<<
>>

change of structure of real GNP e poreformennyj the period

Let's continue the analysis of the formula of M.Fridmana of M - At

The modern Russian validity. Exarticulation from needva a component:

M and U.Vzaimosvjaz sredne golovyh money growth rates and real BI1П has found reflexion in monetaristskom a principle targetirovanija: «osudarstvo, wishing to save a stable price level, should support money growth rate at level of average growth rates realnoju GNP (3 % on universal standards).

Basically it is quite obvious, chju inflations manage to be avoided, if nominal and real streams coincide. The same request is concluded and in one of the basic macroeconomic identities: the sum of yens of the goods konechnog about consumption should be equal to the sum of incomes of physical persons, or

I Pi h Qi = I At j h Vj;

(In other edition U (e+vHn) = I (v »-m) + ll (v+m)).

Trouble, however, in that. That it is possible to observe and and requests and to have inflation. It is possible to pay to workers in strict conformity with really created product (those. In strict conformity with labour efficiency), and nevertheless to generate a redundant money supply in economy as a whole. So, if in structure of a national economy I division exceeds critical weight equality of nominal and real streams is not observed:

Hi h Qi Z At і h Vj:

(Fault of edition ІІ (eignp) * l (v-i p і)* ll (v chp ».

(We will remind, that from a problem of accumulation we temporarily abstract).

About the weighted structure of economy of Russia speech already went. Whether І Іроисходят positive shifts in a transition period, whether specific weight of I division decreases? We will address to tab. 2.2.1.

Table 2.2.1.

Gross national product structure (in %) for 1990 of the countries of "the big seven» and России*

1

1

1

[Average significance for | 1 with Іран «the big

The seven »

| Russia
Rural, wood economy, 2.54 ’ “ 17.lT)
oho that, the fisher tvo
Extracting, processing 27,70 58.90
The industry, power supply. і , І

і 1

gazovodosnabzhen ie 1 I 1

і

Building ! 5.73 9,80 — "
Wholesale and retail trade. 1 [14.16 4.70

I

Restaurants and hotels 1 I і 1
Transport, storage facilities, і igob 1 10,00
Communication 1 і,
Finance, insurance of the immovable , 19.16 ~0.80
Property, business services and 1 Ї 1

Municipal, public 24,66 | 15,50

And personal services І

_________________________ і I

programma transformation of technological structure of economy of Russia.

TH. 1994; Radaev V.V., Бузі alii L.V.transitional econom. - M. 1995.-S.75.

For six has laid down a share of extracting branches in the industry has increased from 15,5 % to 25,1 %, and processing - has decreased according to £4,5 % to 74,9 %. If in 1990 the mechanical engineering (20.1 %), in 1996 - a fuel industry - 21,9 % was the basic branch. (As is known, from experience of the industrial countries, the share of extracting branches tends to falling. So, in the USA the share of extracting branches in GNP makes no more than 1,6 %).

Dynamics of industrial production on a fixed base (gabl. 2.2.2) shows significant slump in production in branches of final appointment - light industry.

Table 2.2.2.

Dynamics of industrial production (in %%, to yens of 1995) *

g 1990 1 G 19V? | 1995

і osg ~

П997-1

_ ju її -

Vseju the industry 100 100
Electric power industry 8.0 10.7 j 12.5 13,8
■ Fuel 12.4 14J j 16,6 17.7
Ferrous metallurgy

і ' |

~ ”8.2" ^ 7.8, 9,3 9,8
Nonferrous machine industry 1 6.2 5 • ' _ і 6,6 ' 6.8
і Chemistry and petrochemistry (8.0 7 e

і

7/S "7,5" “
j Mechanical engineering j 22.6 22,0 1 18.1 17,2

і ■.

Wood,

derevoobrabatyvajushchaja

The pulp-and-paper

1 6.1

І

5.7] 5,2 4,6 1

і

і

Building materials - z? — [ 4,9 4.0;
1 Easy ~7.0 5.0 ’

1

2.5 1.9 і

1

The food 12.0

1

, 2., 12,1

і

і ’ 2!

1 ______ J

^sostavleno according to Goskomstat of the Russian Federation.

Growth of extracting branches in industrial production structure in WINES - a basis of inflationary process on two circumstances. First, employment grows in these branches, that at rather high level of the salary in the given sectors rupture between the sum of the prices of the goods of final consumption and the sum of incomes of physical persons increases. So, above an average level work in such branches, as electric power industry, a fuel industry and first of all gas, and also in building, on transport, in sphere of crediting, insurance and in the device of controls is traditionally paid.

Below the average level op. і ачпкаеіея work in.cheskoj the industries, wood, branches of social sphere. Disproportions in payment sphere tab. 2.2.3 testifies.

Table 2.2.3.

Monthly average added zarabot naja a payment on the basic branches of economy (in % to average across Russia) *

The industry As a whole | I 1990

767

1992

118------1

1994 і

106

1

І 1996 і
, 116

1

Electric power industry 121 221 203 j 1201;
j Fuel 148 290

1

1

231 і-? 4 __ 1
Including, ідзовая 183 429 j 433 372
Agriculture 95 67 50 46
Transport 115 146

і

156 141
Public health services 67 j 66 1 77 70
It is formed not 67 61 71 64
Culture and art 62 і 52 62 62
Science 116 1 64

1

' 77

1 _______

81
Crediting, finance and

Insurance

135 204

1

215 192 ^ '
The device of controls 120 ! 94

' і

129

і

120

‘ economy Questions.-1998.-N1.-S.78.

In-ptoryh, the thermal power station and raw sector introduce the large investment in formation of the basic indicators of Russia (30 % in total amount of an industrial output of 1996), supplying 68 % of tax revenues in госбюджет1. Because of increase in an incidence of taxation there is a rise in prices of production of raw sector and thermal power station and on a chain vosproizvodstvennyh processes covers end production consumers. As is known, it generates the phenomenon known in an economic theory as inflation of costs.

For all manufacturing industry, agriculture, trade, services, municipal хозяйсіва original disaster became the last years impetuous digs domestic prices for production of natural monopolies, before vseju on the electric power, petroleum and petroleum, gas, a telecommunication service, transport garifov. Domestic prices for these resources, having reached at an initial stage of reforms of world level and by that having liquidated the long artificial backlog, in further but a number of items considerably (in 1,5 times and more) have exceeded world level. Their relative increase now proceeds: growth of internal foams on production of natural monopolies in days of reforms in 3 times has exceeded a rise in prices for all other kinds of production in стране*.

Such branches as a manufacturing industry, agriculture function today only thanks to that I infringe і the established financial rules. Similar infringements include defaults of payment to suppliers and the budget, indebtedness growth on payment zaraboshoj payments, barters and other negative phenomena. Price pressure and export orientation are main displays of self-sufficiency of branches toplivno - a power complex.

The general sprosovye the restrictions which have arisen as result of inflation, I force! To search for external directions of sales not only for manufacturers of power resources, but also representatives of many other things of branches. Arises si tuatsija when in the presence of a potential demand for production of the enterprise it terminates to make production answering to such demand and it is switched (when it probably) to production deliveries for

‘ For example. 9 сіруЕТчпен on нсфіь идіз ііі is_an/shot 55°о. On мсфіаіролч uu 55 65 ’ «. і ui 52? An island? Воп|хкы Ж0Н0МИМ1 lq7-V4-S.7 *>

Boundary. The enterprise reconstructs not only range, but also technology. Gradually it more and more изолируеіея from the national economic and technological environment also becomes a world economy enclave in the Russian territory. Mass rupture of internal links and occurrence of mixed enclaves creates effect of scattered economy.

Possessing относиіельно in small industrial potential (10 % of the taken, 20 % of funds), the export-focused sector supplies about half of trade turnover, 36 % of investments and almost third of tax payments. Internally focused sector e the basic part of the taken 02 %) bears the basic costs. In connection with the low! Competitive production. Behind it significant tax load is saved, supplying 30-40 % of taxes of sphere of production of goods. The economic load incommensurable with their financial and arbitrariness is assigned to each of two sectors! vennymi possibilities. Any of them has no dos that ї internal possibilities for self-reproduction. The income remaining in each in of them after a payment and tax payments does not suffice for investments into the basic and a working capital. Relations between these two sectors have acquired disputed character: io to a measure of rapprochement internal and the world prices and deepening

Economic recession struggle of "two economy” for access to resources, for managing conditions (the politician of a rate of exchange) and amplifies and.

Problems, in shikajushchie as a result of price disproportions (dispariteta) the prices, in world нракіике are decided by redistribution of redundant incomes, in particular. By withdrawal of the rent making price. But withdrawal of the differential rent, as a rule, not to identically high taxation rentonosnoj production, extended in poreformennyj the period in Russia. Practice of the taxation of highly profitable branches speaks about their exclusive position, than about withdrawal of the rent having other economic-legal basis without delay.

In a usual market situation rent withdrawal is directed on alignment a condition hozjajs gvovanija the enterprises rentonosnoj to branch, instead of on deepening dispariteta the prices, hindering managing of all other links of a national economy: withdrawal of the differential rent of energo-raw branches should not generate high costs and a low added value of the branches consuming production of manufacturers of primary sector of economy.

World experience, in jum number domestic, allows to formulate ways of disposal of negative consequences of practice of liberalisation of the prices in favour of energo-raw branches.

First, the essence of an equivalent interbranch exchange consists in that. That the businessman of any branch at average (normal) production conditions would have a gain equal to production costs plus a normal profit on the expended capital. Therefore the system of the rent taxation and grants should be constructed so that to level sredneotraslevuju rate of return.

Secondly, the monopolism - the market economy factor, allowing to be kept in a profitable part of economy by not competitive means. For struggle against natural monopolies hardly it is necessary to grant the pricing rights proshvoditeljam rentonosnoj production (otherwise inflation process will go continuously/. In recent times this problem was decided by practice of wholesale prices - distinguished a wholesale price of the enterprise and an industry wholesale price. Two kinds it of the fifth prices allowed to differentiate the prices for the enterprises - manufacturers and at the same time to have uniform prices for the enterprises of consumers. For natural monopolies this practice could be saved.

In poreformennyj the period uponзошла liberalisation not only the prices, but also the interest rate. There was it in such a manner that here some years successively interest rates (the money market rate) considerably exceed profitability flax nogo productions is washed out. Abundantly clear, that if credit rates to final borrowers fall level of 100 % annual, and a profitability average level in the industry - to 10-20 %. That about any credit boom (even under replenishment of circulating assets for current activity) to speak it is necessary nanosecond.

The in itself fact of the high interest rate but to comparison with profitability means a mismatch of nominal and real streams in economy and is the additional tool of redistribution of money according to laws of the criminal market. (To the criminal capital not market methods of assignment of riches of the country by use of force of the power, corruption, blackmail, direct robbery) are widely accessible.

Complexity of a situation consists that these new deformations have arisen as stratification on deformations old (backlog of investment mechanical engineering, a consumer sector) and in any sense are their generation. To eliminate the reasons generating high costs and a low added value, that is the reasons which have caused at the new prices recession and stagnation of production, it is possible only by system of the measures directed, on the one hand, on change of structure of a national economy by market methods, that is by improvement helovy managing (maintenance of conditions of accumulation of resources for production modernisation), on the other hand, is measures on removal of negative consequences of existence of monopolism in primary sector of economy and introduction in economic practice of system of normal rent relations.

2.3. Consequences of liberalisation of the prices

Let's continue the analysis, facing from trays of the formula of M.Fridmena. We will address to interrelation of two following components of the formula: the M and Re, and in wider plan is reversible to liberalisation of nominal sizes.

Z*-.

As is known, the M formula ~ At ♦ Re represents updating of the formula of M h V = R h Q. Written down in the tempo form and consequently, assumes initial clearing of the prices, or their liberalisation. This measure should give the system of the prices defined by a supply and demand, that is should dag the equilibrium prices. Ejugo nanosecond has occurred. The explanation of the reasons of absence zhelaemoju consequences and a substantiation of logic of research of the given paragraph is reflected by the scheme possessed on the following page.

2.3.1. Differentiation price proportions of the domestic goods.

One of alphabetical methods of struggle against inflation - free prices. The logic follows from inflation submission as purely monetary phenomenon. Sang V and Q are neutral to количесіву a money supply in formula MxV = PxQ, ju free prices will absorb a redundant money supply (see classical treatment of a money market).

Liberalisation of the prices in Russia has occurred by huge differentiation of growth rates of the prices for production of individual industries. A hook, for example, with 1990 for 1995 a wholesale level on power and oil extracting production, gas, a telecommunication service, transportation rates have increased in 10.000 times. Oil refinings - more than in 12.000 times whereas in price mechanical engineering have grown no more

With hema 23.1

Consequences of liberalisation of the prices

L AND E I* L 'I AND Z ATSI> 1 PRICES

Trim shi not new I I proportions '

Inflation

ІПДСГНКСК G

(Crete nsilllezhej

To I form

Problem исееіаноь. і With і’нч osch'ro »ион* каопіхи and іч> / it і is foamier) JNPZHSNNS |Ч’Н іабе. І noe III \M ____ With ІІ PS finaisosio it is put» '? PrS.I'RNJA ПІП. smolenoe Pnmech іинненне і, Ph - NCHNOS HI

! Compression

І nron іпо; іе7вен іі oi

"RSADS a dog» About

I spheres

! O-grls chep kons'nkmo І potreb ІСНИЯ

I e «with IBO KLN ІІІ.І CH.L e» pwe. ». n | dews» demand and on nn'h-Xj. С.65

' economy Questions 199Х-with 20

Resources and final on і rebiteljami resources. A hook inflation of costs in specific (Russian) has been generated we will convict.

G rafik 2.3.1.

Comparative price development in the basic branches of production of goods in 1995-1996 1г. (To level of 1991).*

voprosy economy.-1998.-N1.-S.21.

Initial installation monetaristskoj concepts is that: the rise in prices always is a consequence (and never is the reason) a monetary growth. At us on the contrary: the rise in prices has generated inflation of costs. On ejuj to a basis there was a transformation of inflation of costs in crisis of defaults of payment.

Some analysts believe besides. That price stabilisation achievement {stabilisation of rates of the offer of money on a low level) was carried out by the conscious policy of a long neopayment of the executed state orders, underfinancing of the articles of expenditures on public account confirmed by parliament (delay of payments of pensions and wages to workers of budgetary sphere).

In case of a neopayment гоеударсі vom it zakachannyh an item and services production proi zvoditsja also passes to consume to gels. But money for it

Manufacturers of nanosecond poduchajut. Deficiency of money accrues. In this case inflationary factors do not cease to act at all - the money resources directed on satisfaction of inflationary inquiries separate manufacturer »! Go the states compulsorily are withdrawn from krugooborota means of the functioning enterprises. Differently, inflationary monetary demand of one economic subjects here is compensated by artificial removal of demand of other economic subjects. Application of a demand pull during continue telnogo time is capable to paralyse or even to destroy the enterprises. Industrial complexes and

The whole branches-donors.

N _ Lmedev believes, that directly on the budget it is necessary now no more than 10-15 % of all defaults of payment in economy. But budgetary money can become the primary source of a chain of defaults of payment. By some estimations, one rouble, no-time not paid by the budget under the obligations, generates today 6-7 rbl. of defaults of payment on all chain eko n an ohm and ches To And X about g but 11 і ¾ni j [XIII].

Enormous quantity of the defaults of payment, caused a stop of many productions, decrease in investments, increase in unemployment and.mnogie other negative phenomena, on any strange logic are justified by that. What is the destructive actions are ostensibly necessary for improvement and economy stabilisation. It is considered, that by one rice trnktnvno іі politicians of the Central Bank in the conditions of deep crisis it is possible to decide economic and even social problems of the country. (For June, 1st, 1997 the accounts payable of the industrial, transport and agricultural enterprises have made 1176 bln. rbl. It approximately half of gross national product. Arrears only in the federal budget have made 74,1 bln. rbl. It approximately half of collected taxes. Budget defaults of payment under the salary - 2,5 bln. rbl., the indebtedness on payments from a pension fund - 15,2 bln. rbl.) [XIV].

2.3.2. A problem restoration a turn-over nogo the capital and se consequences. Two previous circumstances (differentiation of price proportions and defaults of payment as conscious weed gika) have generated a special kind of inflation of costs. So, the state order not paid in target dates generates at the enterprises of nonpayment of wages, a neopayment on обяіательсівам to suppliers anergii, the raw materials, completing items, a neopayment of cost of transportation, credits etc. These defaults of payment generate a chain of the subsequent, and also a shortage of taxes in the budget. On this basis appears some kind of a vicious vicious circle. To break off it at level of the separate enterprises it is possible exclusively by introduction суррогаты* money.

Artificial "hunger" on money resources deprives of the enterprise of circulating assets with all consequences following from here. neli in 1991 in structure of circulating assets of the enterprises the ownership capital (60 %) prevailed. That in the first half of the year 1996 it made only 10,5 % (tab. 2.3.1).

Structure of a working capital of the industry (%).*.

Table 23.1.

’ 1991

1

і

1992 1993 1994 ! 1995 j

1 f

1 half-year

1996

Ownership capital 60 і

і ’

130 25.

1

16, 17,7 • 10,5
1 і

і

1 І5 6 і

1

і

Credits of banks ’ 13

I

11

I:

! 93 15,8 12,2
The creditor ; 28 і 60 ' 65,

1

• 72

і

68.5 I 77,2
The indebtedness. ^-1 1

L

! 2 1 1

і

Including bjudzhe that G " 7Т І Ї G jM.l 1 І6

The note: the sum of elements of a working capital is not equal 100 %

Because of complexity of the account of circulating assets and a rounding off error.

* Klepach L//economy Questions.-1997.-N4. With. 48.

Existing character of the offer of money - (subject to requirements of financing budgetary defnippa and a rate of exchange) promotes that unsatisfactory demand of the enterprises for money resources is compensated by defaults of payment and bills. Monetary circulation drops out of accounts of the enterprises with consumers and suppliers. Instead of the economy based on the bank credit, the economy kommercheskoju crediting where "bad debts” the enterprises (defaults of payment) are shifted not on banks was generated. So, if in prereform economy for 100 rbl. of accounts payable it was necessary 120-150 rbl. of bank funds, in days of crisis - only 15-16 rbl. Increase in the relative contribution of external financing in a working capital нредприяіий e? Conditions of "freezing" of the monetary offer becomes the additional monetary factor promoting growth of defaults of payment.

Growth the credit of the Orsk indebtedness is expressed in slowing down oborachivaemosti the capital, and the problem of defaults of payment turns around decrease in operating ratios.

Decrease in level of profitability in key industries is observed from second half of 1995. Profitability of sales, for example, the industry enterprises has decreased from 26 % in the beginning of 1995 to less than 10 % in 1996. To accrue there were fast scales ubyjuchnyh predprija gy: on transport (for January-October, 1996) - from 41 % to 59 %, in building - from 24 % to 37 %, in the industry - from 27 % to 42 % ’.

Despite inflation decrease, simultaneously in the big scales volumes real (deflirirovannoj) profits - almost in 4.5 times for 10 months 1996 года2 were reduced. Aggravation of a financial position of the enterprises reduced investment activity in industrial sphere (more in detail in the following paragraph).

2.3.3. Growth of demand for import products. Working capital washing away, artificial understating of profitability and decrease in investment activity, reduction of effective demand of the population had two consequences.

First, occurred it is compressed not proizvods tvennoj spheres, and first of all branches of final consumption (branches of a mineral industry and thermal power stations had priorities). Siad productions should mention budgetary sphere - receipt of taxes in a public finance of Russia was reduced, there was a situation of budgetary crisis. According to tab. 2.3.2. It is possible to assert, that unique branches. Which have strengthened the position, monopolists are: electric power industry and especially export-focused

‘ •hxuepi. 1W.>!. With 17 7 there «with

Fuel industry. Increase of the importance of transport is connected with a monopoly position of some its branches.

Table 2.3.2.

Structure of tax revenues io to economy sectors _ and to industries of Russia (%) ♦

Branch 1994 г7 ~] Г1995 1996
І Іромьппленность 157.7 ^ і 50.99 42.73
Including: the electro-power 5.98 | 1 3.20 6,15
The fuel 11.38 __! ! 11.56 15,91
The metallurgical 7.92 1 і 5,52 2,92
Chemical and petrochemical 3.28 ! 3.47 ; і.?? і
The machine-building 10,82 7,01 і 6,72
Wood, derevoobrabatyvajushchaja and 2.09 2.03 і І 1.23
The pulp-and-paper 1

і_______

1
The easy 1.68 j ; і.98 . 0.86 ’ і
The food 9,80 7,29 5.79 J
Other industries 4.80 8.93 1.42 J
Agriculture 2.8 ____ 3.8 * 1-2 і
Transport 12.0 9,0 116,6 І
Building 10.2 j ! 7,7 J $, 4
1 Trade, public catering. 7,9 Il 1.6 ; JU, 6
' logistics and sales 1 1
• Banking 1 1.1 2.7 і
і І Ірочие sektory economy 9,3 1 15.8 , 17,8 1

* Corporate world.-14-17 November 1997.-N44.-S.5.

Secondly, compression of industrial sphere in branches of final consumption and the general aggravation finansovoju positions of the enterprises not only reduced investment activity, but also conducted to capital flight and work abroad, demand for a foreign exchange grew, scales of speculative tradings on equity markets and in system of state credit obligations increased. Money in the country is. But they or leave in an illegal turn-over, or them hide in "jug", or they "will emigrate" that border. That fact, in particular, testifies to it, that in 1996 from an order of 245 bln. rbl. of money savings in Russia on a gain of investments in banks and on purchase of securities is expended

9S

Only 50 bln., whereas 195 bln. rbl. (or 39 mlrd, dollars) has gone on purchase foreign валюты1.

These two circumstances (compression of branches konechnoju consumption and capital flight from industrial sphere) have supplied growth of demand for import products. To it promoted at that, that the parity of the prices for domestic and import analogues of the goods was in favour of import.

On many items domestic prices have exceeded world level. In particular, submitted on the beginning of 1996, a parity of domestic prices and the prices of the world markets made: on automobile petrol 1.92; io to diesel fuel - 1,77; io to coked coals - 1,38; on a top internal floor-mat і at - 1.10. The similar situation develops and with the prices for all kinds black and colour металлов2.

As to the goods of final consumption in favour of import worked besides a parity of the prices also to a cameo і in production. On a commodity market of final consumption the import share has made 54 %. At domination of the import goods in a retail turnover of the large cities defining price dynamics, a firmness of prices can be supplied at the expense of fixing of the exchange rate of rouble, as it was characteristic for dews with and j with to about j refor m y.

Growth of demand for import was promoted also by aggravation of export possibilities of domestic commodity producers in connection with the rouble exchange rate in real terms. At the same time peregok the capital from industrial sphere in speculative, including on currency the market, only facilitated possibilities for import payment.

The chain of succession of events in the field of pricing after liberalisation of the prices has turned back their stabilisation. Inflation has fallen. But thus

’ economy Questions. 1997 N ”1. S ' •!

■ Not tannin And And ju proelo junie krpiju ro «ilsm> P irommi§jasnne»; ti fpnlni'japs about і.морс*пение and рссір> to «ри.1.щия прскірнягич І ’ опріч t. - ‘ kOIK'VIIMI ’ MM7. V.xJ

Priorities have been given import; blasting export possible і to it conducted to domestic production recession, unemployment growth; a situation with defaults of payment to decide it was not possible, and therefore the bases for economic growth of nanosecond has increased.

As to liberalisation of interest rates, go the chain of succession of events of speculative trading legalisation in sphere of financing transactions has ended with linkage of money in "pyramid" I TO. Similar linkage of "hot money" promoted, in the end to notable decrease in inflation, but hardly an ego.mozhno to consider as the basis for economic growth if profits thus have concentrated in the financial organisations, and budget gap has increased.

The interdepartmental balance commission created by the joint order of the State tax service of the Russian Federation, Treasury of the Russian Federation, Federal service of tax police of the Russian Federation and Federal service of Russia on affairs about an inconsistency and to financial improvement, has generalised data on 210 enterprises, being large defaulters to the budget [XV]. Commission conclusions about the reasons of a low collecting of taxes and crisis of payments (during 1996-1997) represent the big interest.

Not monetary methods of account legislatively and buhgalterski are equated to purchase and sale transactions, as a result cheju not monetary and monetary accounts in accounts department lawfully mix up in the general gain. Velede і out of e that not monetary accounts on 210 predprija tijam the industries have made almost 73 % from all accounts (accounts by bills of different degree of liquidity, accounts by method of clearing, a barter exchange).

According to the Russian economical barometre unprecedented dew of a share of barter operations - about 6 % in 1992 now is observed

To 41 % in first half of 1997. Variety of indicators testify to that »that this process does not find out while slowing down signs. Approximately at 1/4 parts of the enterprises the barter share was below 30 %, at 1/3 - from 30 to 70 % and still at 1/3 - over 70 % ‘.

The primitive commodity-commodity turn-over of nanosecond grows out of actions of laws of the market where the price is result of a parity of a supply and demand. It is result of the arrangement of the parties: commodity operations can be made as under the zero prices, and io infinitely big if the parties have convinced one another, that their goods very much cost much. As a result the commodity turn-over creates an illusory or "virtual" gain at which I arise g not realised or "virtual" fiscal obligations and kojurye осуіцееі vljajut on not market "virtual" foams.

It is obvious, that as at not monetary accounts money there is no source for account with fiscal system are not gained. Accounts with the federal budget in the method of offset exceed 90 % of all tax revenues from large industrial the enterprise; real free money in the budget of 8 % from the added sums (the exchequer tax clearings, practically all major concerns prevail focus itself on будуmate offsets) act only an order.

.analiz has shown, that practically more than 80 % of the enterprises not in a condition to settle up with fiscal system in the monetary method because of absence at them corresponding resources as a result of not monetary method of formation of a gain. Boles half of considered enterprises gain a money supply in the volumes which are not exceeding the wages fund more than on 40 %. In 1997 about half of production of the Russian industry it has appeared introduced of sphere of monetary regulation. And in this sense (besides tax arrears) barter acts as the real factor reducing efficiency of traditional anti-inflationary actions but stimulation of an aggregate demand and issue juvarov. From here follows, that application of retaliatory fiscal measures. Directed on search and arrest of accounts predprija lsh іі. іі аіельщиков. bessmyslenen.

It has been revealed also, that between methods and terms account exists certain interrelation: than above not monetary component in a gain of the enterprises (barter), is especially long account term. As a result the account average due date makes 6 months whereas in the western and traditional Soviet methodology of the financial analysis oborachivaemost it was always estimated in days.

Enterprise existence at very long terms of account with consumers means, this enterprise possesses sufficient resources to allocate to their consumers (debtors) for long term. It was found out, however, that it is nanosecond an ownership capital of the enterprise which are in a turn-over (not own resources of the enterprise, kojurye can be to some extent lent to its consumers (debtors) in the form of commodity loans), and extra means. All kinds of drawing (crediting) are thus used: debts to other enterprises for the goods delivered by them or services; a dale and before banks; vnugrennmj a debt (debts under the salary, bills under the future production of the goods).

Extra means in volumes more than can be carried 6 months of a gain of work of the enterprise to the category of defaults of payment (or very much deferred payments). In the chronic indebtedness debts before other enterprises - 56 % from a total debt, and defaults of payment to fiscal system - 29 % prevail, debts to banks make about 8 %.

Extra means are used by the enterprises for formation of the circulating assets, thus maintenance of extra means (or their cover by real turnaround assets of the debtor) nadaet. The Total sum of means in production and means in accounts appears less volume of extra means. In due course this rupture increases. Харакіернсчику обороты* means surveyed irednrija bend dasg schedule 2.3.2.

J rafik 2.3. 2.

Dynamics of structure of circulating assets and nejuchiikov them are wet і ija. *

Enterprise circulating assets

Sources to Wednesday I in нредприяI pi

11лошади symbols correspond to statistical data. It is represented by data: Defaults of payment: and the nanosecond bayonet pricks, and zero we do not take//the Permission і vennoe the appendix «Russian gas/y»?.-7 March 1998г.

The interdepartmental financial commission does a conclusion with which it is impossible to disagree: frank devaluation or inflation of extra means, rate of this devaluation account is observed.

So, for example, at a total sum of extra means of 9 bln. rbl. О/\О "KamAZ" has actual balances in a turn-over vseju only 2,4 bln. rbl. (from them: 1,1 bln. rbl. in production, and 1.3 bln. rbl. - in accounts). Thus predprija me has losses for the sum of 6,7 bln. rbl. Maintenance makes 27 copecks on one rouble of a debt (2,4 bln. rbl.: 9 bln. rbl.).

As the interdepartmental commission marks, creditors of the enterprise probably feel availability of a problem, but scales of the future afflictions they is obvious not before a floor g aki.

The similar phenomenon has today system character, it snojstvekno not to the separate enterprise. And certain set of agents of the market and the state. The chain works: the "virtual" prices pass in "virtual" debts and, hence, defaults of payment as an inevitable consequence of this chain, debts which never and will be reset by nobody generate.

In a context of interrelation of nominal and real streams it is possible to draw following conclusions:

1. As a push to occurrence of defaults of payment discrepancy of price proportions to level and the composition of costs defining pogrebnost real sectors in incomes for balanced reproduction acts.

2. The existing economic system allows to shift the inflationary tax extracted by the enterprises from krugooborota of a working capital on consumers.

3. As it is a question not only of end production consumers arises and was stable the situation of defaults of payment of the enterprises one another and to the budget progresses. These defaults of payment should be considered as the suppressed inflation. In a situation of 1997, that is in the conditions of inflation decrease, the basic function under indemnification of price disproportions and financial disbalansov has passed to defaults of payment.

Overcoming of the given tendencies requires, that dynamics of a money supply was planned as settlement (instead of target) size in sootve§sgvin with really developing demand for money supplies not only in the financial markets, but also in industrial sphere;

Dynamics of investment activity it was replaced with the opposite. However to speak about potential exhaustion slada investments while it is premature.

Schedule 2.4. G

Dynamics of investments in economy of Russia [XVI].

It also predetermines logic of our further reasonings in the given paragraph.

Let's result some figures about a condition of capacities. Today in the industry of an order of 57 % of all cars and the equipment it is maintained over 10 years. Middle age of the equipment used in the industry and cars by present time makes 14 years. It means, that average actual service life of an active part of funds exceeds 28 years at the established standard period 12.6 years (for comparison: in pre-crisis years average actual service life and technicians made 24 years) 1.

As show accounts, with \chetom only one physical (disregarding moral) deterioration on replacement of the out-of-date active part of a fixed capital accumulated in economy nearby 350 mlrd, the dollars today are required, and actually only cars and the equipment - 185 bln. dollars At existing rates of depreciation on renovation (7 %) ezhejudnye expenses for compensation of leaving of an active part of a fixed capital are evaluated at level of 18-19 billion dollars 2. Whether there are sufficient financial assets for this purpose?

As material basis of investments savings act. Cumulative annual gross savings in Russia are evaluated today in 670-710 trln, rbl. (about 120-125 billion doll, in a year), chgo at first sight not іак and мало3. However the real situation on economy sectors speaks about an unsuccessful situation.

Savings of sector of the government because of significant budget gap - size negative.

In sector of the enterprises of industrial sphere the overwhelming part of gross national savings in the country (do to the last data - more 5i

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A source: HAFIZOVA GULPUR BADRETDIIOVNA. INFLATIONARY PROCESSES In the conditions of TRANSITIVE ECONOMY. The DISSERTATION on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci.. 1998

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