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Changes in international military-political conditions


1980th were marked by extraordinary growth of military costs. From the end
1980th the international military-political conditions were sharply changed. Cold war has terminated, the Warsaw agreement has been fluffed up, the USSR, number of armed forces and defensive budgets of both superstates, especially Russian has broken up, were essentially reduced.

The end of cold war has not brought neither the world, nor stability. On the contrary, decrease in the importance of nuclear restraint from two superstates has untied regional, religious and national conflicts, the quantity and which scale only increases. In 1990th the international situation became much more difficult, than in bipolar years of cold war [15, е.19].
The USA, remained practically unique superstate, have accepted an establishment role of "a new world order», including by application of military force. Under the guidance of the USA in April, 1999 at a meeting of heads of the states in Washington «the Strategic concept of NATO» has been accepted, proclaimed the right of the block to interference in affairs of any country of the world if they, according to NATO, threaten the vital and strategic interests of the countries-participants of the organisation or stir to democracy advancement. The enormous economic and technological separation from all other states of the world supplies the USA ample opportunities at acceptance of those or other important military decisions, and also at realisation of scale military-technical programs, excessive for other countries, as for example, creation of national system ABOUT.
Undoubtedly, that changes in geopolitical conditions have required working out of new military strategy for which in turn, the analysis of geopolitical threats became the major element. In 90th uncountable attempts of various structures of the analysis of possible threats for the USA, however in the given context important understanding of how political and military leaders of the USA considered international military-political conditions that should be reflected in formation of corresponding military strategy have been undertaken. Following threats to some extent are reflected in official documents [130; 131; 101] also show an item of the USA and understanding of a context of decision-making on military building.
First, the USA are ready to interfere with diverse regional conflicts. For example, in the Near East Iraq and Iran can interfere with petroleum export while in the visible future access to petroleum remains national requirement for the USA. The potential for the conflict will exist also until in region safety for the strategic partner of the USA - Israel will not be supplied. The North Korea, from the point of view of the USA, will represent still in high degree unpredictable threat for Japan and South Korea. Besides, internal conflicts and humanitarian crises can cause instability in economically backward states in regions where the USA have national interests.
Secondly, some states can lose the control over distribution of the newest technologies which military men or terrorists can use. Modern technologies have double - civil and military - appointment more often, and it makes difficulty for access restraint to the newest technologies of potentially hostile USA of the states and not state forces.
The USA and the countries similar to them could appear especially vulnerable because of distribution of results of their own researches and workings out.
Thirdly, interests and a life of citizens of the USA can remain under the threat because of diverse transnational dangers. More and more refined terrorists will continue to threaten directly to a life of Americans and to try to undermine a policy of the USA and their allies. Traffic in drugs and the international organised crime will ignore still frontiers. Uncontrollable streams of migrants will destabilise from time to time regions of the world and to threaten interests of the USA.
Fourthly, the territory of the USA can be subjected a direct military attack. There is a potential for the further distribution of intercontinental ballistic missiles and the weapon of mass destruction. Growing threat - information war (attacks to an infrastructure through computer information networks).
It is important to notice, that on a level with direct military calls obvious threat proceeds from numerous terrorist groups. Domination of the USA on arena of usual kinds of arms can force to use opponents asymmetric means for an attack as it was is shown on September, 11th, 2001 the Aggressor can to try to avoid direct military confrontation, using in exchange such means, as terrorism, application nuclear, biological and a chemical weapons, information war or ecological sabotage.
However, despite the saved geopolitical instability, in the end of the XX-th century interest of the American company was largely switched to internal affairs. Bolshee significance was acquired by economic questions. So, in 1989 three quarters of Americans considered an economic call from Japan as the strongest threat of national security [47, with. 5]. For the first time representatives of Chamber of commerce and industry have been included in national security Advice that meant the termination of historical division of safety and economy. The radical changes which were taking place in a global economic competitiveness in 1980th, have strengthened growing interest to that became known as «economic safety».
Completely not fine economic condition of the USA during the period after the termination of cold war partially became a consequence of increase in a defence cost in Reagan's presidency and simultaneous tax cut. Besides, in industry development unfortunate trends while industrial power of other countries, especially Japan and Germany, and then and China increased were observed. As the USA continued to accumulate a negative trade balance, the standard of life of their citizens decreased. In 1985 trade in the hi-tech goods was reduced to negative level, and by 1990 the real hourly salary of Americans has appeared below level of the middle of 1960th [103, with. 27].
The investment in this problem was introduced by employment reduction in the defensive industry after the termination of cold war. Though at first reductions were gradual, in 1995 of jobs was already on 2 million less, than in 1985 If to consider indirect influence of employment on local suppliers and services this number should be increased at least twice.
That circumstance, that reductions in the defensive budget have occurred when in economy negative tendencies were scheduled, has aggravated consequences of reductions of jobs. The leading civil enterprises also have faced serious economic problems in hi-tech sectors of the industry (for example in aircraft construction and in production of computers). In the early nineties economic growth was reduced to a minimum, in 1991 the economy even has tested reduction for 0,5 %.
Besides, the USA lost technological lead in many important spheres. The research of twelve critical technologies conducted in 1990 by Chamber of commerce and industry of the USA, has shown, that Japan already advances the USA in five of these technologies and fast moves forward in five others [68, with. 6], and research of National scientific fund of the USA [125, with. 157], conducted in 1992, has revealed, that the USA have lagged behind Japan in spheres of materials with the improved properties, the newest semi-conductor devices, technologies of the digital image, a data storage with high density of placing and optoelectronics, i.e., in all major technologies of the future necessary for economic growth of the country. In many cases lead of Japan was observed in kommertsializatsii research and development, but in some areas Japan surpassed the USA even at level of basic researches.
After coming to power of administration of Clinton in 1992 to a role of the head of the Council of economic advisers of the US president it has been nominated Laura
Tyler which could achieve realisation of an active industrial policy in the field of a highly technological complex. By 1993 the economy has restored the former growth, and to the middle 1990 left on level of annual growth in 4 % and more, and lifting was accompanied by low inflation and insignificant unemployment. Many experts connect it with sharp development of information technologies and the Internet, and also sphere of services. The industrial goods which comprise high technologies, made in 1990th about 20 % of all volume of trade in commodities and services [102, with. 436]. The Sales volume of the technological goods made in the USA is especially great in sphere of information technologies, in the aerospace industry and electronics on which share 85 % of total export of the technological goods in 1994 of the USA were necessary almost is also the largest the exporter of technological "know-how" and intellectual property. In this sphere of the USA have excess of export over import more than three times in comparison with excess in 1,3 times in sphere of production made with use of high technologies [73, with. 97]. At the same time, despite the active industrial policy, deficiency of the foreign trade balance of the industry continued to increase, only partially compensating to proficiency of the foreign trade balance of branch of services.
Since 1989 as already it was marked above, the defensive complex, including the defensive industry and MO, has liberated about 2 million persons while the able-bodied population aggregate number has increased with 125 to 140 million persons; the share of a defence cost has been reduced from 25 % of the budget to 15 % and from 5,5 % of gross national product to 3 % (see table 1). Thus, the defensive industry practically in any way directly did not promote economy growth in 1990th the Contribution consisted in decrease in a defence cost and liberation of means for other national programs, liberation of competent experts and capacities for civil programs, a technological transfer in civil economy and positive foreign trade balance.
Geopolitical and economic realities should be reflected in new military strategy of the USA. In October, 1993 MO has published the document under the name «the Review by a principle from below-upwards» [130] (English Bottom-up Review) which has scheduled planned transformation VS. As the review affirmed, that it would be reasonable to support such military power which would be enough for a victory not in one large-scale war, and in two large regional conflicts similar to war with Iraq in 1991, occurring
Almost simultaneously.

Table 1. Military costs and military employment With!

TSA

Year

Costs MO in % of the federal budget

Share of military costs in gross national product, in %

Aggregate number taken in MO (million people)

Volume of employment in defensive branch (million people)

Able-bodied population aggregate number (million people)

1976

23,6

5,1

3,041

1,690

96,115

1977

23,4

4,8

3,013

1,730

96,684

1978

22,5

4,7

2,997

1,765

100,838

1979

22,8

4,6

2,947

1,860

103,374

1980

22,5

4,9

2,979

1,990

107,261

1981

23,0

5,1

3,041

2,085

109,910

1982

24,7

5,7

3,075

2,290

111,446

1983

25,4

6,0

3,142

2,415

112,884

1984

25,9

5,8

3,184

2,735

114,701

1985

25,9

6,0

3,249

2,980

116,689

1986

26,8

6,1

3,260

3,315

118,947

1987

27,3

6,0

3,292

3,625

121,088

1988

26,5

5,7

3,219

3,430

122,927

1989

25,8

5,5

3,239

3,275

125,046

1990

23,1

5,1

3,140

3,115

126,343

1991

19,8

4,5

3,051

3,045

126,722

1992

20,7

4,7

2,825

2,840

128,157

1993

19,8

4,3

2,661

2,620

129,440

1994

18,4

3,9

2,532

2,460

132,205

1995

17,2

3,6

2,390

2,315

133,708

1996

16,2

3,4

2,316

2,210

134,889

1997

16,1

3,2

2,250

2,215

137,335

1998

15,5

3,0

2,177

2,190

138,761

1999

15,3

3,0

2,140

2,210

140,300

2000

14,8

2,9

2,111

2,185

141,900

2001

14,9

2,8

2,088

2,200

143,600

Source: It is made on 135.

Within the next several years after acceptance «the Review on
To principle from below-upwards »serious steps to achievement of the purposes designated in the review have been undertaken. However many of them have not been reached. In particular, problems on purchases of the newest systems of arms have not been carried out: a shock submarine"Sivulf"and bombers B-2. Moreover, many experts have subjected to criticism the"ascending"review [77;
70; 85; 86; 83], asserting, that this plan, contrary to its name, is the "descending", extraordinary politized document, developed to exaggerate threats of national security and to save, how much it is possible, budget MO and existing structure VS.
Nevertheless, the given document has defined strategy of administration of the USA on military building and corresponding levels of purchases of arms in 1990th Despite widespread scepticism, this document had very important two consequences for re-structuring VPK. First, he has established a preliminary minimum level for the defensive budget. Secondly, priorities in this plan were accurate signals for definition of total amount of costs for research and development and the defensive order. Requiring preservation sufficient VS for sharing in two simultaneous large interventions, the plan showed, that costs for staff, operational and working costs could reduce overhead charges to purchases. Besides, the plan showed, that requirement for the raised mobility it would be possible to satisfy by means of already developed platforms, such as aircraft carriers and large military-transport aeroplanes. Considering the scenario of two simultaneous wars, followed support in a condition of constant readiness for start in production of existing generations of systems, to fill possible losses in large conflicts. Modernisation of armed forces would concentrate on steady development of the advanced information technologies, technologies of communication and gauges for existing platforms. As a result in 1990th the quantity of large programs of workings out of following generation of arms would be extremely limited [106, with. 81].
«The review by a principle from below-upwards» has defined development VS till 2001 when new president George Bush-junior has started to carry out radical changes in military strategy of the USA, simultaneously having increased the defensive budget to 379 bln. dollars that comes nearer to level of a defence cost in escalation of cold war in the early eighties These changes assume, in particular, failure of readiness for simultaneous management military actions in two regions of the world. Bush-junior plans to reduce considerably number of armed forces, first of all land forces. It is supposed also, that the main attention will be switched from Europe to East Asia where an increasing role will play Naval Forces and the Air Forces. Main danger, according to a new management of the USA, proceeds now from the countries of Pacific region, namely China and the North Korea. In this connection MO considerably will reduce number of the Russian purposes and by 100 % will increase number of the Chinese. Thus unilateral reduction will allow the USA to restore the necessary number of warheads at any moment. Besides, the majority of strategic bombers will be relocated more close to China, namely on island Guam.
Thus, the metasystem of the defensive industry in 1990th has undergone considerable changes. The most important changes - reduction of threat of global war and increase of asymmetric threats (attack to information networks and terrorism). In these conditions military strategy of the USA within 1990th has been directed on a victory in two large parallel regional conflicts similar to war with Iraq in 1991, on preservation thus about 85 % of potential of times of cold war. At the same time the accent in the politician was displaced from military opposition to economic expansion. For example, in 1990th Clinton administration actively agitated for economy globalisation, relying on the technological and organizational superiority of corporations of the USA. Thus, reduction VS and re-structuring of the defensive industry became the major problem in years after the termination of cold war in the field of national security.
What it is possible to tell about a situation in Russia in comparison with a situation in the USA? It is obvious, that Russia and the USA in the geopolitical plan have faced an identical situation, however considerably excellent internal situation in Russia has predetermined other development both military strategy, and the defensive industry.
In Russia in the late eighties and the beginning of 1990th defensive costs have decreased in much bolshej degrees than in the USA, from the end of 1990th they have started to grow. Issue of military production in 1998 has increased by 5 %, in 1999 - on 27 %, and in 2000 - on 50 %. Nevertheless, in 2000 it has made only 15 % of level of 1991 Moreover, unlike the USA which all to forces aspired to support former level of working out new ViVT, in Russia during this time there were no essential programs of research and development. At the same time employment at the Russian defensive enterprises has decreased only for 56 %, and practically any of 1 700 Russian defensive enterprises has not been closed, though average congestion made them only 20 %. Poor financial streams were distributed on the enterprises by insignificant shares.
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A source: BOLSHAKOV Zahar Anatolevich. the Basic tendencies of development of military-industrial corporations of the USA in 1990th years / the Dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Econ.Sci. - Moscow: the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of economic and the international relations. - 179 with.. 2002

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