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Filosofsko-pedagogical and methodological bases obrazovatelno-pedagogical prognostiki

the Education sphere essentially works on the future. Therefore any philosophical concepts, political doctrines and strategic workings out can be considered scientifically given reason and demonstrative only in the event that their maintenance reflects not only ascertaining data about a condition and mechanisms of functioning of educational objects, but also prospects of development of these objects in the future.
So the great value has prognosticheskoe a substantiation of tendencies and continuous procaking (monitoring) of changes of parametres of that social (background) environment from which these objects co-operate as the education sphere not only constantly tests influence of environment on parametres of educational activity, but also essential impact on those or other characteristics and parametres of environment itself makes.

The raised complexity, variety and original specificity of objects of forecasting in an education sphere excludes substitution high-grade, specially organised prognosticheskih researches by especially intuitive prediction. Meanwhile such type of a prediction (on type «it seems to us» and «we consider») still prevails in real to practice of political and strategic decisions in an education sphere, especially, if these intuitive opinions belong to high-ranking enough functionaries from formation and a policy (59, с.31).

prognostika is a scientific discipline about laws of working out of the forecasts which subject are laws and forecasting methods. The sphere of application prognostiki, including all without an exception profile systems of scientific knowledge, according to classification of sciences can be divided into separate areas. Therefore it is lawful to speak about economic, scientific and technical, social, military, medical, demographic, pedagogical and many other things branches prognostiki, meaning, that in each concrete case is a question of interpretation of the general methodological and theoretical appendices prognostiki in system of the knowledge making a subject of specified sciences (166, с.10).

Aktsentatsija attention to actually pedagogical aspects of educational activity, on the one hand, underlines, what exactly the pedagogical activity most directly related to a qualitative condition of an education sphere, predetermines end results any prognosticheskih researches in this sphere, and with another - gives a tribute of the developed tradition when any prognosticheskie researches in an education sphere got to a zone only one science - pedagogics and actually pedagogical prognostiki.

Integrativnaja essence obrazovatelno-pedagogical prognostiki (formation and pedagogics plus prognostika), however, at all does not mean the mechanical appendix of approaches, principles, methods and the techniques used in general prognostike or in its separate subject domains to the decision of specific obrazovatelno-pedagogical problems. It is a question of all complex of the methodological, theoretical and methodical questions, which decision promotes realisation by sciences about formation (and pedagogics including) to the major function - functions prognosticheskoj. As to prognosticheskih approaches, principles, methods and techniques their application in prognosticheskih the researches directed on working out of specific problems of a development of education, substantiations of the strategy prolonged in the future and politicians in this sphere, will appear effective only in the event that concrete features of objects of forecasting (60, s.217-219) will be to the full considered.

Obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting is only a stage (but a stage necessary and obligatory), anticipating working out of strategy of a development of education.
But it is important to consider and that circumstance, that problems of strategy and a policy in an education sphere should be in a zone of constant, continuous attention of researchers and organizers of formation. It means, that forecasting "stage" actually appears continuous, and prognosticheskaja, continuously updated information on tendencies and prospects of development both educational sphere, and the social environment should to be constantly in a zone of acceptance of those or other administrative decisions.

Despite escalating interest to questions of strategy, forecasting and forward planning in an education sphere as in our country, and abroad, «obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting» still has not received concept enough the accurate, conventional definition. Meanwhile such definition has essential methodological value as orientation of all in many respects depends on its substantial treatment prognosticheskoj activity in an education sphere (165,

с.19).

In this connection it is necessary to underline, that obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting, as well as any other kind of scientific forecasting, is not spontaneous process of a prediction of the future on the basis of simple extrapolation of the revealed tendencies, not mechanically prosummarized set of assumptions and subjective opinions, and specially organised system scientific research directed on reception of the advancing information on prospects of development of background and actually obrazovatelno-pedagogical objects for the purpose of formation politicians and strategy in a sphere of education and acceptances of optimum decisions in this sphere.

There are different levels of obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting. All depends on about what strategy and about what administrative decisions there is a speech. At level of forecasting of development of actually pedagogical and didactic objects speech mainly goes about prognosticheskom a substantiation of the purposes, maintenances, methods, means and organizational forms of training, education and development of pupils at different steps of formation. These components, and especially the purposes and the formation maintenance, represent itself as the basic objects of forecasting. In the set the specified components form pedagogicheski sorientirovannye educational systems, essentially various on the concrete filling depending on level and a formation profile. These systems should be in a zone prognosticheskogo trackings, remain opened for respective alterations and corrective amendments. Results of forecasting find the reflexion in vocational characteristics and models of graduates of educational institutions of different type, in the maintenance of curricula and programs, textbooks and uchebno-methodical grants, in developed means, methods and organizational forms of forthcoming pedagogical activity.

Besides components of the vospitatelno-educational systems differing from each other on the most essence (depending on level and a formation profile), the zone prognosticheskih researches includes also invariant, stabler in time, the formations of pedagogical position predetermining the approach to definition of the purposes extending on different links, to maintenance selection, a choice of methods, means and organizational forms of vospitatelno-educational activity. Speech in this case goes about the most pedagogical science, components of its logic structure (the bases, theories, laws and laws, principles, postulates, rules, categories and concepts, ideas, methods, the facts) which can and should represent itself as objects of forecasting (60, с.225).

Strategy of any scale and multiplane activity is a system of conceptually demonstrative prospective actions directed on the decision ierarhizirovannyh on the importance and eshelonirovannyh on time of problems, allowing desirable intermediate and end results. Such general definition is quite applicable and for understanding of essence of strategy of a development of education. Inherently, strategy reflects real in the considered phenomena and processes not so much, how many is focused on a substantiation due, standard mechanisms of activity. Certainly, without knowledge of features and the developed intrinsic characteristics of objects of strategic search it is difficult to count on the demonstrative and given reason substantiation of an expected and desirable condition of object and ways (approaches, methods) movements to this condition. For this reason strategy of a development of education - an essence a derivative and from formation philosophy, and from a policy in this sphere. Strategy as already it was marked above, tehnologiziruet philosophical and political knowledge, focuses it on consecutive, in a certain measure - algoritmizirovannoe, the decision of various socially-educational problems.

The insufficient attention to prognosticheskim to researches in an education sphere - one of the main reasons of a failure is permanent spent reforms in an education sphere which as it was already marked, carried and until now have situational character without consequences of the accepted decisions, the necessary conditions promoting achievement of expected results of introduction of those or other innovations in an education sphere (171, with. 14).

Unsatisfactory position has developed in mutual relations of the scientific organisations, called to be engaged in forecasting of a development of education, with others prognosticheskimi divisions in various branches of a science, technics, manufacture and, especially, in sotsiokulturnoj to sphere. Thereby the principle mezhdistsiplinarnosti prognosticheskih researches, while an education system on the most essence - object of forecasting of different sciences is broken.

Abroad prognosticheskimi in formation a number of the large research organisations and the centres, for example, Institute on studying and formation planning in Hamburg (in the area of UNESCO) is engaged in researches; the International bureau by training in Geneva; the Research pedagogical centre in Paris; the International Bank of reconstruction and development in Washington; Association of research of the future in the USA; Institute of the international pedagogical researches in Frankfurt am Main in Germany etc. (60, with. 27).

Prognostichesky researches in general and an education sphere in particular, both in the former USSR, and in the Russian Federation, carried and carry until now incidental, in many respects casual character, reflecting, mainly, suddenly arising ideas and the companies on carrying out of educational reforms, preparation of acts, extremely short-term competitions on drawing up of various programs of a development of education when without any regularly accumulated prognosticheskogo a reserve and a due supply with information documents of strategic value about which, however, forget to an exit of these documents to the public are at one stroke made.

Meanwhile obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting is not the single action calculated for the rigid period of anticipation, and, first of all, specially organised interdisciplinary research which should be spent continuously, regularly, with a view of reception of continuously updated information on development of educational systems. Only such approach allows to count on formation authentic prognosticheskogo a reserve co-ordinated to realities of a life, practice, allied industries of knowledge, and the main thing, with changing socially-personal educational requirements. Speech, as a matter of fact, goes about original service of tracking a development of education with the obligatory account not only internal (mainly psihologo-pedagogical) factors, but also factors external (economic, sotsiokulturnyh, industrial-technological, ecological, national-ethnic etc.).

In this sense quite pertinently to speak about original «forecasting echelons», meaning specificity short-term, intermediate term and long-term prognosticheskih researches. It is necessary to consider also, that all parties of a public life raised dynamism in the conditions of radical reorganisation economic and sotsiokulturnoj sphere does not allow to count on simple extrapolation developed (enough steady) tendencies, and reliability of forecasts and strategic workings out in process of increase in the period of anticipation essentially decreases, coming nearer only to level it is enough of general and, as a matter of fact, noncommittal assumptions. For this reason it is necessary to consider excessively long period of anticipation unreliable, and in the concept of forecasting of a development of education ideas eshelonirovanija prognosticheskih workings out should be put in pawn.

Forecasting is a process of working out of forecasts while the forecast is a result of forecasting. Clearly, that basically are possible and, obviously, working out of the concept of forecasting of a development of education, and working out of the concept of the forecast as expected result of forecasting taking into account the established period of anticipation (166, с.9) are necessary also.

Necessity of distinction specified above concepts is represented indisputable though and in the scientific environment, and in practice pretty often it is necessary to face mixture of these concepts. Meanwhile an inattention to conceptually-terminological definiteness and the more so substitution of concepts essentially deforms the approach to prognosticheskim to researches. Hardly it is lawful to develop «the forecast concept» (that is to represent a hypothetical picture of the future in this or that sphere) without preliminary proved «forecasting concepts» which urged to define the mechanism - process of reception corresponding prognoznyh data. To the full it concerns and sphere of obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting as to speak about certain prognosticheskih formation models, embedding of these models in wider economic and sotsiokulturnye structures, about the remote results of functioning raznourovnevyh educational systems out of communication with methodical questions of a substantiation corresponding prognosticheskih models (that is with forecasting process) it is impossible.

Working out of the methodological and methodical bases of forecasting in an education sphere, connected with a problematics obrazovatelno-pedagogical prognostiki - the science having obviously expressed praktiko-focused character, is represented extremely important problem, and coordination of researches in this area - a necessary condition of realisation of the interdisciplinary approach to a substantiation of strategy of development of educational systems of the most various level.

Starting point of any prognosticheskih researches - revealing and is possible more accurate characteristic of objects of forecasting. Differently, before to answer a question «how to predict?», what approaches, methods and receptions data allow to receive reliable prognosticheskie, it is necessary to define, «that, actually, it is necessary to predict?», what objects demand prognosticheskogo a substantiation, give in to forecasting and should get to a zone prognosticheskogo search.

The given methodological requirement with reference to working out of a policy and strategy of a development of education means necessity of the careful analysis of the concept "formation", it aspektnyh characteristics and the concrete objects which are subject prognosticheskomu to research and a strategic substantiation.

The four-componental structure of a category "formation" (value, system, process, result) testifies to necessity:

- The differentiated approach to the organisation prognosticheskih researches, to a choice of methods and techniques of reception necessary prognosticheskoj information taking into account specificity of concrete objects of forecasting;

- Carrying out interdisciplinary prognosticheskih researches as on the most essence obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting should be joined"with prognosticheskimi researches in other areas - economy, sociology, a demography, ecology, psychology, sotsiokulturnoj sphere, various branches of a science, technics, manufacture etc.;

- Definitions of a target orientation of forecasts in an education sphere, allocation of those objects which demand and really give in to forecasting to use received prognosticheskie data for working out more the general (for example, social and economic, sotsiokulturnyh) or, on the contrary, more detailed (for example, didactic, educational, etc.) forecasts taking into account their natural hierarchy (60, с.28).

Detailed ordering and profound consideration of various problems on all character, defining prospects of a development of education and demanding for the decision of the organisation corresponding prognosticheskih researches of a strategic orientation, represent doubtless theoretical and practical interest and should become object of carefully scientific substantiation in the course of working out of strategy of educational activity. However it is necessary to reckon with obvious complexity and labour input of this problem on which successful decision the main thing - definition priority in many respects depends, proryvnyh the directions predetermining basic transformations not only in educational sphere, but also in all system of spiritual, moral, cultural and economic revival of Russia.

From the point of view of the purposes and problems of strategic researches, special value is got by the following problematics of the interdisciplinary forecasting directly connected with features designated above of objects of actually educational character:

- The analysis of an existing condition and prospects of a development of education as complete system of vospitatelno-educational institutions and sphere of differentiation of educational services in aspect of realisation by them lichnostno-creating (mentaleformirujushchih), social and economic and sotsiokulturnyh functions; revealing of problems and contradictions in different links of this system of continuous formation (or problems which call into question possibility of use of the category "system" with reference to existing components of formation); Researches of the objective and subjective factors interfering interosculation of formation and culture, deforming most important task integrally inherent in formation - spiritual, moral development of the person, formation or correction of the mental bases of formation and development human obshchnostej, inheritance and progressive, creative transformation of social experience of the person, a cultural-historical heritage of society and a civilisation as a whole;

- Research of mechanisms of "embedding" of an education system in whole and its separate links in sotsiokulturnuju society sphere; special value thus gets interdisciplinary prognostichesky the analysis tse-lepolaganija and standardization in educational activity, research of ways and methods of a humanisation and gumanitarizatsii educational systems, their democratisation, differentiation and variatizatsii; maintenance of harmony of values of formation in their state, public and personal understanding, prevention of unilateral adaptation of an education sphere only to inquiries of the state without actual and perspective educational requirements of all levels of population of the country, each person, or, on the contrary, an unlimited individualization of formation without the general strategic priorities of development of the person, society, a civilisation);

- Search of ways, methods and means of increase of prestige of formation; research of possibilities external (economic and moral) and internal (psihologo-pedagogical) stimulation and motivation of the doctrine, increase of prestige of knowledge, professional competence, wide erudition and culture of the person; prognosticheskaja the characteristic of the new educational structures, new types of educational institutions, informal educational institutions, including flexible and dynamical structures of improvement of professional skill and retraining of experts and workers of various qualification and a profile, formation and self-education of adults taking into account dynamics of structure of employment, population shift, change of personal educational interests and requirements, expansions of sphere of the educational services corresponding to these requirements; a substantiation of system of certification of educational institutions of different type taking into account the accepted standards of educational activity;

- Studying of the social, economic and psihologo-pedagogical factors promoting vocational counselling of pupils, their adaptation to sphere of the future activity fullest of vital self-realisation of each person according to its individual interests and abilities;

- prognosticheskoe a substantiation of is substantial-remedial components of didactic systems, first of all, forecasting of the purposes and the formation maintenance at different steps, maintenance of its continuity in consecutive formation of literacy (the general and functional), the general erudition, professional competence, culture, mental characteristics of the person; the specified problematics concerns, mainly, to actually pedagogical and didactic prognostike;

- Research of ways of increase of efficiency of pedagogical process on the basis of its basic reorientation: from mainly executive, reproductive activity of pupils - to prevalence of the creative, search beginning at all stages of educational process; from rigid unification, uniformity of the purposes, the maintenance, methods, means and organizational forms of education, training and development - to an individualization and differentiation of uchebno-informative activity of pupils; from monoideologizatsii all components of educational process - to ideological pluralism, a freedom in choosing of a vital position, initial principles of outlook and belief, spiritual formation and development; from regular disbalansa texnocratic and humanitarian reference points and priorities - to harmony prirodosoobraznoj educational and uchebno-informative vzaimodejatelnosti teachers and pupils;

- Studying of the historical and logic bases of formation of various educational systems as in Russia, and abroad with a view of use prognosticheski expedient experience in interests of development of a Russian education; search of ways and realisation methods prognosticheskih functions of history of formation and comparative pedagogics;

- Studying and prognosticheskaja an estimation of efficiency of the organisation local and complex (system, interdisciplinary) researches in an education sphere, uses of effective campaigns, methods and techniques of a scientific substantiation of prospects of development of an education sphere in whole and separate educational systems taking into account hierarchy of varying values and the purposes of educational activity;

- System studying and prognosticheskoe a substantiation of the interconnected factors of complex maintenance of development of educational systems (financial, material, personnel, legal, scientifically-methodical, information) as necessary condition of carrying out of transformations and reforms in an education sphere, an effective utilisation and distribution of innovative practical experience and theoretical obrazovatelno-pedagogical innovations (60, 30-32).

Defining objects prognosticheskih researches in aspect of interrelations actually educational, social and economic and sotsiokulturnogo forecasting, it is necessary to underline necessity of accompanying studying prognosticheskogo a background on which are formed and realised a policy and strategy in an education sphere.

In existing practice of obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting this axiomatic position actually is not considered. As a result formation is quite often considered as a certain local, independently functioning area to which factors economic, social, cultural-historical, ecological, scientific and technical, industrial-technological, etc. character have only mediated, indirect relation. Such approach - a principal cause of an inadmissible separation of formation from multidifficult realities of a life, the reason of pretentiousness and lozungovosti many actually educational and pedagogical reforms, innovations and concepts, disabled on the most essence, since the moment of their declaration.

In itself promotion of populist attractive slogans and the declarations which have been not supported with the accurate analysis of external and internal conditions of their realisation, is in advance doomed to a failure. Without due, prognosticheski the demonstrative mechanism of realisation (resource maintenance), synchronised on time with prospective transformations, any the philosopher-sko-educational of the concept, political doctrines, long-term strategy and programs appear deadborn. For this reason methodologically it is the extremely important to carry out at an initial stage of forecasting predprognoznuju orientation and the interdisciplinary analysis prognosticheskogo a background, allowing to judge the possibility of realisation of those or others prognosticheskih concepts, ideas, reforms and innovations and to plan ways of their carrying out to a life taking into account the possible obstacles, braking factors.

Essential value thus gets not only revealing of objective contradictions and the difficulties constraining progressive development sotsiokulturnoj and educational sphere. Not the smaller regressive role is played also by subjective factors - interests and acts of separate persons and groups which because of the incompetence, stagnancy, egoism and unconscientiousness the extremely negative impact on formation and carrying out during a life of the planned transformations make.

The treatment of obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting as specially organised system (complex) research excludes reception and the more so use any prognosticheskih data without preliminary spent scientific researches. Their full cycle assumes consecutive realisation of all stages inherent in originally scientific search;

- Studying of a problem situation in the theory and practice;

- The object and object of research analysis;

- Statement of the purposes and concrete definition of research problems;

- Promotion of hypotheses; a substantiation of the most rational approach to researches;

- Choice of methods, receptions and the procedures possessing necessary prognosticheskim in potential;

- The organisation of skilled-experimental check of hypotheses and verification of results of research;

- Formulation of theoretical conclusions and practical recommendations.

Such is a conceptual basis of the approach to forecasting as education system developments as a whole, and its separate links and components, including and questions of interrelation of formation and an environment.

Unfortunately, in the developed practice specified above position are considered far not always and not completely, and put forward prognosticheskie judgements quite often have frankly subjective character, not being supported with results of the spent scientific researches. Are not excluded and excessively overestimated requirements to productivity prognosticheskogo search, leaders actually to substitution of its functions which consist at all in that with exhaustive completeness and accuracy to predict svershenie those or other events in an education sphere, and in promoting acceptance of optimum administrative decisions on the basis of in due time presented advancing information about possible (always in bolshej or a smaller measure probable) perspective changes in development of predicted objects, dynamics prognosticheskogo a background, means of achievement of expected and desirable results, prevention of the negative phenomena and processes.

Thus, the first and a major principle of obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting should consider a principle research dokazatelnosti undertaken prognoznyh workings out (166, с.11).

It is rather important to notice, that received as a result prognosticheskih researches the advancing information acts as the means allowing not only to expect possible changes in the long-term future in the organisation, structure and the maintenance of obrazovatelno-pedagogical activity, but also purposefully to go to predicted (always in certain degree - idealizirovannym) to conditions of optimum performance of educational systems to introduce as far as possible necessary corrective amendments in an education sphere already today. This circumstance in a solving measure justifies prognostichesky the approach to researches of questions of a development of education, allows to translate the work organisation on obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting from area of good wishes and theoretical abstraction in area of practical activities of researchers, and results of forecasting to use for operative reorganisation of work of modern educational institutions of different type.

As laws and laws of working out of the forecasts, studied prognostikoj, still far are not learnt and, anyway, do not allow to lean with due reliability against corresponding objective knowledge of most general natural bases prognosticheskoj the activity, essential value gets knowledge of principles already approved in practice, approaches and organisation methods prognoznyh workings out in an education sphere.

The methodological knowledge, irrespective of hierarchical level of its consideration is known, that, acts as knowledge of expedient activity in this or that subject domain leading finally to optimum, most productive results.

In this sense it is possible to characterise concept «a methodological principle» as supervising norm of the activity directed on achievement of objects in view in the theory and practice. With reference to forecasting of a development of education the concept can be defined «a methodological principle» as scientifically proved supervising norm (the instruction, the recommendation) prognosticheskoj the activity directed on reception of the advancing information about possible (or necessary) functioning of investigated obrazovatelno-pedagogical objects in set prognoznom the period for the purpose of optimisation of such functioning (166, с.10).

Having defined concept «a methodological principle» with reference to the specific activity connected with prognosticheskimi by researches in formation, it is necessary to make the following step - to reveal the possible list of such principles and to give their substantial treatment. The decision of this problem demands the preliminary analysis of some concepts and the categories connected with specificity prognosticheskoj of activity in an education sphere.

Let's note, first of all, that in the definition of concept resulted above «a methodological principle» it is necessary to explain the sense put in concepts "optimum performance", «an obrazovatelno-pedagogical objective» and «prognoznyj the period» (165, s.7-9).

In a broad sense as optimisation understand process of a choice of the best for the given conditions of a variant of the decision of any problem. Accordingly, educational (in a broad sense) activity can understand scientifically proved choice and realisation of the best as optimisation for the given conditions of a variant of teaching and educational, administrative and research work in an education sphere, from the point of view of achievement of objects in view and problems and rationality of expenses of time and other resources (financial, personnel, material, information etc.).

It is necessary to understand its such condition which is desirable as optimum performance of obrazovatelno-pedagogical object and it is achievable in set prognoznom the period, i.e. the period of anticipation corresponding prognosticheskih and strategic workings out.

Specificity of representations about an optimality of functioning of obrazovatelno-pedagogical objects essentially depends on features of the object, and also from developed on level of an existing paradigm of sights at is standard set possibilities of the organisation of the most productive educational activity.

In turn, any object of obrazovatelno-pedagogical activity in most general view can be defined as a subject domain of the obrazovatelno-pedagogical validity on which process of scientific knowledge and transformation to theories and the practice is directed, promoting the permission of those or other contradictions constraining progressive development of object. Certainly, speech in this case, first of all, goes about real, instead of about the speculative, far-fetched contradictions especially connected with especially ideological criteria.

That movement process in any sphere of a public life is accompanied by overcoming of contradictions, - an axiom. But it only underlines, that without the special scientific researches directed on knowledge and special prognosticheskuju an estimation of these contradictions, and also on a substantiation of mechanisms of their overcoming, any forecasting it is impossible, as working out of strategy of development of those or other objects and the phenomena is impossible also. Apparently, this fact has essential value and should be reflected in a methodological principle which it is conditionally possible to name a principle of revealing of contradictions in functioning of empirically observable and theoretically studied objects of prognozno-strategic researches.

As it was already marked, prognozno-strategic workings out whatever that in an education sphere were impossible without accurate definition of essence, the status, features of objects of such workings out. Knowledge of object can be expressed in the form of the exact description of the facts, in the form of hypotheses, laws or theories, but in any case demands of the maximum sciences should be made to this knowledge for the given level of development about formation of objectivity, reliability and accuracy. The specified position has essential methodological value as it, on the one hand, demands still prior to the beginning prognosticheskogo research to carry out the careful theoretical analysis of essence of predicted object, and with another - specifies in necessity to adhere at all investigation phases of uniformity in used the kategorialno-conceptual device and terminology.

The resulted requirement gets a special urgency if to consider complex obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting complex, system character of research activity, necessity of attraction to interdisciplinary researches of experts of the different profile having some difficulties with use and interpretation of corresponding obrazovatelno-pedagogical terminology. Therefore the given requirement gets character of a methodological principle. We name it conditionally principle of conceptually-terminological uniformity and accuracy though, in essence, the maintenance of the given principle is wider than its name as speech should go not only about streamlining of the used dictionary of terms, but also about obligatory preliminary revealing of essence and features of functioning of considered objects.

Basic feature of objects of prognozno-strategic researches in formation is their complexity and hierarchical sopodchinennost. This feature reflects difficult character of functioning of complete educational systems with their interrelations as on a vertical (on level), and across (on a profile), dependence on set of external (background) and internal factors. It testifies also basic necessity of complete, system and complex approaches to prognosticheskomu to a substantiation in an ideal of all interconnected components of formation as big macrosystem.

Such approach assumes rigid enough coordination private (local) prognosticheskih researches, their orientation not only to intermediate, important in itself, concrete results, but also to results final, "working" on a development of education as a whole. The abundance of unresolved questions, blanks and "bottlenecks" in the theory and practice of educational activity objectively generates set local, including prognosticheskih, the researches which frequently have been not united by an ultimate goal and the general research plan. Such researches can lead to separate successes, promote the decision of private questions. However their results carry, as a rule, "local" character, appear suitable only for strictly outlined circle of the phenomena and appreciably depreciate at use in formed system of knowledge, especially in changing conditions. Therefore the especial attention should be given system prognozno-strategic researches in an education sphere, to use of the complex, programmno-target approach to such researches.

Resulted above a reason and the requirement give the bases to designate two more workings out of strategy of a development of education closely connected among themselves a methodological principle: a principle of complete consideration of object of prognozno-strategic researches (substantial aspect) and a principle of the system, complex approach to prognosticheskomu to a substantiation of all components of predicted educational systems (remedial aspect) (60, с.35).

Passing to time parametres of working out of strategy of a development of education, it is necessary to stop, first of all, on one of the most important concepts prognostiki - «prognoznyj the period» or «the period of anticipation of the forecast». Official terminology on prognostike treats the given concepts, as a time interval from the present in the future on which the forecast is developed.

Obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasts at all specificity cannot be developed out of system of time parametres, the instructions on which in each concrete case allow to concentrate attention to prospective total elapsed time of realisation of those or others prognosticheskih judgements.

Marking this fact, it is necessary at the same time to underline again, that the obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting previous and accompanying acceptance of strategic decisions in an education sphere, - not isolated research action focused on a disposable substantiation of those or other administrative actions. It should be spent continuously, regularly, owing to the continuous changes occurring both in external in relation to an education sphere to environment, and in the most educational sphere. Unfortunately, such regular prognozno-strategic researches while actually are not spent, than and absence necessary prognosticheskogo a reserve (that is preliminary received with that end in view prognosticheskoj information) in the theory and practice of working out of strategy of a development of education speaks.

The methodological principle of a continuity obrazovatelnopedagogicheskogo forecasting, undoubtedly, should serve as the important reference point in the organisation of researches of the strategic character previous decision-making in an education sphere. This principle dictates necessity of the organisation of constantly operating service of obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting - original service of tracking dynamics external (social and economic and sotsiokulturnoj) and the internal (mainly psihologo-pedagogical) environment determining a development of education in all it aspektnoj to reality and integrity.

Underlining importance continuous «prognosticheskogo» strategic researches in formation, it is necessary to notice support, that only such by it is possible to overcome in a certain measure quality integrally inherent in formation - raised inertsionnost, delay in relation to dynamical changes in the external and internal environment.

Generally speaking, inertsionnost and so necessary stability of educational sphere connected with it - at all defect. To difficultly itself to present, that those or other educational processes with speed of "homing" adapted to difficultly predicted spasmodic changes in a life modern and the more so future dynamical society.

Raised inertsionnost education spheres, its inability to react to essential changes in society, sensitivity loss to becoming ripe tendencies and absence due prognosticheskogo potential in dinamizatsii all components of educational activity are fraught with loss by formation of the is active-converting function in society, dooms her to stagnation and recourse, on unenviable destiny to trudge "at the tail-end" the events occurring in a society. Therefore overcoming raised inertsionnosti has not only actually educational, but also obvious social value.

In itself, even the most reliable prognosticheskoe the substantiation spent regularly and continuously, yet does not guarantee an optimality of accepted strategic decisions, and only is the necessary precondition for their acceptance. It is quite clear, that in view of mnogofaktornosti and exclusive complexity of obrazovatelno-pedagogical realities any prognosticheskie the judgements which are put forward on the basis of spent researches, will be variativnymi.

One more methodological principle - a principle of a collective substantiation of strategic decisions in an education sphere, excluding voluntarism individual nachalstvennyh instructions and impulsive changes of an educational policy in society and focusing process of working out and updating of such policy in the plan not so much state, how many collective public work and examination.

Prognozno-strategic workings out in an education sphere on the most essence are focused on widely understood practice. Therefore in the decision of various problems of obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting special value gets careful studying, diagnosing and theoretical judgement of the saved up experience (as advanced, innovative, and negative, erroneous) realisations of those or other educational strategy, projects and programs.

Experience studying, formation of empirical basis of acceptance of any administrative decisions - a primary stage of any prognozno-strategic researches

Increase of reliability of obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasts probably only on the basis of the system, complex approach to use of methods supplementing each other prognosticheskih researches and use of skilled-experimental techniques of verification of those or others aspect th of results of prognozno-strategic workings out.

As methods of prognozno-strategic researches in physical training sphere can be used as traditional methods of researches (supervision, the documentation analysis, obrazovatelno-pedagogical experiment, etc.), and the specific research methods possessing raised prognosticheskimi possibilities: methods of extrapolation of tendencies, modelling and expert estimations in their diversified variants.

These methods allow the most economic to receive by versatile prognosticheskuju the information, in certain degree to compensate absence or insufficiency of the system, complex researches calculated on attraction of experts of a different profile, in common solving problems of a scientific substantiation of development of educational systems.

Be quite clear, however, that reliability of results of prognozno-strategic researches in physical training sphere cannot is provided by itself only at the expense of use of true methodological approaches, principles and methods of spent researches. Verification of results of forecasting in physical training sphere - the difficult complex problem demanding realisation developed in obrazovatelno-pedagogical prognostike of a technique of skilled-experimental forecasting.

The essence of this technique consists in consecutive realisation of three basic stages prognosticheskoj activity. The first stage is connected with prognosticheskim modelling of a condition of investigated object. At this stage results multiplane prognosticheskih researches are generalised and represented in the form of the certain ideal object meeting perspective personal and public requirements to educational institutions of different type.

Further, at the second stage real "samples" of corresponding objects undertake and concrete approbation of their possibilities in practice is spent. At this stage theoretical models are transformed to models skilled-experimental with their subsequent estimation in real obrazovatelno-pedagogical activity. During skilled-experimental approbation there is a natural updating of the offered models, their enrichment and detailed elaboration, and the model proves to be true or denied by practice which at all locality and the limitation, caused by frameworks of skilled-experimental work, can serve as objective criterion of the validity (or lozhnosti) put forward prognosticheskih judgements.

At last, at the third stage there is a definitive completion of theoretical model and are developed prognosticheskie recommendations which can be extended to all class of the same objects which are subject prognosticheskim to researches.

Considered trehetapnaja the structure of skilled-experimental forecasting, unfortunately, and itself still remains only model... The main component of this structure - the second, connected with construction of models-samples for carrying out of practical work with them Till now "revolves". Still on a paper there are projects of the higher military institutions of new type. Realisation prognosticheskih projects of educational systems in other links of formation is so problematic.

More advanced there was a working out of models of graduates of educational institutions of different type, and also skilled-experimental curricula, programs and textbooks.

The short characteristic of some approaches led above to obrazovatelno-pedagogical forecasting, principles and organisation and carrying out methods prognosticheskih researches and categories corresponding to them, search and which substantiation, undoubtedly, can and should be continued in the subsequent teoretiko-methodological and applied researches, creates certain preconditions for construction original «kategorialnogo a skeleton» theories of prognozno-strategic researches in formation.
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A source: Andreev A.N.. Optimisation of pedagogical process on physical training of military aviation-engineering HIGH SCHOOL. 2005

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