company of liquid financial investments with the fixed rates, risk of application percentage derivativov, risk of attraction of extra means under the fixed interest rates).
The class of credit risks includes the groups of risks connected with threats and possibilities in area by performance by counterparts of the credit obligations to the company (risk of infringement of obligations from debtors on communication fee, risk of infringement of obligations from counterparts on financing activities, risk of the guarantee of the company for affiliated and (or) dependent companies before the third parties, risk insufficient diversifikatsii financial investments of the company on counterparts, the credit risk connected with fulfilment by the company of the obligations, risk of increase in the general debt receivable).
The class of risks on management of liquidity includes the groups of risks connected with threats and possibilities in the field of management by free money resources of the company (risks of formation of cash ruptures, risks of change of level of satisfaction of clients).

The class of risks on management of insolvency includes group of the risks connected with impossibility of attraction of credit resources for fulfilment of commitments of finance.
In the offered qualifier of risks the system of interrelation of risks with other risks is developed.
Such approach allows all divisions of the company in which there are corresponding business functions and business processes, in a complex to influence according to the given system of interrelation of risks certain factors. The given qualifier should is a basis of the system approach to the account and the analysis of statistics of risks in the company.
Besides the qualifier the important component of a control system of risks (Appendix) and the base register of risks the companies (Appendix) which are formed should be the List of control procedures (are staticized) following the results of interviewing, post termination procedures on revealing, an estimation and ranging of risks.
Diagnostics of risks is the important stage in a control system of risks. This process includes the major directions: revealing of risks (strategic, financial, risks of business processes) and classification of risks by functional directions, management and importance levels.
Inventory is a primary basis of revealing of risks in the company on which basis the register of risks of the company is made.
At a stage of revealing of risks the analysis and forecasting of an economic conjuncture, revealing of possibilities and requirements of the company within the limits of the accepted strategy and development current plans is carried out.
For revealing of risks the following information is used:
Accounting and other reporting of the company (the analysis of data about a condition of a fixed capital, a stock rate of materials and finished goods, size of debt and creditor indebtedness, the analysis financial rezul
tatov activity - allow to reveal a significant share of financial, credit, operational risks);
Organizational structure and the company list of staff (the analysis of the given information allows to reveal organizational risks);
-Financially-production plans, company budgets (the analysis of completeness of their fulfilment and deviations gives the chance to evaluate in a complex stability of the enterprise for all set of risks and efficiency of activity);
External financial and economic and political factors of activity of the company (risks of business in the changed conditions of the external environment - commercial, financial etc.);
The description of business processes, data of reports from the automated settlement system (ASR), the technical reporting and the analysis of acting regulations (allow to reveal set of risks and their interrelation, including cross-country-functional risks).
At primary revealing and inventory of risks following standard methods can be used:
The analysis of statistics - the analysis of the data represented by the company to Federal service of the state statistics (including according to Position of Federal service of the state statistics № 78 from 20.12.2006 «About the assertion of statistical toolkit for the organisation in system Rossvjazi of statistical supervision over communication»);
Studying of registration data - the analysis fixed before infringements, non-staff situations, failures in processes of the company and to that of the similar facts of a deviation of indicators of current activity from planned;
The analysis of experience of other companies - the comparative analysis of processes and indicators of the company and the other large companies telecommunication and other branches, with use of results of auditor checks, reports, the conclusions about risks, brave models of these companies;

As a result of the analysis of business processes and revealing of risks of each business process the list of operational risks is formed. After actualisation of business processes their analysis for the purpose of revealing of possible brave events is carried out.
Individual expert methods (questioning, interview) and group methods (brain storm, a business game) are applied. Unlike individual, group methods assume collective work of experts, they require the coordination of opinions of all experts and working out of the general expert conclusion.
For the purpose of revealing of risks on a regular basis monitoring of publications about the company, performances of chiefs of the profile ministries and departments, opinions of branch experts is carried out, projects of is standard-legal documents, concepts of development of branch, forecasts of analysts, materials of profile conferences are analyzed.
The analysis of the data received by means of the special equipment is carried out also. The given method assumes active use of analytical systems and the control and measuring equipment, allowing to process the data acting from the equipment.
The significant attention is given to the analysis of reports by results of auditor, complex and other checks. The given method represents random inspection of separate plots of activity and company business processes. The given method can be combined with realisation of separate expert methods (questioning, interview). Conformity between the available documentation and actual options is checked, the analysis of regulations and the instructions connected with adjustment of the equipment is carried out, the equipment configuration is investigated, journals of failures or documents similar to them are analyzed. The conclusion on which basis identification and an estimation of risks is conducted prepares.

New risks can be revealed not only in course of execution of regular procedures within the limits of a control system of risks, but also during realisation by employees of the company of the current activity.
In case of detection of the information on possibility of existence of the potential risk which earlier has been not included in the register of risks of the company, the employee directs the report on risk or the service record in which states the revealed information to department of methodology and risks. The Risk-manager and department of methodology and risks analyze and evaluate the received information and in case of need direct it on consideration of committee on risks for the purpose of inclusion of new risk to the register of risks of the company.
Process of inventory of risks is spent not less often than once a year (in IV quarter of the year previous year on which the program on management of risks is formed) and assumes regular revaluation before the revealed risks, i.e. definition of an urgency and level of importance of the risks which are in the Register of risks of the company at the moment of revaluation. As a result of inventory the new risks some of earlier revealed risks can be revealed can be recognised by irrelevant, and available risks can be redistributed on level of importance in the register of risks of the company. The risks revealed during current activity, which estimation exceeds an importance threshold, can be introduced in confirmed by Board of directors for a current year the register of risks on submission of committee of Board of directors on audit, thus the total of essential risks, as a rule should not exceed 15 risks.
Objective both close classification of risks and sequence of their diagnostics is a conditio sine qua non of formation of an effective control system of risks.
The sequence of diagnostics of risks is resulted on fig. 1.2.



KP - control procedures;
OMiR - department of methodology and risks;
TWO - internal audit department;
FP - functional divisions;
DB - a database.
BP - business processes.
Fig. 1. 2. Sequence of fixing and diagnostics of risks
(It is developed by the author)
Studying of the theory and work practice on management of risks in the telecommunication companies has shown, that at the heart of classification of risks should lay, following signs: functionality, importance, probability, interrelation with other risks.
Quality standard of risks is conducted for the purpose of allocation in all set of risks of business processes of the most significant risks by criteria of importance and probability.
Quality standard of risks is carried out on certain algorithm in which sphere of realisation functional divisions are involved
The companies, holders of risks, experts. The defined are thus formed
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The databases including the most actual essential and moderate risks. Given pr edlagaemyj the algorithm is presented on fig. 1.3.
OMiR



OMiR



Symbols:
KP - control procedures;
OMiR - department of methodology and risks;
TWO - internal audit department;
DB - a database;
FE - functional experts.
Fig. 1.3. Quality standard of risks (it is developed by the author)
One of methods of quality standard is electronic questioning (the developed electronic questionnaires-output agents are used).
The questioning purpose - to receive the structured data file, allowing to answer following questions:
What risks have the highest quality standard of importance and probability and, accordingly, first of all are subject to management?;
What functional directions of activity of the company are the most important from an item of management of risks?;

-What risks are the most significant in each functional area and on a joint of these areas?
For achievement of these purposes during researches the following order of processing of results of questioning has been defined:
To each of experts participating in questioning the certain weight calculated on the basis of set criteria and data, indicated by the expert before questionnaire filling is pirated;
The average significance of importance and probability by means of realisation of accounts is defined;
Quality standard of a population mean (importance) of risk is calculated. By the received estimation ranging of the general file of risks in decreasing order is conducted;
According to the set threshold significances the group of the risks, stating the greatest investment in a total estimation of a population mean is allocated. To the given risks the risks which have received an estimation of importance, close to maximum (are added at an estimation of the importance below threshold significance). The received group of risks first of all is subject to management;
The general file breaks in functional directions, and in each functional direction the average estimation of importance and probability of risks of the given direction is calculated. The result shows, what functional directions are the most important from an item of management of risks;
From risks of each functional direction, according to the set threshold significances, the most significant risks are allocated.
On the received files average group significances of importance and probability are defined. The received estimations are additional to estimations of the importance of the functional directions, received in the previous item.

G ruppovaja the estimation of importance or probability in all cases is calculated as the average size of estimations of all experts with allowance for individual weight of each expert under the following formula:




i=1
Where h - the average significance of importance, or probability; Rg, h - accordingly, individual weight and an importance estimation, or probabilities the expert with number i.
The principle of the combined scale of weight of the expert consists that one of the factors of weight chosen by us influence an estimation of the expert as a whole, without dependence from significances of other factors, and other factors - only on a part of this estimation. Matematicheski significances of the first factors should be multiplied (them name multiplicate), and the second - to develop (them name additive). The formula of account of the combined weight of the expert can be written down in a following kind:
r = л1... lp Ea,
i=1
Where p - weight of the expert;
Л1... Lp - significances of multiplicate factors;
а1... ak - significances of additive factors.
At account of a group estimation factors "Post" and "Specialization" are accepted as multiplicate, and factors "Experience" and "Place" - as additive. The weight of the expert settled up as follows:
p = D h With h (St +),
Where p - weight of the expert;
D - a post;
With - specialisation;
St - the experience;
M - a place.

For each scale of significances of factors of weight the algorithm of account is accepted. Each algorithm is based on a hypothesis accepted during research.
Post:
The variant at which the relation of two next significances on this scale is constant (i.e. the Director of department in as much time is more significant in comparison with the branch manager, in how many the last is more significant in comparison with the Leading expert) is accepted. Function - increasing nonlinear (a geometrical progression). Significances of the factor: Deputy G eneralnogo directors - 1.0; the Director of Department - 0.7; the Branch manager - 0.45; the Leading expert - 0.30; the Expert - 0.2.
Specialisation:
Increasing convex function (logarithmic progression) is accepted. That is, a difference between «I Am responsible for process» and «I Participate in process» less, than between «was responsible for process» and «the Sign with the given process» Earlier. Significances of the factor: I Am responsible for process in given FO - 1.0; I Participate in process in given FO - 0.9; I Am responsible for process in adjacent FO - 0.7; was responsible for process in given FO - 0.45 Earlier; the Sign with the given process - 0.1.
The experience and work Place:
Considering, that these factors in the combined variant are additive, higher importance of "Place" in comparison with "Experience" has been accepted twice. Own functions - in the form of an increasing logarithmic progression. Significances of the factor «the Length of service in branch»: More than 10 years - 0.3, from 5 till 10 years - 0.25; from 2 till 5 years - 0.2; less than 2 years - 0.1
Significances of the factor «a work Place»: GD - 0.7, the Russian Federation - 0.5
For linear ranging of risks in decreasing order of the importance it is necessary to define the importance of risks (a population mean estimation). For account of the given size group estimations of importance and probability are multiplied:

After accounts of the given size for each risk, the general file of risks is ranged in decreasing order of the importance.
For creation of algorithm of definition of threshold significances, it is necessary to define criteria. From all ranzhirovannogo the list of risks allocate all risks having the importance above certain size. This size conditional enough also should be defined by exclusively possibilities of the company (physical and financial) to supply management of the given quantity of risks. However the principle of independence of algorithm from a current condition of the company is thus infringed.
If we save an independence principle it is necessary to postulate only certain threshold significance, and to select risks for management according to it, irrespective of a company condition.
If we accept, that the risks having a group estimation on importance less 2 do not cope at any significance of a group estimation of probability; the risks having an estimation of importance above 4 at any estimation of probability necessarily cope; and the risks having an estimation of importance between 3 and 4, are not subject to management only at very low significance of probability it is necessary to choose the threshold significance of the importance equal 8. Transferred above a condition will be executed when to the selected risks (the importance more than 8) all risks having simultaneously group estimation of importance above 4 and importance less 8 will be added.
According to the set threshold significances the group of risks giving the greatest investment in the total importance is allocated. To the given risks the risks which have received an estimation of importance, close to maximum (are added at the importance below threshold significance).
As a result appears ranzhirovannyj the list of the most significant risks of the company.

The list ranzhirovannyh risks with the importance estimation, generated following the results of the questioning conducted within the limits of researches by department of methodology and risks is presented in the Appendix of
Clarification of estimations of risks is made already within the limits of the quantitative analysis of risks requiring essentially big expenses of time and other resources. Therefore a key problem of the qualitative analysis besides definition prioritetnosti risks is "cutting off" of those risks which probabilities with high degree will not justify the further expenses for their studying and management of them.
The algorithm of a quantitative estimation of risks is resulted on fig. 1.4.



Symbols:
FE - functional experts. KP - control procedures.
Fig. 1.4. Algorithm of a quantitative estimation of risks (it is developed by the author)
Result of procedure of an estimation of risks is reflexion of the received integrated estimations in the register of risks of the company with possibility to range risks on importance level. Besides, upon termination of procedure of an estimation of risks, risks should be distributed between corresponding levels of management of the company and holders of risks. Then on committee meeting on risks the list of the risks which are subject to the control on most vyso is defined
The clod level of management and the limited list of risks is introduced to the Current register of risks.
On the basis of functionality it is expedient to group all risks on functional blocks (fig. 1.5.).

Fig. 1.5. The staticized structure of the register of risks on the end of 2008 in a cut of functional blocks (it is developed by the author)


From fig. 1.5. Follows, that in the company from 31 significant risks included in the Current register, a significant share it is brave it is necessary on the commercial block, further on the technical block, further on the financial block. The least share it is brave it is necessary on the account and reporting block, the safety block, the block of the general questions and cross-countries-risks.
On the basis of importance from 31 risks on a share of essential risk 6 kinds of risk (19,36 %), on a share of moderate risk - 21 risk (67,74 %), on a share of insignificant kinds of risk - 4 risks (12,90 %) are necessary.
Thus essential risks prevail in the financial block on which 66,67 % of total of essential risks are necessary. It
Testifies to that in the company necessity and a management urgency essential financial risks is very high.
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A source: Podgornaja Lubov JUrevna. FORMATION of the CONTROL SYSTEM by FINANCIAL RISKS In the TELECOMMUNICATION COMPANY. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci. Krasnodar. 2009

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