<<
>>

Ekzogennye factors. Consequences of world crisis for Russia

Hypothecary crisis in the USA has led to growth of world interest rates
(Though FRS does everything that they decreased also dollar LIBOR, for example,
Falls), to crisis of liquidity and credit compression, i.e.
it was reduced as
Crediting volume, and there was a toughening of requests to borrowers.
It has found reflexion in Russia, in reduction of building activity under new projects. Investors who considered the Russian market as perspective for realisation of investments, have taken a waiting attitude. The given situation well will affect the real estate market as will suspend bubble growth, that is will relieve us of possible crisis further.
What prospects of development of the Russian market of the real estate? It is obvious, that market development will be caused by interference of two tendencies: internal development and influence of the external factor (world crisis). For the answer to the brought attention to the question at first we will consider the internal scenario of development of processes in the real estate market, and then the scenario of development of the market of the real estate under the influence of world crisis.
It is necessary to notice, that development of processes in the markets of various cities of Russia though follows general tendencies, but does not coincide on time, therefore it is expedient to carry out the analysis in the certain regional market. So, we will consider the scenario of development of an internal cycle in the market of St.-Petersburg.
On the schedule two scenarios of development of the market of St.-Petersburg are shown: the scenario of internal development of the market and influence which was rendered on the given market by world financial crisis.
GROWTH PHASE
RECESSION PHASE

2008
T, time
Fig. 3.10. Influence of world crisis of a pas development of a current cycle in Sankt - Petersburg
At present the market is in a point And if it developed under the internal scenario the next years would reach saturation points (point DO). World financial crisis has led to credit compression and increase of interest rates. The given increase on the one hand has frozen developer activity, with other - effective demand. But, despite decrease in activity of the market, a potential demand still remains nonsaturated and exceeds the offer, i.e. there is a time shift of a saturation point.
Thus, at economy transition to a revival phase when the capital again becomes accessible and demand again becomes solvent; developer activity will be reinstated, and the real estate market again will continue the aspiration to a saturation point. Thus, under the influence of world financial crisis there was a displacement of a saturation point of the Petersburg market from point DO exactly D. That is world crisis has positively affected dynamics of the Petersburg market of the real estate, having extended its growth phase.
The analysis of the general situation shows, that at any development of a situation, it is necessary to expect reduction of inflow of foreign investments and investment activity in the market. Disinvesting will lead to competitiveness strengthening between developers on their attraction. Therefore it is necessary to give special attention to quality of objects, and more detailed analysis of a market situation of separate segments of the commercial real estate.
<< | >>
A source: Panova Anna Vladimirovna. STRUCTURAL SHIFTS of FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN the REAL ESTATE MARKET (ON the EXAMPLE of the MARKET of the HOTEL REAL ESTATE). 2009

More on topic Ekzogennye factors. Consequences of world crisis for Russia:

  1. 1. Crisis of intercommunal interaction (1963) and its consequences
  2. 1. Preconditions and consequences of crisis of the natural death in the end of XIX - the beginning of XX century
  3. the Factors causing crisis situations in a banking
  4. Factors of occurrence of crisis in the noncommercial organisations
  5. 7.3. A world economic crisis 1929–1933 gg
  6. 7.2. The economic reasons and First World War consequences
  7. 9.1. Economic consequences of the Second World War
  8. 3.2. World financial crisis as one of sources of development bank terminosistem English and Russian of languages
  9. 1.2. Investment crisis in Russia
  10. 1) the deep economic crisis with reference to criminality determination finds the expression in following factors:
  11. a legal estimation of influence of a Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization on formation of legal bases of cooperation of Russia and EU in customs sphere
  12. THE CHAPTER IV. THE INTERNATIONAL LEGAL ANALYSIS OF ACTIVITY OF THE WORLD ORGANIZATION OF PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES IN THE FIELD OF PROTECTION OF THE POPULATION AGAINST CONSEQUENCES OF APPLICATION OF THE BIOLOGICAL WEAPON.
  13. address the CHAPTER IV. The INTERNATIONAL LEGAL ANALYSIS of ACTIVITY of the WORLD ORGANIZATION of PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES In the field of PROTECTION of the POPULATION AGAINST CONSEQUENCES of APPLICATION of the BIOLOGICAL WEAPON.
  14. the Analysis of a modern condition of the noncommercial organisations to Russia, a role and a place of the crisis phenomena in their activity
  15. the Chapter I. Conditions, preconditions and factors of development of cellularcommunication in the world.
  16. 2. The factors promoting connection to the world market of high technologies
  17. 1.3 Place of Russia in the world market of high technologies
  18. the Epidemiological situation in the world and Russia
  19. 1.2.1. Medicine development in Russia in a world history context
  20. Epidemiologija a tuberculosis in HIV-infection epidemic in the world and in Russia