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insufficiently high rates of quantitative growth of the Russian economy from the point of view of scale of problems

But, unfortunately, the problem consists not only in structural perekoyose. Public system of korporativno-criminal type well familiar to us by the nature is stagnant, first of all in force ushcherbnosti its segmented market, inevitably high costs for the manufacturer and absence of the mechanism of long-term reproduction and increase ekonomiyocheskih resources.

Yes, average rates of economic growth for the last four years were rather high, but, first, in 2002 they sokrayotilis to modest four with small percent, and secondly, nabljudayo
lis in absolutely special favorable conditions — combinations of heavy prices for the basic subjects of the Russian toplivno-raw export to effect of sharp real depreciation of the national currency in a course predshestvovavyoshego to the beginning of growth of financial crisis. With disappearance of these special usloyovy growth rates of gross national product are reduced to 3—4 % a year that is not enough for gluyobokih qualitative changes in economy and company in foreseeable historical prospect.

In particular, such growth rates will not allow to solve a problem of employment of the population about which it has been told above; will not allow to raise essentially the general standard of well-being and incomes, to liquidate the centres of stagnant poverty and poverty.

Such rates seem absolutely unacceptable for the decision probleyomy formations in the country of a high-grade public finance — a problem which the next years will stand extremely sharply. I already said above, that the sizes of a public finance today at all adekvatyony to scale of unsolved problems facing to the country. And so, we have all bases to be afraid, that at existing system the country and is in the long term doomed to the same balanced "minibudget" which incomes will chronically not suffice even on a worthy payment of state employees.

Certainly, a problem of corruption and incompetence of a state machinery one increase of salaries to its officers not to decide. But without such povysheyonija it is impossible to liquidate system of "feeding" from a post, priyovlech in machinery of state of the people, basically capable to reach priyoemlemogo level of professional competence. With such budget as now, at the country never will be modern armed forces, nezayovisimoj judicial system, fair and professional pravoohranitelyonyh bodies, and "informal" justiyotsii it will be impossible to interrupt self-reproduction of vicious system even by means of the most sincere politichesyokoj will.

Will not rescue and offered in quality almost panacea reduction gosuyodarstvennogo the device, even the most radical. First, for example, the same judicial system suffers from objective shortage of judges for operative consideration of growing quantity of affairs; about making redundant in gosudarstvenyo
Ache social and penitentsiarnoj systems the madman, and in general can speak seriously only: the list of spheres where position in the foreseeable future neizbezhyono will remain critical, it is possible to continue very long. And in-vtoyoryh, mass reduction of public sector at impossibility private a little considerably to increase employment is a direct way to social and political instability. So that to "save" on the salary bjudzhetniyokov it is not simply problematic, but also it is dangerous.

Cannot be free for the budget and maintenance at least umerenyonogo economic growth: repair and building of roads, maintenance raboyotosposobnosti national networks of communications, preservation of the environment — all it requires inevitable large expenses from federal bjudzheyota. Overcoming of a raw orientation of economy if such problem is delivered, also cannot be realised without certain budgetary expenses: insurance and crediting of bargains on export of hi-tech production all over the world is carried out with the assistance of the state agencies, and Russia at all desire cannot become a happy exception of this rule. And after all still there are at least the bare investments in buduyoshchee development what expenses for an infrastructure are, the general and proyofessionalnoe formation, financing of some kinds of research and development etc.

C this point of view present "victory" of the government over budget gap by mechanical reduction of federal costs and pereklayodyvanija a significant part of state functions requiring financing on regional and local budgets — achievement of doubtful character. The valid reforming of economy and company if on that there will be a political will, all the same will require use znachitelyonyh public resources, and the sizes of a budget system, as well as it harakyoter, inevitably should be others.

Therefore provided even optimistic scenarios miniyosterstva of economy intermediate term economic dynamics (the gain of gross national product to 6 % a year) actually means, that at least in the foreseeable future the rupture separating Russia from the developed countries, essentially will not be reduced. Hence, cardinal improvement of position in such vitally vazhyonyh areas, as maintenance of high-grade employment able-bodied naseyo
lenija which would correspond to level accumulated human kapiyotala, a worthy standard of living for the majority of citizens, stabilisation deyomograficheskoj situations, maintenance of safety of borders, etc. at sohraneyonii to expect a present situation it is not necessary. As a result even at otsutyostvii absolute recessions or sharp slowing down of growth Russia will be ostavatyosja huge slabozaselennoj and maloosvoennoj territory, economic otyostalost which will be more and more obvious against tightened to stanyodartam EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY Central and the Eastern Europe and dynamical «new industyorialnyh economy» Asia.

In the end growth percent are important not as those — all of us dolyozhno to interest creation of economic possibilities for overcoming otyostavanija or, in other words, country survivals, preservation Russian gosuyodarstvennosti and the sovereignty. To understand it, there is enough posmotyoret on a card and to see, that at Russia most protjazhennye borders with rather dangerous and unpredictable regions of the world, and in this connection to evaluate masyoshtaby expenses necessary in the nearest 10—12 years for armed forces, a housing-and-municipal infrastructure, medicine, formation, preodoleyonie demographic crisis, modern development of Siberia and strengthening of our economic sovereignty in the Far East.

In Russia such mutant of market economy is created, which in prinyotsipe not in a condition now and is able never (if it not izmeyonit radically) to decide or at least to facilitate the decision vysheperechisyolennyh problems.

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A source: Javlinsky Grigory Alekseevich. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEM of Russia And the PROBLEM of ITS MODERNIZATION. The DISSERTATION on competition of a scientific degree of the Doctor of Economics. Moscow - 2005. 2005

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