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Definition of level of risks in the basic directions of activity, key business processes and working out of strategy of reaction


Besides the risks connected with actions of a regulator, the great value in the conditions of information of economy for the companies is extreme have operational risks. To it pay attention V.V. Makarov, V.L.Gorbachev, V.M.Zheltonosov, J.O.Kolotov which indicate, that «by consideration of operational risk, as a rule, the greatest attention is given to safety issues, in particular, there is a potential threat nesanktsioniro
Bathing viewing or change of the financial information on a client's account or in an internal network. »[60, with. 173]. From this follows, that in formed corporate control systems of risks it is necessary to give special significance also to operational risks which largely influence company finance results.
In managerial process by risks it is necessary to define key business processes on kinds of activity and possible risks. So at the analysis of financial indexations and risk areas in the company during researches following directions in the current activity, essentially influencing achievement of the planned financial purposes, corporate incomes are allocated:
Rendering and advancement of "new services»;
The traffic account in the automated settlement system (ASR);
The account of accounts with the attached operators;
Rendering of a universal telecommunication service;
Control of procedures on investment activity.
In the given directions the basic business processes are allocated and key points of their control are defined, and also procedures of the control and an audit technique on each business process are developed.
As an example the scheme of revealing of the basic key points of one of business processes (fig. 2.14) is developed.
More detailed description of business processes on an example of attraction of extra means and the description of possible risks is born in Appendices To, К.1, К.2.
Diagnostics of risks in business processes is conducted on the basis of the analysis of documentary business processes of the company. At the analysis business - of processes expert possible brave events by emerge.


Fig. 2.14. An example of the description of key points of business process
(It is developed by the author)


The analysis of business process and risk revealing is displayed on following stages:
Decomposition of business processes on subprocesses in a sheaf «function - event»;
Revealing in each sheaf after realisation of function of possible risks;
Check of an urgency of a relationship of cause and effect between the revealed risk and documentary function;
Documentating of the revealed risks.
To all revealed risks identification number showing a risk accessory to certain business process is pirated. Data from the table with the revealed risks on each business process are added in a database of business processes.
As a result of diagnostics of business processes and the revealed brave events of each business process formation of the register (list) of risks of process is carried out.

The further step at formation of a control system by risks - grouping and classification of risks for their estimation and a choice of an adequate management method.
With the purposes of complex studying of risks of business processes of the company it is necessary to distribute all possible risks on various groups depending on the classification purpose.
Classification drawing up pursues some the purposes:
To make preliminary "elimination" of insignificant risks on the basis of opinions of functional experts;
To prepare a material in a convenient kind for realisation of a qualitative and quantitative estimation of risks.
Classification of risks of business processes is made on the basis of a method of expert judgements. For classification of risks in interrelation with concrete business process the table in which to each business process there will correspond the list of risks (Appendix) is offered.
Classification can be carried out with use of various approaches.
Classification by object type - allows to unite risks in a direction of a possible damage (the risks influencing change of cost or functionality of the property (property); the risks influencing change of incomes; the risks influencing staff; the risks which result of display is responsibility occurrence, for example, professional responsibility).
The purpose of this classification - to assist at an estimation of degree of influence of negative consequences of risk. Depending on classification group the technique of an estimation of degree of influence of risk gets out: either it is a direct damage, or it is loss of the missed benefit, or these are the additional expenditures connected with proceedings and occurrence of professional responsibility etc.

Classification by degree of dependence of losses (damage) from initial event - allows to evaluate interrelation of primary and secondary risks, that is influence of adverse event and its consequences on interconnected and cross-country-functional risks.
Primary risks are connected directly with adverse event, and secondary - with consequences of adverse initial event (for example, in case of risk of limitation of the financial market and capital markets, at attraction of the long-term currency credit under high percent with restrictions on preschedule settlement and availability of conditions about possibility of change of interest rates the interest risk (primary risk) is available the lender, and in the conditions of sharp growth of exchange there is an exchange risk (secondary risk)).
The purpose of this classification - not to miss from attention secondary risks (as at diagnostics of risks even skilled experts often lose sight of the losses connected with secondary display of a problem caused by risk).
Classification by level of occurrence and risk display - allows to fix risks and their influence at different levels of management (at Company level, at branch level; at level of structural division).
The purposes of this classification - to help with an estimation of probability of occurrence of risks at different levels of management and by working out of mechanisms of decrease in probability of risks (one mechanism can lower probability of occurrence of all risks entering into one group on level of occurrence).
Classification by dependence on time is carried out on two groups - static risks and dynamic risks.
The first group includes the risks which are not dependent on time, the second - risks changed in time (for example, the risk of failures depends on time owing to dependence of degree of deterioration of the equipment on time).
The purpose of this classification - to assist at an estimation of probability of occurrence of risks depending on time: probability of occurrence
Static risks does not vary in time, the probability of occurrence of the dynamic is changed. The probability of dynamic risks to measure difficult, therefore is recommended to use the integrated significance of the period, for example a business process phase.
Classification by degree of prevalence of risk is carried out on two groups - typical (mass) and specific (unique).
On typical (mass) risks, as a rule, there is a statistical information so, to evaluate them it is possible precisely enough. On specific risks it is impossible to collect statistical data, but, as a rule, a damage from them it is serious also them it is necessary to operate.
The purpose of the given classification - to orient about use of the statistical information at an estimation of probability of occurrence of risks and degree of influence of negative consequences in case of its display.
To a development cycle, the coordination and the assertion of strategy and plans of action on management of risks of business processes, definitions of necessary resources, the profound qualitative and quantitative estimation by experts with allowance for every possible influences of various factors is conducted.
So for example, by search of additional reserves of circulating assets and sources of receipts in 2006 and an estimation of risks of business processes researches have been carried out in the block of registration processes.
Necessity of the raised level of the control and management of risks in the field of tax optimisation has been caused by that level of tax risks and the risks connected with formation of the reporting, for that moment was evaluated by experts as very high and essential - about 100 million US dollar. Therefore the developed complex of actions for minimisation of tax risks provides: optimisation of organizational structure of company and registration services, transition to the uniform software, centralisation of the most brave objects of the account, deepening of specialisation in directions, methodology creation on business processes, improvement of the organisation of interaction with taxing authority and the process organisation podgo
tovki and document transfers to taxing authority. Working out and realisation of these actions has allowed to minimise essentially risk of the presented sanctions and claims from taxing authority at a stage prior to the beginning of documentary tax check that was confirmed indirectly and the sum tax donachisleny on tax checks (during 2002-2003 more than 1,1 billion rbl., during 2004-2006 about 0,3 billion rbl.).
Feature is that the company has multifilial structure, carries out bulk buyings, payments and accounts, with simultaneous distribution of objects of delivery on branches. Taking into consideration volume of turn-overs on accounts with counterparts, the risks connected with delayed compensation of the tax to an added value (VAT) - are essential. In this connection, for minimisation of the risks connected with the VAT, analytical procedures were are conducted in 2006 in three stages: definition of availability of the rests of not reimbursed VAT on the acquired material assets, works and services; definition of the settlement VAT which is not liable, proceeding from availability of the assets which have been not placed in operation and costs of the future periods; definition of the settlement not paid VAT which are not liable, proceeding from tax laws requests. The received settlement sizes, have defined a risk zone. The sum defining quantitative size of risk of derivation of circulating assets, has appeared essential (the average design value was received over 10 mln. dollars of the USA). After realisation of actions and control procedures at the first stage the tax sum to payment has been reduced more than by 4,5 million US dollar and, accordingly, there was an additional volume of available assets in the company budget. Changes have been besides, made to the list of acting control procedures and system of analytical accounting for the purpose of the further minimisation of the indicated risk.
During researches of business processes on the block of management investments had been revealed risks of investment of capital in unprofitable projects and projects with a long payback period, risks of distortion investment bjudzhe
tov, risks of deficiency of the investment budget, risks of intended infringement by staff of procedures.
Experts, including the author of research, develop offers on optimisation of business processes on investment planning and realisation of investment projects, the system of monitoring of removal of the fixed risks is entered, the expanded list of actions for the control and the analysis is offered.
In a control system of risks there are the financial risks connected with purchasing (tender, competitive) activity.
Purchasing activity of the company is regulated by Typical position about procedure of realisation of competition for choice suppliers the regional competitive commissions. According to the given position all purchases of the company under the basic nomenclature of the equipment and materials are carried out by means of realisation of the unified competitive actions. Also in the company the centres of responsibility to which functions on realisation of competitive actions are transmitted, to the conclusion of agreements and the control of their performance are generated, structures of the competitive commissions on the basic types of the purchased equipment and materials are defined.
Thus on the basis of the conducted annual analysis of all carried out purchases the nomenclature of the equipment and materials on which delivery competitive actions are initiated at level of General management of the company, and also the nomenclature of the equipment and materials on which delivery competitive actions are authorised for conducting at level of subsidiaries of a company is formed.
In each branch the competitive commissions which carry out a choice of suppliers of the equipment and materials under the confirmed nomenclature are created.
It is necessary to notice, that existing procedure of initiation and realisation of competitive actions in the company allows to minimise and level arising risks:

Risk of inadequate performance by suppliers or failure of suppliers of discharge of the obligation on prisoners with them to the agreements necessary for development of business of the company;
Risk of a choice of suppliers which owing to certain circumstances of the limited solvency and technical impossibility cannot carry out undertaken;
Risk of purchase of the goods, works, services in an overcharge;
Risk of delay of deliveries;
The risk connected with customs registration by import deliveries.
Besides this procedure allows to receive economic benefit by optimisation of the price, quality, conditions of accounts etc. and to supply a transparency of a choice of counterparts.
With the purposes of the further perfection and optimisation business - of processes in the field of purchases of the company, a regulation and the control of observance of corresponding procedures, the staticized Position «About a uniform order of realisation of competitions in the company for choice contractors, suppliers of the equipment, production, consulting, advertising and other types of service» is developed. In the given Position the share of responsibility of the Initiator of purchase for financial implications of inefficient purchases in particular increases.
Regarding perfection of management by the finance (a credit policy) experts, together with the author of research, conduct work on optimisation of a credit portfolio. The part of the short-term indebtedness is transferred in long-term by reception of long credits with a maturity three years and placings of bonded loans with a maturity four years. Re-structuring of the indebtedness against suppliers and contractors by issue of bills with a maturity is conducted 1,5 years. The mechanism of operative (daily) management is introduced by cash flows. During monitoring and testing of indicators and efficiency of business processes experts had been noted risks of falling of a credit rating, nesvoevremen
nogo carrying out of the obligations on debts, risks of growth of cost of borrowed funds. Therefore holders of risks conduct an additional job on optimisation of a credit portfolio and on transfer of the short-term indebtedness in long-term, by reception of long-term western credits. It has allowed to minimise in 2006-2007 possible risks by means of refunding of bank credits and increase in a duration of a credit portfolio. The arrangement with creditors about uniform distribution of payments to the period with 2008 for 2013 is reached.
At an estimation of risks and their consequences it is necessary to start with a comprehensible risk level, expenses for its minimisation to comprehensible level, and also from an estimation of controllability and importance, influence and probability.
Controllability of risks is evaluated on the basis of the expert approach with application of the criteria presented in table 2.1.
Table 2.1.
Criteria of controllability of risks

Degree
Controllability
(Possibilities
Influences)

Qualitative criteria

The high

The risk is in limits of sphere of the control of the company, there is enough resources, it is possible to supervise the reasons of risk and riskoobrazujushchie factors, or the company has possibility to avoid risk (failure of service, business process etc.)

Average

The risk is in limits of sphere of influence of the company, it is possible to influence the reasons of risk and riskoobrazujushchie factors, but it is impossible to avoid to the full risk, resources are limited

The low

The risk is out of sphere of influence of the company, it is practically impossible to influence the reasons of risk and riskoobrazujushchie factors, it is impossible to refuse risk (influence of a regulator, an environment and absence of sources of financing)


It is expedient to establish certain parametres of importance of risks (fig. 2.15).

The risk level comprehensible to shareholders is a measure defining level of tolerance (tolerance, propensity) shareholders of the company to risk. The risk level comprehensible to shareholders affirms company Board of directors on submission of Committee of Board of directors on audit. The risks, which level of importance are exceeded by a risk level comprehensible to shareholders, are placed for consideration Board of directors.
The managerial process control moderate risks is carried out by Committee on risks and Holders of risks.
The importance threshold for 2009 is established within 0,5 % from an annual gain of Company for the last accounting date = 100
Million rbl.
On influence on activity finance results
Essential risks> 100 million rbl.
Moderate risks from 50 million rbl. to 100 million rbl.
Insignificant risks < 50 млн.руб.
On probability of realisation of brave event High (realisation of brave event every year or more often) Average (realisation of brave event each 2-5 years)
Low (realisation of brave event each five years and are more rare)
Fig. 2.15. Parametres of importance of risks
The estimation of risks by social criterion is carried out expert by on the basis of available experience. The given criterion is used for an estimation of risks from the point of view of their influence on possibility of fulfilment by the company of government programs on maintenance with communication of the population and the organisations of regional branches in cover regions, including three groups of subscribers: spetssvjaz (3); socially significant establishments and emergency services (2); other subscribers (1). For definition of level of importance of risk by the given criterion it is used two categories of indicators:

Duration of the period of failure in service;
Territorial coverage.
Including the author of researches the technique of a quantitative estimation of the most essential risks is developed.
Reputatsionnyj the criterion assumes an estimation of risks from the point of view of their influence on reputation and image as the companies, and holding as a whole.
Influence on reputation can be expressed in the publication of the negative or positive information on the company in mass media, a press - releases etc., and also in public disclosing of such information by any other by. The estimation of risks on reputatsionnomu to criterion is made on the basis of assumptions of kinds of potential sources of disclosing of the information and scales of influence of such information on reputation of the company.
The expert opinion should be applied only in case of practical impossibility of a quantitative estimated risk on the basis of available statistical, likelihood and a mathematical apparatus.
At this stage of a choice of procedures of management risks make comparison of efficiency of various methods of effect on risk (risk avoidance, decrease in risk, risk acceptance on itself, transfers of a part or all risk to the third parties) which is finished by development of strategy of risk management. At the heart of working out of strategy of management by risks lays two indicators: level of importance of risks and degree of controllability of risks.
Strategy of reaction to risk can be the following:
Risk acceptance - strategy in which frameworks it is not provided any special actions concerning certain risk. Usually given strategy is applied in cases when the risk level before realisation of any measures on its decrease does not exceed level comprehensible to shareholders;
Warning effect - the strategy providing effect on the reasons of risk (riskoobrazujushchie factors). Usually given strategy is applied concerning risks with sufficient level of controllability;

The subsequent effect - the strategy providing effect on consequences of realisation of brave event. Usually given strategy is applied concerning the risks characterised by low level of controllability and-or low probability of realisation;
Insurance, hedging of risks, and also working out of plans of extreme actions, plans on maintenance of a continuity of business, etc.;
Failure of risk - the strategy providing the termination of activity, connected at risk. This strategy is usually used concerning the risks bearing in threat of a continuity of activity of the company and potentially exceeding a risk level comprehensible to shareholders, even after application of strategy of warning or subsequent effect.
Offers concerning strategy on management of risks are represented by holders of risks and affirm committee on risks (except insignificant risks).
Results of each stage are basic data for the subsequent stages, forming system of decision-making with a feedback that supplies as much as possible effective achievement of the purposes, allows to correct both methods of effect on risk, and plans of management of risks.
At formation of plans of measures on minimisation of risks the effect from their realisation, introduction terms, the financing and person sources, responsible for their fulfilment should be considered. Plans of measures should be necessarily confirmed holders of risks and are considered at finansovoproizvodstvennom planning.
Plans of action on management of risks should be made not less often than an once in a year and to be revised as required (but is not more rare than an once in a quarter). Thus following the results of quarterly committee meeting on risks actualisation of plans of action is conducted, expansion of the list of actions for management of risks is possible.
Plans of action on management of risks consist of separate actions. The actions transferred in plans of action on management rice
kami, should be formulated accurately, to be izmerimymi, realizable, to establish specific goals and dates of performance, to indicate executives in charge and to contain the information on necessary resources.
After realisation of all actions for risk management the estimation of residual risk (the risk evaluated in a present situation of time with allowance for of realisation of control procedures) is conducted. The estimation of residual risk is granted within the limits of consideration of results of work of the company on management of risks on committee on risks. The residual risk is represented quarterly on consideration of committee on audit of board of directors with allowance for the conducted control procedures within the limits of the report on work on management of risks.
Let's consider stages of formation of the Current register of risks with allowance for importance level on an example of risks typical for the telecommunication companies (tab. 2.2).
Table 2.2
Estimation of risks by criteria (it is made including the author)

Cost criterion:

Code
Risk

The risk name

The explanatory of a technique of an estimated risk

2.5.2.1.2

Presentation taxing authority unreasonable, from the point of view of the company, claims

The size of collection of fines in the sum over 1.0 billion rbl. Probability - 25 %.
Integrated estimation - 250 million rbl.

3.4.5.

The credit risks connected with fulfilment by the company of the obligations

The sum of obligations to the credit organisations makes more than 20 billion rbl., the amount outstanding to settlement makes an order of 10 billion rbl. Probability of approach of brave event of 25 % (once a year.) an integrated estimated risk of-1,85 billion
Rbl.

1.1.1.5.

Change of principles of state regulation of tariffs for a telecommunication service

The exception of tariffs on one item influences reduction of a gain of the company in the sum over 100 million roubles

1.2.1.1.

Increase of level of a competitiveness

Change of a share of the company in the market, accompanied by change of structure of corporate incomes creates risk of decrease in a gain, reduction of incomes of services of joining and the traffic admission, and also







Possible increase in costs on services termi - the traffic nations on a network of operators. Loss of a share of the market on 1 % can lead to loss of incomes in the sum more than 200 million rbl. the Estimation of probability of realisation of the given risk - 90 %. An integrated estimation - 180 million
Rbl.

Reputatsionnyj criterion:



Code
Risk

The risk name


The explanatory of a technique of an estimated risk

2.12.11.

Kiberterrorizm


High probability of occurrence of risk once a year because of a political situation in region, care to 10 % of the most highly remunerative clients and exhibiting of claims by them is possible

2.6.1.2.

Fluctuation of the personnel


As a result of high fluctuation of the personnel there is a risk of essential decrease in quality of represented services, failure of realisation of plans, increase in terms of fulfilment of problems


Criterion of fulfilment of social projects, standard regulation of branch

Code
Risk

The risk name

The explanatory of a technique of an estimated risk

1.1.2.4.

Updating by a regulator of terms of transition to new system and the numbering plan

Regulator normative statements (Order mininformsvjazi № 142 from 17.11.2006 about introduction "the Russian system and the numbering plan») establish requests of functionality of network infrastructure TFoP which is supplied in full only with a digital network. The given request covers all network of the company

1.1.2.6.

Failure of Federal service on supervision in sphere of mass communications, communication and cultural heritage protection in issue of the permission to operation of structures of communication

It is necessary to refuse in 2010 use CDMA of technology and to switch subscribers to other means. Failure of fulfilment of works in the conditions of insufficiency of financing of the investment program of the company can lead to loss of user's base and accordingly incomes.


Result of procedures of the control over management of risks is regular updating of the information on a course of fulfilment of plans of action on management of risks, and also acceptance on the basis of such information of necessary administrative decisions, including connected with updating and
Increase of efficiency before the confirmed plans of action on management of risks.
The choice of control procedures, or actions for minimisation of risks in this system has huge significance. During research the following scheme is developed and offered: (fig. 2.16).



Symbols:
KP - control procedures;
OMiR - department of methodology and risks.
Fig. 2.16. A choice of control procedures (it is developed including the author)
Following stage on management of risks is formation of plans on fulfilment of control procedures and sequence of definition of control procedures (fig. 2.17, 2.18).
The block diagramme of monitoring of fulfilment of control procedures also is developed for end of all cycle of the control of business processes in research within the limits of a control system of the risks, reflecting sequence of the basic stages, the list of participants and procedures carried out by them (fig. 2.19).




Budgetary units




Symbols:



KP - control procedures;
TWO - internal audit department.
Fig. 2.17. The stage contents «Formation of the plan of fulfilment of control procedures» (it is developed including the author)


OMiR, TWO, risk-manager



X




Symbols: TWO - internal audit department; SD - board of directors; OMiR - department of methodology and risks; KP - control procedures; a DB - a database.
Fig. 2.18. Sequence of definition of efficiency
Control procedures (it is developed including the author)

Department of methodology and risks, internal audit Department




Fig. 2.19. The Block diagramme of monitoring of fulfilment of control procedures (it is developed including the author)



From fig. 2.19 follows, that the basic organizational-co-ordinating and methodical role in monitoring system belongs to department of methodology and risks. Its main functions are the control over fulfilment of control procedures and an estimation of their efficiency, and also sharing in preparation of independent estimations by Board of directors, working out of offers on updating of the plan of control procedures. Thus the department of methodology and risks, together with Committee on risks influence in the direct image decision-making on that, it is expedient or not change of budgets of separate structural divisions and the basic business processes.
Monitoring system end definition of efficiency of control procedures should be.
The efficiency estimation is made by the independent body having corresponding techniques and kompetentsijami.
As an example of testing of efficiency of the acting control procedures which are carried out by internal audit, we will consider algorithm of organizational and financial aspects of the control of business processes in the field of a universal telecommunication service:
Business process - rendering of a universal telecommunication service;
The holder of business process - sanitary-and-epidemiologic service;
Level of importance of business process - 2;
The document name (the fact, event) in a control point - accounts on consumption of electric energy by the universal payphone;
Quantity indicator - kw-hour / rbl.;
The person responsible for formation of the document (realisation of the fact of event) - energetik;
Existing procedure of the control - single - the control power behind availability of the agreement with energosnabzhajushchej the organisation, a constant - the control over metre readings;

Procedure of audit existing kontrolej - examination of account on the payment of energy consumed by universal payphones, revealing of the facts of absence of accounts for electric energy;
Conclusions about availability of risks, the result requiring acceptance of measures - absence (essential decrease) consumed electric energy can testify or about nezakljuchenii agreements with energosnabzhajushchej the organisation, or to long malfunction of the universal payphone.
Key business processes available in the company are similarly described and systematised in the uniform aggregate table.
In our opinion realisation of offered procedures allows:
To reveal risks which to the greatest degree influence results of activity of the company, and to develop an effective system of actions for minimisation of such risks;
To supply realisation of complex work on management of risks on a regular basis, accurately having differentiated responsibility for approach of brave events between various directions of activity and management levels in the company;
To improve separate indicators of efficiency of activity of the company, having supplied decrease in possible brave losses and cost optimisation on the actions directed on minimisation of risks;
To raise a system effectiveness of management of the company at the expense of use of additional criteria for acceptance of administrative decisions, feedback reception about realisation of business processes of the company from key experts and chiefs of all levels;
To increase trust level to management of the company from shareholders, investors, counterparts of the company;
To supply, increase of credit and investment ratings.

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A source: Podgornaja Lubov JUrevna. FORMATION of the CONTROL SYSTEM by FINANCIAL RISKS In the TELECOMMUNICATION COMPANY. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci. Krasnodar. 2009

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