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THE TECHNIQUE OF THE ESTIMATION OF RISKS OF THE INVESTMENT PROJECT



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The questionnaire is filled in with the expert after detailed study business - the plan of the project and realisation of corresponding negotiations with its initiator.

1.
Industrial risk.
Table 1.
Criterion Weight Question Otv. The answer
1 Technological level of production 1.0 How you can evaluate a technological level of production? -2


-1

0
1
2
1. Very low. Complete and expensive reconstruction Is required.
2. Low. Reconstruction Is required.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. High enough.
5. Very high. Does not require any additional investments.
2 Production maintenance 3.0 How you evaluate availability of the basic sources of raw materials, materials and completing items, and also energy and a transportation network necessary for production? -2

-1

0
1
2
1. Access is very hindered, or even is impossible.
2. Access is limited. Instability is probable.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Are quite accessible.
5. Are very accessible


2. A risk of loss.
Table 2.
1. Level of development of a marketing network of production (services)
3.0








How you evaluate available marketing (distribution) network of the enterprise? -2
-1


0
1
2
1. Is absent completely.
2. Inefficient. Creation of practically new network Is required.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Effective enough.
5. Highly effective.
Can be used without what or changes and additions.
2 Competitiveness
4.0
How you evaluate competitiveness level in the considered market? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Very high.
2. High.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Moderated.
5. Is absent completely.
3 Stability of demand
4.0
How you evaluate stability of demand for production? -2

-1
0
1


2
1. It is extremely astable, unpredictable fluctuations.
2. Astable.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Rather stable, fluctuations are precisely predicted.
5. Absolutely stable.
4 Demand tendencies
3.0
How you evaluate tendencies of development of a consumer demand? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Fast decrease.
2. Slow reduction.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Slow growth.
5. Fast growth.
5
Competitiveness of production

1. Functional and consumer properties of production










2.
The price










3. Product cost







4. Service




2.0














4.0











4.0








2.0




How you evaluate reliability of production in comparison with known analogues, including the foreign?







How you evaluate level of transfer prices of production of the considered enterprise in comparison with production of competitors, including the foreign?

How you can evaluate product cost in comparison with known analogues, including the foreign?

How you evaluate the system of after-sale (guarantee) service provided by the project?





-2


-1


0
1



2



-2

-1

0
1

2





-2

-1
0
1

2


-2
-1
0
1

2




1. Considerably concede on quality of similar production.
2. Concede on quality to some product samples.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Surpasses domestic and correspond to samples of foreign production.
5. All existing product samples surpass.


1. Considerably above, than at competitors.
2. Corresponds to the prices of competitors.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. A little bit more low, than the prices of competitors.
5. Much more low, than the prices of competitors.




1. Much more exceeds known analogues.
2. Corresponds to analogues.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. A little bit more low, than at competitors.
5. Considerably below competitors.

1. The extremely inefficient.
2. Inefficient.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Rather effective.
5. Very effective


3. The risks connected with the borrower.
Table 3.
1 Reputation (image) of the enterprise or its production 2.0 How the reputation of the enterprise or manufactured production is evaluated by consumers? -2
-1

0
1


2
1. The lowest.
2. Consumers are unfamiliar with this enterprise.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Some kinds of production have good reputation.
5. The enterprise has very good image.
2 Qualification of is administrative-governing staff
And quality of management.
3.0 How you can evaluate qualification of administration of the enterprise from the point of view of ability effectively to operate project realisation? -2


-1

0
1
2
1. Very low. Are absolutely incapable to realise this project.
2. Low. Replacement of key chiefs Is required.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. High enough.
5. Very high. This management is capable to realise the project in the best way.
3 Enterprise financial position 4.0 How you evaluate an enterprise financial position? -2

-1
0
1
2
1. Close to bankruptcy or bankruptcy.
2. Bad.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Rather stable.
5. Very good.
4 Sharing of the organisation representing the project, in financing 4.0 How you evaluate the investment in financing of the organisation or the persons directly representing the project? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Very insignificant.
2. Insignificant.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Significant.
5. Very essential.
5 Subjective factors 3.0 How you evaluate the risk connected with reliability of a command, realising the project? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Very insignificant.
2. Insignificant.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Significant.
5. Very essential.

4. Objective risks.
Table 4.
1 Sociopolitical (regional) risk 2.0 How you evaluate sociopolitical risk? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Very high.
2. Rather high.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Low.
5. Very low.
2 Exchange risk 2.0 How you evaluate probability of sharp change of a rate of exchange? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Very high.
2. Rather high.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Low.
5. Very low.
3 Tax risk 2.0 How you evaluate probability of change of tax laws? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Very high.
2. Rather high.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Low.
5. Very low.
4 Natural risk 2.0 How you evaluate probability of the natural phenomena (accidents) which can lead to loss of committed facilities? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Very high.
2. Rather high.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Low.
5. Very low.
5 Criminal risk 2.0 How you evaluate risk of what effective work of the enterprise will be impossible owing to any criminal actions? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Very high.
2. Rather high.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Low.
5. Very low.


In the course of work on the questionnaire the expert chooses one of the offered answers to each of questionnaire questions.
Rezultirujushchy the indicator of risk of the project settles up by summation of products of weight factors of criteria on significance of an estimation (the chosen answer).
5. Financial risks. Their quantitative analysis should be conducted during the analysis of efficiency of the project in section of an estimation of its sensitivity. In the given section estimations of probabilities are given.
Table 5.
Criterion Weight Question Otv. The answer
1 Cost supplement 5.0 How you evaluate probability of increase in industrial costs? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Can means. To decrease.
2. Can decrease.
3. Will not be changed.

4. Can increase.

5. Can means. To increase.
2 Fall in prices 5.0 How you evaluate probability of falling of market prices for a made product? -2
-1
0
1
2
1. Can znachit.uvelichitsja.
2. Can increase.
3. It will not be changed.
4. Can decrease.
5. Can means. To decrease
3 Indicators of stability of financial circumstances 4.0 How you evaluate indicators of liquidity and solvency of the enterprise in the course of project realisation? -2

-1

0
1
2
1. The financial circumstances are the extremely astable.
2. The financial circumstances are rather stable.
3. I can not make the decision.
4. Was rather stable.
5. Was very stable.


In the course of work on the questionnaire the expert chooses one of the offered answers to each of questionnaire questions.
Rezultirujushchy the indicator of risk of the project settles up by summation of products of weight factors of criteria on significance of an estimation (the chosen answer).
The conclusion on the overall risk connected with realisation of the project, is done on the basis of the following scale of resultants of indicators.
Less - 70 - the project vysokoriskovan (2);
- 70 - 0 - the risk is essential (1.6);
0 - 70 - the risk is insignificant (1.2);
More than 70 - the risk practically is absent (1).
Further the size of investments should be it is increased by risk factor. The size received as a result characterises volume of required maintenance of the project.
On the other hand, for an estimation of the size of the maintenance offered by the initiator of the project, it is necessary to increase its prospective market value by a current ratio defined as follows.
Maintenance is absolutely liquid - 1;
Maintenance vysokolikvidno - 0.8;
Maintenance is liquid - 0.6;
Maintenance is low liquid - 0.4;
Maintenance is practically illiquid - 0.2.

The conclusion about sufficiency of maintenance under the project is done on the basis of comparison of two described above characteristics.



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A source: KRIVOSHEIN ANDREY NIKOLAEVICH. MANAGEMENT of INVESTMENTS In the SUBJECT of FEDERATION (ON the EXAMPLE of Moscow). The DISSERTATION on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci. Moscow. -199

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